Braun Tests Positive, Could Mean Big Changes in Milwaukee

It was just made public that NL MVP Ryan Braun has tested positive for performance enhancing drugs and will serve a 50-game suspension barring an appeal. This is extremely significant for Milwaukee going forward and all but surely takes them out of the bidding for Prince Fielder as Braun will miss 1/3 of the season in 2012. This news must come as a shock to the front office, and puts them in a very awkward position.

Both Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum are in the middle of working on contract extensions. The Milwaukee infield is abysmal with the exception of Rickie Weeks. The Brewers really relied on the Fielder/Braun combo for a large portion of their offensive production. If I were the GM over in Milwaukee I would use this opportunity to rebuild. Don't sign fielder, shop Greinke and Marcum and get some pieces that will help you for 2013-'14 because 2012 is essentially a loss without Braun in the lineup. I think the biggest mistake would be to continue the game plan and hope that they can pick back up in the second half of 2012. The offense isn't strong enough to hold everything together without Braun in such a strong division.

Arizona nabs Cahill and Breslow, send Jarrod Parker and others to Oakland

Billy Beane decided to essentially toss any hope for A's fans out the window yesterday when he dealt young ace in the making Trevor Cahill and effective RP Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks for SP prospect Jarrod Parker and two "prospects". This move is significant for the D'backs as their outlook on 2012 takes a sudden jump by adding a ground ball specialist with the best sinker in the game since former D'Backs ace, Brandon Webb.

By adding Cahill the D'backs add a ton of depth in a rotation that was questionable at the end. I think Cahill is the best pitcher on the D'backs right now, and will likely continue to get better if he can command his sinker a bit better going forward. I tweet'd yesterday that I have been wary of Cahill's health. While watching him in 2012 I noticed a slight difference in both his arm angle and the depth of his sinker. Although he regressed on a statistical end, which was expected, he also gave me warning signs on the eye test. If I'm wrong, which is quite possible, Arizona wins this trade in a vacuum. Reason I say that is because Parker will likely perform significantly better in Oakland than he would in Arizona. The ballpark factor cannot be denied here in Parker's side, much less in Cahill's due to his extreme ground ball splits. I would look to see Cahill back off of the slow breaking curve and use his power sinker a bit more, especially when pitching at home vs. teams with pop.

Parker is your typical scouts dream. He's got big velocity, a change with depth and a slider that was much better prior to Tommy John surgery which may return but if not he can use it as a show me pitch. I don't necessarily see how this trade really benefits anybody other than Arizona, as Cahill is likely to be better than Parker even if only by a small margin, and is cost efficient and we know what he's going to make until 2017. If Parker develops into an ace, Oakland will almost certainly need to move him and move him quickly because they're about the same age, only difference is that Cahill signed a team-friendly extension last season. The prospects given along with Parker aren't of impact, unless Ryan Cook magically learns how to command his breaking ball.

Arizona fans have a lot to be excited about if Cahill is healthy, but I am one of the few out there who isn't exactly sold on that fact. Time will tell.

Dipoto & Moreno bet Angels future on Pujols/Wilson

It was reported two days ago within the course of two hours that the LA Angels had signed both Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. By doing so, they simultaneously declared themselves favorites to win the AL West and pronounce them the "winners" of the 2011-'12 off-season. The buzz on Twitter the moment of the announced signing was intense and opinions varied immediately. Now that we've had time to sit and reflect on the signing, there seems to be a pretty general consensus from talent evaluators that although the Angels will be hurting in the final few years of this deal as Pujols surely will regress, the first 5-6 years of the deal will provide a much needed boost in offense that LA has lacked for several years now.

Arte Moreno passed on several big names (or was outbid) over the past couple of off-seasons. He passed on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in 2010, and last year passed up on Carl Crawford and his recently departed #1 starter in John Lackey. By doing so, he has landed the best hitter of my lifetime and arguably the best hitter of all time in Albert Pujols. At 10 years/$254MM, the Angels are betting that within the next 2-3 years they will be a major threat to win the World Series. By signing Wilson to a 6-year $77MM deal, they provided depth in their rotation that is a fearsome group. Not to mention, there are still rumors that they will look to deal defensive wiz Peter Bourjos in order to bolster their bullpen. This would allow Mike Trout to get a full season of solid defense and base-running for Mike Soscia with the potential that he advances with the bat and provides some pop.

With an excellent rotation, and a solid lineup the Angels look like they've leaped ahead of division rival Texas Rangers. Even if Texas goes out and signs Prince Fielder, I'm not sold on their rotation or their bullpen for that matter. Neftali Feliz, although talented, is an arm strength guy at this point in his career and will have some growing pains that will be tough to swallow when the club is built to win now. Texas is hoping that Feliz and Holland develop, and do so quickly otherwise they will not beat the Angels in a 5 or 7 game series.

Let me be clear here: I am not as excited about LA's lineup as others are. There are still holes and aging players  all through the lineup. Pujols will not be put in many situations to win games single-handedly as there is no real offensive threat behind him. Guys like Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and carry heavy salaries. The window is short, and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Jerry DiPoto to win and win NOW.

The Party Is In Miami

Looks like Will Smith had it right all along when he wrote the hit song some time ago “Welcome to Miami”. The Miami Marlins have made the biggest splashes of the offseason thus far by inking Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to long term deals. Reyes’ deal is a backloaded contract to ease the transition of payroll down in Miami and to allow more payroll flexibility this winter. There is no questioning Reyes’ talent, as he is one of the most productive threats in the game while on the field. That has been just it, keeping him on the field, as Reyes has been know to be a bit injury prone over the duration of his career. Most recently encountering hamstring issues that popped back up for a second time during the 2011 season.

All the drama lately has been surrounding not the Reyes signing, but the fact that Miami reportedly never consulted incumbent SS and uber-talented Hanley Ramirez about an inevitable defensive position change. It’s quite obvious that Reyes is both the current and future better defensive player, so a signing of Reyes was an automatic assumption that Ramirez was moving off of the position. There were reports last night that Ramirez was quoted by a friend that he did not want to move off the position, and may have requested a trade. By all counts this is a disaster if true. One thing is for sure: If Hanley requested a trade, the Marlins will have to make it happen. He hasn’t been exactly a model player from an effort standpoint already, never mind an unhappy player who doesn’t want to be there. Also, other GM’s will smell blood in the water and try to give as minimal as possible knowing Miami is in a tough spot since they’re trying to win NOW and will be forced to make the move rather than play out the market.

With the signing of Buehrle, the Marlins get a guy who’s going to give them some type of assurance. Josh Johnson has had health problems for the past two seasons in his shoulder, a bad spot for a pitcher to have issues. At this point, the elbow is something you see a high success rate of return following surgery. The shoulder is a completely different story, and from what I’ve read on shoulder injuries, they’re often a reflection of another injury in the elbow, and the shoulder gets injured trying to overcompensate. If Johnson comes back healthy and pitches 200-innings this year, Miami will be a lot deeper with guys like Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco pitching in the spots they should be, as 3 & 4’s rather than 2’s and 3’s. There’s also the chance that Miami goes and acquires CJ Wilson, which I would like to see. It just costs money, and Miami won’t have to dip into their talent pool to fill the spot. Even without another addition, Miami is in a much better position to succeed with Reyes and Buehrle assuming Hanley can get over himself and prove that his prime years are worth all of the hype.

Verlander wins AL MLP

Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander was named the 2011 American League MVP today and there has been much discussion surrounding the topic. Finishing in a close second was Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury who posted career highs in batting average, home runs and RBI's. A close third came Jose Bautista sporting his over 1k OPS while single-handedly keeping Toronto relevant north of the border.

Nobody is going to tell me that pitching wins did not have a part of the decision here. Zack Greinke had a season two years ago that was arguably more dominant than Verlander, and the discussion at the time was whether or not he could possibly win the Cy Young due to his low win-total. Last year you saw Felix Hernandez dominate hitters all season long, and again, the discussion was whether or not he should win the Cy (even though he inevitably did win). Now Verlander comes along and puts up very impressive numbers, but also 24 wins to boost his case and he wins the MVP after making 36 apperances.

The ironic part of this all is that it seems as though Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista took votes away from each other. There was a writer in Boston who basically said he voted for Verlander because "nobody stood out" to him. That is a ridiculous argument that makes me embarrassed to say he collects a paycheck to write his opinion. The award is given to the player who provides the most value. It seems as though there has been no real discussion of the standards of the award. But then again, some writers still vote based on pitching win totals, so I won't get too far ahead of myself.

With that said, here's my final ranking of who I would have voted for given a ballot:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Jose Bautista
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Justin Verlander
5. Miguel Cabrera

2011 World Series Wrapup, Look Ahead to Post-Pujols Cardinals

The 2011 World Series is over, but it's one I know I will certainly remember. The product on the field was excellent, with many games being close until the final innings and some going into extra's. No team had a particularly oustanding advantage on either side of the field. Although Texas' lineup is substantially better, we saw some players show their ability in St. Louis that may give fans some optimism when Albert Pujols inevitably ops for free agency.

David Freese and Allen Craig have shown a very advanced approach at the plate. They get on base, can hit for extra bases and work counts into their favor. At the beginning of 2011 it looked as though if Pujols leaves, the Cards are in a world of hurt. That doesn't seem to be the case anymore. Recently the Cards picked up Adam Wainwright's club option for 2012 and 2013 due to his progress in rehab. There was a rumor of a slim chance that Wainwright would possibly be available to pitch in the World Series, but I'm sure nobody believed that. It is a good sign that he is regaining his stuff.

Aside from the development of Freese and Craig, the Cards have two fireballers that are major league ready for 2012. It would come as no shock if Chris Carpenter regresses due to his age, but even if he is 85% the pitcher he is now, the Cardinals will have a fearsome pitching staff come second half of 2012 and beginning of 2013. Both Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez are aces in the making, with Miller ready to produce now. Martinez may need some additional development to start 2012, but the originally drafted Red Sox throws in the upper 90's, touching triple digits at times even into the later innings.

There is no discounting the major loss in production that losing the best hitter of all time will have on the Cards, but not all is lost. With some minor complimentary pieces added, they could be a force over the next 4-5 years. There is a press conference with Tony LaRussa scheduled and rumor is a possible retirement. If so, it's possible that Dave Duncan moves over to take the reigns. He has been reluctant to a management opportunity in the past, but a promotion in St. Louis would be completely different circumstances, ones which I believe Duncan would embrace.

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For true baseball fans, the 2011 World Series offers a breath of fresh air

I have to admit that this World Series offers a bit of optimism for those fans who realize the talent disparity between the American and National Leagues. If you were to take an overall view of the talent level, the American League has been significantly more "stacked" with talent for many years now. Sometimes you'll run across the occasional joke that the NL West is the new version of the 4-A ballplayer. However, we are starting to notice a bit of a swing as NL clubs are moving towards building their teams similar to AL teams. For some time the pitching and defense ONLY model was what you most often saw in NL clubs, especially those who have limited payroll flexibility.

Now there is less and less room for error in front offices, and clubs are finding value in players that they previously overlooked. Teams are finding an even more "true" value for all the analytical metrics out there. Stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) are a way for the less statistically inclined, but hardcore fan to take a look at a players overall value. The counting stats that almost everyone can relate to are taking a backseat to true value-based stats. This is the concept behind Money Ball, but it's just becoming common knowledge and lingo now.

St. Louis Cardinals are a great example of a mid-market team capitalizing on their peak skill level. They may (and probably will) lose arguably the best hitter of all-time in the off-season to free agency, but their team is deep, and there is a wave of talent coming up that will allow them to soften the blow of losing Pujols. Other mid-market teams are losing these types of players and taking years, if not decades to recover.

That's what makes this series so interesting. You have the Rangers powerful lineup full of sluggers, and big power arms. Then you have the Adam Wainwright-less St. Louis Cardinals with an AL-style lineup with depth and a bullpen that is performing well at the right time. That's really the key to playoff baseball, getting in a rhythm when it matters most. You can say that teams play 162 games all year to lose a small series and be out of contention and denote the importance of the playoffs, or you can take it for what it is and enjoy it. I choose to enjoy it, and relish at how incredibly close in talent these two teams are.

Enjoy this World Series and think about how the game has changed. Embrace it, because in a league with no salary cap, we're finally seeing the day we never thought we would see.