Opening day is fast approaching, as the teams buses have left their spring training facilities and are heading to their home parks to get ready for the season opener. As a player, you have high hopes for what you can achieve both as a team and as an individual. This is the time of year where players sit back and try to imagine where there careers are headed, and what they can do to establish themselves as one of the games best. No matter your age or standing in the league, your main focus right now is to either stay healthy or if you're already injured, get healthy.
The Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies debate as to whom is the best team in baseball took a turn in the Red Sox favor as this week we have learned that Chase Utley's knee is not looking very promising. At this point the report is that he and the team are doing everything they can in order to avoid surgery. If his injury does not start to look better and the discomfort does not go away, the Phils may be without their All-Star second basemen for quite a while. This would put trmendous pressure on Ryan Howard to carry the load that will be left by some combination of Wilson Valdez and newly acquired Luis Castillo. Neither guy can really offer much from an offensive standpoint, especially Castillo who was let go by the Mets while they still owe him $9MM for the 2011 season. I am very interested in seeing what lineup they will go with, but I will provide my own opinion on what I would do:
1. SS Rollins - S
2. LF Ibanez - L
3. 3B Polanco - R
4. 1B Howard - L
5. CF Victorino - S
6. RF Francisco - R
7. C Ruiz -R
8. 2B (Valdez/Castillo) - S
9. Pitcher
This lineup gives the top 3 guys with the higher OBP a chance to get on base in front of Howard. It also avoids the late-inning matchup problems that they had with lefties Utley, Howard, Ibanez all bunched up. At this point Jimmy Rollins hasn't shown power for a couple of years, so use what speed he has left in his legs and hope for a bounce back season. If you think it should look different, comment and let me know what you think, and why!
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
What could have been...
I saw an article online that Buster Olney of ESPN had provided about a once bright shining star in the Toronto Blue Jays system named Dustin McGowan. Most of you probably aren't familiar with the name, but if you were a Toronto fan about 5 years ago, I can guarantee that you would recognize it.
The story can be found here: http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2011/03/13/17599806.html
As far as pitching prospects go, McGowan was it. He is tall, athletic and very competitive. Oh and I almost forgot, he had some of the best stuff I have seen in a long long while. His fastball was in the mid to upper 90's with good movement and improving location. He had a changeup that fell off the table and had a significant gap of MPH between his fastball. But his best pitch was his curve, which ranks in the 75 range on the 20-80 scale and that may be generous. It played better than most because of the velocity and arm angle. I suggest you go and look up some video of him pitching to get an idea of just how talented this kid was. I can remember the day that McGowan, AJ Burnett and Roy Halladay were on the same staff and a lot of teams must have been wondering how they had a chance to win when they were facing the 3 guys with arguably the best arms in the AL East.
It's guys like McGowan that you see come more often than the Pedro Martinez's of the world that deft all logic. Even McGowan had a big frame and the body type that you would project as staying relatively healthy. Some people are just not meant to be, and it's a shame because I would have loved to see him healthy and flashing his plus stuff every 5 days.
The story can be found here: http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2011/03/13/17599806.html
As far as pitching prospects go, McGowan was it. He is tall, athletic and very competitive. Oh and I almost forgot, he had some of the best stuff I have seen in a long long while. His fastball was in the mid to upper 90's with good movement and improving location. He had a changeup that fell off the table and had a significant gap of MPH between his fastball. But his best pitch was his curve, which ranks in the 75 range on the 20-80 scale and that may be generous. It played better than most because of the velocity and arm angle. I suggest you go and look up some video of him pitching to get an idea of just how talented this kid was. I can remember the day that McGowan, AJ Burnett and Roy Halladay were on the same staff and a lot of teams must have been wondering how they had a chance to win when they were facing the 3 guys with arguably the best arms in the AL East.
It's guys like McGowan that you see come more often than the Pedro Martinez's of the world that deft all logic. Even McGowan had a big frame and the body type that you would project as staying relatively healthy. Some people are just not meant to be, and it's a shame because I would have loved to see him healthy and flashing his plus stuff every 5 days.
Friday, February 25, 2011
If you can't beat 'em.. join 'em - What I would do if I were the Cardinals GM
About 48 hours ago the St. Louis Cardinals got some bad news. They learned that Adam Wainwright, their 20 game winner and runner up to Roy Halladay in the Cy Young voting, had significant pain in this throwing elbow. Not good. Fast foward to 24 hours ago, and Wainwright and the medical staff deemed that he go under season ending reconstructive surgery. This is about as bad as it gets for a team that looked like it was going for it this year and had a legitimate shot to possibly win a World Series.
48 hours has gone by, and in that time I did some thinking as to what I would do if I were in charge of the baseball operations over in St. Louis. One thing that I can be certain of is that they are at the very definition of a cross roads. The situation they are in right now reminds me of where Milwaukee was when they traded for CC Sabathia and went for it all while they had a healthy (at the time) Ben Sheets and could contend for a title with a deadly 1 and 2 atop the rotation. Muck like Milwaukee, they face losing a very talented offensive player at first.
The difference between the two however is that St. Louis has not totally gutted their farm system in the process. They have made some cost efficient moves that have made them competitive, but not desperate. By adding Lance Berkman, they have some protection for Matt Holliday and allow Colby Rasmus to hide in that threatening middle of the order. With the addition of a healthy David Freese, this team has plenty of offensive production to support what used to be a solid rotation. Now they lose Wainwright for 12-18 months assuming everything goes smoothely, and they face losing both Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols to free agency in the off season. I think it's all but assumed that Carpenter will be signing elsewhere in the winter, and the Pujols situation has gone from bad to ugly. If the two of those players leave, it puts the Cardinals in a weird position because their offense will be average, and their pitching will lack both depth and quality. Jaime Garcia was good last year, but until he shows he can stay healthy and do it consistently, he's not considered more than a number three starter or an average number two.
So here's an option that the Cardinals must, and most likely are considering: rebuild. This would mean trading Chris Carpenter and getting some value for him while he's still healthy and has a lot of potential return. If you do the deal now, you would get more in return because the team acquiring him would have a full season rather than less than half if it were at the trading deadline. If you move Matt Holliday also, you are freeing up a ton of money, and can start building around Colby Rasmus for the 2013 season when Wainwright returns from Tommy John. Let's face it, the Cardinals cannot make up for the (just over) 6 wins a game that Wainwright gives them according to WAR projections from FanGraphs. They have to do what's right for the organization and try to recoup some value while they still can.
48 hours has gone by, and in that time I did some thinking as to what I would do if I were in charge of the baseball operations over in St. Louis. One thing that I can be certain of is that they are at the very definition of a cross roads. The situation they are in right now reminds me of where Milwaukee was when they traded for CC Sabathia and went for it all while they had a healthy (at the time) Ben Sheets and could contend for a title with a deadly 1 and 2 atop the rotation. Muck like Milwaukee, they face losing a very talented offensive player at first.
The difference between the two however is that St. Louis has not totally gutted their farm system in the process. They have made some cost efficient moves that have made them competitive, but not desperate. By adding Lance Berkman, they have some protection for Matt Holliday and allow Colby Rasmus to hide in that threatening middle of the order. With the addition of a healthy David Freese, this team has plenty of offensive production to support what used to be a solid rotation. Now they lose Wainwright for 12-18 months assuming everything goes smoothely, and they face losing both Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols to free agency in the off season. I think it's all but assumed that Carpenter will be signing elsewhere in the winter, and the Pujols situation has gone from bad to ugly. If the two of those players leave, it puts the Cardinals in a weird position because their offense will be average, and their pitching will lack both depth and quality. Jaime Garcia was good last year, but until he shows he can stay healthy and do it consistently, he's not considered more than a number three starter or an average number two.
So here's an option that the Cardinals must, and most likely are considering: rebuild. This would mean trading Chris Carpenter and getting some value for him while he's still healthy and has a lot of potential return. If you do the deal now, you would get more in return because the team acquiring him would have a full season rather than less than half if it were at the trading deadline. If you move Matt Holliday also, you are freeing up a ton of money, and can start building around Colby Rasmus for the 2013 season when Wainwright returns from Tommy John. Let's face it, the Cardinals cannot make up for the (just over) 6 wins a game that Wainwright gives them according to WAR projections from FanGraphs. They have to do what's right for the organization and try to recoup some value while they still can.
Monday, January 24, 2011
The Wells, Rivera, Napoli deal and other notes
Alex Anthopoulos did what a lot of GM's and insiders didn't think was possible: Unload the massive Vernon Wells contract. Not only did he do so, he got two MLB-level talents in return. Toronto will save a ton of money in this deal, and it also allows them to balance their lineup better vs. tough lefties. Adam Lind has struggled against southpaws, and so has Travis Snider. This also buys them insurance in the case that JP Arencibia fails to live up to the hype over the course of a full big league season. Napoli has never been a great catcher, but he's serviceable and can play 1B and DH also. Rivera is nothing special, but he's serviceable and will benefit from being in a deeper lineup in Toronto.
As far as Wells, he will be an improvement over Rivera on both sides of the field. He had a resurgence in his numbers last year, but before that there were people talking about how he seems to throw away AB's and doesn't play his hardest all the time. Since that surfaced, Wells has shown an improvement and his power numbers returned. He will definitely benefit from being on a competitive team, and will fit nicely into the Anaheim lineup. However, with this all said, I do not feel that his overall value adds up to the cost associated. At his age, and the fact that he's already in the decline phase, Anaheim should have went and pushed harder to sign Carl Crawford. For a team that has been reported to be a little gun-shy for big contracts, this is a puzzling move and simply cannot come close to holding its value now and in the future. It's not even worth mentioning that Wells has an opt out clause after this season because there is no way he will ever see a contract like that ever again. Just when you give baseball ops people some credit for using their brains, they go and make moves like this that seem so blatantly one sided. It will be interesting to see what direction Toronto goes in, as Alex Anthopoulos has done a terrific job setting their club up from a talent and financial standpoint.
This comes a little late, but I am proud of Brian Cashman for coming forward and clearing his stance on the commitment to Rafael Soriano. I had actually discussed the fact that I thought he should do exactly that with a friend just two days before he stepped up and did so. It makes him look better, but in the end, a lot of GM's would give their first born son to have the advantages that come with being the Yankees GM.
As far as Wells, he will be an improvement over Rivera on both sides of the field. He had a resurgence in his numbers last year, but before that there were people talking about how he seems to throw away AB's and doesn't play his hardest all the time. Since that surfaced, Wells has shown an improvement and his power numbers returned. He will definitely benefit from being on a competitive team, and will fit nicely into the Anaheim lineup. However, with this all said, I do not feel that his overall value adds up to the cost associated. At his age, and the fact that he's already in the decline phase, Anaheim should have went and pushed harder to sign Carl Crawford. For a team that has been reported to be a little gun-shy for big contracts, this is a puzzling move and simply cannot come close to holding its value now and in the future. It's not even worth mentioning that Wells has an opt out clause after this season because there is no way he will ever see a contract like that ever again. Just when you give baseball ops people some credit for using their brains, they go and make moves like this that seem so blatantly one sided. It will be interesting to see what direction Toronto goes in, as Alex Anthopoulos has done a terrific job setting their club up from a talent and financial standpoint.
This comes a little late, but I am proud of Brian Cashman for coming forward and clearing his stance on the commitment to Rafael Soriano. I had actually discussed the fact that I thought he should do exactly that with a friend just two days before he stepped up and did so. It makes him look better, but in the end, a lot of GM's would give their first born son to have the advantages that come with being the Yankees GM.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Soriano gets 3yr/$35MM from Yankees
In a day where relievers, and pitchers in general are throwing harder than ever with an even lower lifespan, the Yankees went out and spent big dollars on Rafael Soriano early this morning. The deal is worth a reported 3 years at $35MM in total contract value (plus some incentives I am sure). Immediately there was a bit of harsh reaction over the deal, and understandably so. Relievers don't live up to the multiple year deals that they frequently get when teams become desperate and/or victims of the current market. The Yankees front office can blame Detroit for the commitment they had to make to land Soriano. And although there is no chance he lives up to the full value of the contract, he acquisition has some implications that have become more and more obvious to even casual fans. The loss of a first round pick in the deepest draft in ages is a sign that the Yankees have no regard for getting the player they want.
Although the deal is a bad one, it's not quite as bad as other writers have made it out to be. The easiest comparison I can make is Jonathan Papelbon. He is set to hit he open market next off season, and chances are that he will have a large check coming his way from some club. The Soriano deal will probably be the benchmark, but chances are his agent will push for more due to a healthy and successful track record. However, if you could pick between the two of them, who would you choose? I would pick Soriano. He has better stuff, he's shown he can transition from one league to another and have success in both. When he is healthy, he is flat-out dominant. Papelbon has shown a regression over the past two seasons in my opinino and scouting. His secondary stuff has never been above average, even below average. None of them lack depth or have particularly late movement. So in reality, if Soriano stays relatively healthy we may look back at the deal and think that the Yankees got a decent deal in the end. The easiest way of puting it is this: For the amount of dollars/years you are spending on depth guys and guys below the quality of Soriano, you must ask yourself (if you have the resources) how hard it is to get impact guys at the end of the bullpen. Soriano could easily close for NYY, and is probably an upgrade on 90% of closers presently in the position on other teams. Regardless of his title, he will provide solid innings and has shutdown stuff. The Yankees just told teams in the AL East that they have 7 innings to beat them.
Although the deal is a bad one, it's not quite as bad as other writers have made it out to be. The easiest comparison I can make is Jonathan Papelbon. He is set to hit he open market next off season, and chances are that he will have a large check coming his way from some club. The Soriano deal will probably be the benchmark, but chances are his agent will push for more due to a healthy and successful track record. However, if you could pick between the two of them, who would you choose? I would pick Soriano. He has better stuff, he's shown he can transition from one league to another and have success in both. When he is healthy, he is flat-out dominant. Papelbon has shown a regression over the past two seasons in my opinino and scouting. His secondary stuff has never been above average, even below average. None of them lack depth or have particularly late movement. So in reality, if Soriano stays relatively healthy we may look back at the deal and think that the Yankees got a decent deal in the end. The easiest way of puting it is this: For the amount of dollars/years you are spending on depth guys and guys below the quality of Soriano, you must ask yourself (if you have the resources) how hard it is to get impact guys at the end of the bullpen. Soriano could easily close for NYY, and is probably an upgrade on 90% of closers presently in the position on other teams. Regardless of his title, he will provide solid innings and has shutdown stuff. The Yankees just told teams in the AL East that they have 7 innings to beat them.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Pavano back to the Twins; CarGo gets big extension; Note on Joakim Soria
Just before the weekend it became official that Carl Pavano was re-joining the Twins, in what looks to be a very competitive divsion this year. All of the teams in the central have improved, while the Twins are hopeful that Justin Morneau can return to his all-star caliber coming off of a concussion that took a serious toll on him for the entire second half of the 2010 season. Without Morneau, the Twins all but have no chance in the central this year. There is no way an opposing manager would let Joe Mauer beat them when the game is on the line, and who could blame them?
For the second time in the same offseason, the Colorado Rockies made a huge extension (and leap of faith) to 5-tool player Carlos Gonzalez for 7years and $80MM. This now locks up CarGo through arbitration and a couple of years afterwards. I think it's a great deal that reminds me of the deal Tampa Bay made with Evan Longoria. Now everyone who looks at that deal thinks Longoria was crazy, but Tampa saw a chance to lock up a player that is key to the success of their ballclub and they did it. Same with Gonzalez, because if 2010 isn't a fluke, they have possibly the best all-around player in the game locked up for cheap for the next 7 years. Even if he performs below 2010 (which he likely will), he will still be a great player to have because he does so many things on the field and he absolutely LOVES to hit in Coors Field. If Colorado is right, they will look like geniuses. If they are wrong, they will look like JP Ricardi did when he gave Alex Rios the mega-deal that made him borderline un-moveable. But even Rios had things to offer when he wasn't hitting, and eventually turned that around too.
I found a quote today on Buster Olney's blog about the position the Royals are in with Joakim Soria:
"3. Bill Madden doesn't get the Royals' stance on refusing to trade Joakim Soria. I'd respectfully disagree: Soria's contract is so extraordinary for the team that the value of his deal makes it almost impossible for Kansas City to get equal value."
I completely disagree with Buster on many levels. First of all Soria is cheap, but to Kansas City, that money is better off investing in young position players who will set you up for years of production. Rarely do closers hold their value. Also, closers do not draw fans into the ballpark. I wouldn't pay $100 to watch a team of prospects never get a lead enough times to watch Soria pitch. The fact that his contract is so attainable is even more valuable due to the fact that many mid to low market teams could get involved and not have to move money to take him on, just talent. When they traded Greinke (a guy that draws fans) and now refuse to trade Soria (a guy who throws a couple innings a week) it's really sending mixed signals to the fans in KC. However, I doubt they are thinking along the same lines as everyone in the media. They are smart baseball minds, and realize all of these things also. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tampa Bay went out and got him with some of the pieces they picked up in the Matt Garza trade.
For the second time in the same offseason, the Colorado Rockies made a huge extension (and leap of faith) to 5-tool player Carlos Gonzalez for 7years and $80MM. This now locks up CarGo through arbitration and a couple of years afterwards. I think it's a great deal that reminds me of the deal Tampa Bay made with Evan Longoria. Now everyone who looks at that deal thinks Longoria was crazy, but Tampa saw a chance to lock up a player that is key to the success of their ballclub and they did it. Same with Gonzalez, because if 2010 isn't a fluke, they have possibly the best all-around player in the game locked up for cheap for the next 7 years. Even if he performs below 2010 (which he likely will), he will still be a great player to have because he does so many things on the field and he absolutely LOVES to hit in Coors Field. If Colorado is right, they will look like geniuses. If they are wrong, they will look like JP Ricardi did when he gave Alex Rios the mega-deal that made him borderline un-moveable. But even Rios had things to offer when he wasn't hitting, and eventually turned that around too.
I found a quote today on Buster Olney's blog about the position the Royals are in with Joakim Soria:
"3. Bill Madden doesn't get the Royals' stance on refusing to trade Joakim Soria. I'd respectfully disagree: Soria's contract is so extraordinary for the team that the value of his deal makes it almost impossible for Kansas City to get equal value."
I completely disagree with Buster on many levels. First of all Soria is cheap, but to Kansas City, that money is better off investing in young position players who will set you up for years of production. Rarely do closers hold their value. Also, closers do not draw fans into the ballpark. I wouldn't pay $100 to watch a team of prospects never get a lead enough times to watch Soria pitch. The fact that his contract is so attainable is even more valuable due to the fact that many mid to low market teams could get involved and not have to move money to take him on, just talent. When they traded Greinke (a guy that draws fans) and now refuse to trade Soria (a guy who throws a couple innings a week) it's really sending mixed signals to the fans in KC. However, I doubt they are thinking along the same lines as everyone in the media. They are smart baseball minds, and realize all of these things also. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tampa Bay went out and got him with some of the pieces they picked up in the Matt Garza trade.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Texas to acquire Beltre, DH Young
The baseball front offices must have been skeptical of Adrian Beltre, and rightly so. His career has been like many others to come down the baseball chain. One of great promise, incredible athletic ability, but an annoying inability to perform consistently. It is quite possible that playing in Safeco field had a great impact on his power numbers while playing in Seattle, and it's also possible that he was likely injured and played through it. But, one cannot bring up Adrian Beltre and think "yikes" when they look at his career track record compared to his contract years. The incredible thing that I always bring up when the subject of "contract year" comes up, is that it is mind boggling that these athletes are so talented that they can just simply turn it up a notch on their performance when a pay raise is in line. We see it time and time again, and you never hear about the guys who play hard every day and produce regardless of their contract.
Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Advanced stats will tell you, and your eyes will too. For a guy of his size, he seems to always have his body in the right place at the right time to make the play, and make it look effortless. His defensive metrics have never been in question to anybody. His play at the plate during his contract year with the Dodgers and the Red Sox were awe inspiring MVP-caliber. Last year in Boston, Beltre showed that he's not just a power hitter when he's on.. but he can also hit for a high average and get on base. When he hits the ball, he hits it really hard. One of the most talked about things is when he drops to his knees while hitting a moon shot over the green monster. The way he is able to do things like that and still generate solid contract and leave his bat in the zone for so long is impressive. He isn't your 3-hole hitter, but he is a great 4 or 5 hitting behind a lefty, ala Josh Hamilton. With the kind of skillset that Beltre has, you can't blame a team like Texas locking him down and making room for him on the roster. The deal is a big long for a player at his age, but chances are he will hold his value relatively deep into the contract assuming he stays healthy.
The one thing that bothers me about the deal is the position that Michael Young is currently in. I am of a strong opinion that using him at DH is not using him at peak value. Although he is no longer a plus defender, he is capable and can play many positions. I do not like the idea of using him as a super-utility, because again, this means that an every day player is sitting or DH'ing to make room. There is no doubt that Vlad is getting old and losing bat speed, but I would rather trade Young now to a team that needs a player who can impact their lineup and sign Vlad on the cheap. They would not be losing a draft pick, and what they get in return for Young could set them up to acquire a starter, which they desperately need. I'm not totally sold on Neftali Feliz transitioning into the rotation and being dominant. He has very high expectations (and rightly so), but it was out of the bullpen where hitters aren't going to see you more than once.
I have a hunch that Carl Pavano will be heading to the Yankees again. It makes too much sense, for both parties. I also hope that Joe Girardi opens his eyes and sticks Robinson Cano into the 3-hole, followed by A-Rod and then Teixeira. This is Robinson Cano's team now that Jeter and A-Rod are showing signs of age.
Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Advanced stats will tell you, and your eyes will too. For a guy of his size, he seems to always have his body in the right place at the right time to make the play, and make it look effortless. His defensive metrics have never been in question to anybody. His play at the plate during his contract year with the Dodgers and the Red Sox were awe inspiring MVP-caliber. Last year in Boston, Beltre showed that he's not just a power hitter when he's on.. but he can also hit for a high average and get on base. When he hits the ball, he hits it really hard. One of the most talked about things is when he drops to his knees while hitting a moon shot over the green monster. The way he is able to do things like that and still generate solid contract and leave his bat in the zone for so long is impressive. He isn't your 3-hole hitter, but he is a great 4 or 5 hitting behind a lefty, ala Josh Hamilton. With the kind of skillset that Beltre has, you can't blame a team like Texas locking him down and making room for him on the roster. The deal is a big long for a player at his age, but chances are he will hold his value relatively deep into the contract assuming he stays healthy.
The one thing that bothers me about the deal is the position that Michael Young is currently in. I am of a strong opinion that using him at DH is not using him at peak value. Although he is no longer a plus defender, he is capable and can play many positions. I do not like the idea of using him as a super-utility, because again, this means that an every day player is sitting or DH'ing to make room. There is no doubt that Vlad is getting old and losing bat speed, but I would rather trade Young now to a team that needs a player who can impact their lineup and sign Vlad on the cheap. They would not be losing a draft pick, and what they get in return for Young could set them up to acquire a starter, which they desperately need. I'm not totally sold on Neftali Feliz transitioning into the rotation and being dominant. He has very high expectations (and rightly so), but it was out of the bullpen where hitters aren't going to see you more than once.
I have a hunch that Carl Pavano will be heading to the Yankees again. It makes too much sense, for both parties. I also hope that Joe Girardi opens his eyes and sticks Robinson Cano into the 3-hole, followed by A-Rod and then Teixeira. This is Robinson Cano's team now that Jeter and A-Rod are showing signs of age.
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