The trade deadline is fast approaching for the 2010 MLB season, and only one big deal has been made thus far. The Arizona Diamondbacks moved Dan Haren to the Anaheim Angels for a return of Joe Saunders, Pat Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and a player to be named later (Jason Grey of ESPN.com reports that the player will most likely be Tyler Skaggs).
When I originally heard the report of the trade it was stated as "Joe Saunders, two relief pitchers and a player to be named", so my first thoughts were that it would be one of Anaheim's power arms in the bullpen. I was far off on that assumption, and feel that Arizona did not ask for a return that your normally see in an elite pitcher. Haren has always been dominant, and last year he proved that yet again by having one of the lowest WHIP's in the NL. He is still relatively young, and relatively affordable. Although I am not an expert on the Anaheim minor's system, I am familiar with their top flight talent and projected impact players. I was surprised when I heard the names announced.
Upon further consideration, my hunch is that Arizona may be aware that Haren is injured in some way. Although he did pass his physical, he could have some type of injury that flies under the radar. There have been reports that Haren's stuff has been called "flat". It could be an injury, or he simply could be losing interest while playing for one of the worst teams in the NL. Either way, this trade is a no-brainer for Anaheim. Saunders is not an impact player, and he is not incredibly cheap either.
I have always been under the impression that when you move a top-flight talent (like Haren) that you get at least two projectable major league impact players in return, but this deal changes that. Word is that this trade sets the market low for other starters around the league, but I am not so sure about that. This may be just another questionable move by the Arizona front office.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
What to do in Tampa
In an era where scouting has become more and more of a science, rather than an art, there is becoming less and less of the overlooked finds that some teams stumble upon. The draft is becoming more and more "solved", and teams are addressing their needs more efficiently. The Tampa Bay Rays are showing that with a couple strings of high picks, any franchise can be turned around regardless of budget. Their starting rotation has been blowing opposing teams away since day one of the regular season, and they look to be the team everyone thought they would and more. James Shields continues to pitch above his expected level of success at the big league level. David Price is showing why he was the number one overall pick by becoming the AL's first 9-game winner. Jeff Niemann is 6-0 and posting up some incredibly impressive numbers. He is by far the biggest suprise in the rotation to those who follow by name only. Wade Davis has struggled lately, but still has great stuff and two put-away pitches. Matt Garza is commanding his filthy stuff, and making the Twins wish he was back in town with every start he makes. But there's more...
Jeremy Hellickson is sitting down in the Rays AAA affiliate and is making a name for himself. Any other team in baseball would have Hellickson in their rotation and he would probably be their number 2 or 3 starter. However, Tampa Bay's rotation is full, and aside from Wade Davis' recent struggles, it looks like there is no room for this phenom. I tend to do my own scouting on players, and use others reports as a supplement to my own observations, but the record on Hellickson is pretty strong from top to bottom.
Hellickson possesses a complete arsenal of pitches. His fastball sits at the low 90's, and it doesn't have particularly good movement, but he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He can also use a two-seam grip to induce groundballs, which is important, because Hellickson's real doozy is his changeup. His change has incredible depth to it, and he has great arm action, adding to the deception. It absolutely dominates left handers, and gets righties out with equal effectiveness. He will occasionally mix in a curve that has pretty good movement, but not as dominant as his counterpart in the big leagues, Wade Davis. Hellickson throws from a three quarters arm slot, and by watching video on him, you can see that with this arm slot he is able to make his excellent change move down and away from lefties and down and in on righties. I have also seen him take away some of the fade vs. righties and make it drop more downwards. Right now Hellickson is 8-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 12 starts in the minors, with an impressive K-BB ratio.
With impending free agents Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Rays are in an interesting position. They will ultimately let Crawford leave to free agency, as he is expected to command large dollars and the team owner has already stated that he is going to cut payroll after this year. Remember, they still have 8 million on the books for Pat Burrell. Desmond Jennings will almost surely fill the gap that Crawford will leave in the outfield. This will leave a big hole at 1B, a position that is hard to fill if you're a low payroll club competing in the AL East. As it looks right now, nobody in the starting rotation is slowing down. This might open the window for the Rays front office to move one of their starters. If they were to do that, they would surely be able to pry away a slugger that they will need to bat behind Evan Longoria. Could the Dodgers be calling and dangling James Loney? He will come relatively cheap, and he will fill at least the defensive ability that Pena has provided at first for the Rays. They could look to fill the offense internally with the infield/outfield logjam they have with Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings. If not the Dodgers, there are a host of teams that would come calling if the Rays put one of their young talented starters on the market.
Jeremy Hellickson is sitting down in the Rays AAA affiliate and is making a name for himself. Any other team in baseball would have Hellickson in their rotation and he would probably be their number 2 or 3 starter. However, Tampa Bay's rotation is full, and aside from Wade Davis' recent struggles, it looks like there is no room for this phenom. I tend to do my own scouting on players, and use others reports as a supplement to my own observations, but the record on Hellickson is pretty strong from top to bottom.
With impending free agents Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Rays are in an interesting position. They will ultimately let Crawford leave to free agency, as he is expected to command large dollars and the team owner has already stated that he is going to cut payroll after this year. Remember, they still have 8 million on the books for Pat Burrell. Desmond Jennings will almost surely fill the gap that Crawford will leave in the outfield. This will leave a big hole at 1B, a position that is hard to fill if you're a low payroll club competing in the AL East. As it looks right now, nobody in the starting rotation is slowing down. This might open the window for the Rays front office to move one of their starters. If they were to do that, they would surely be able to pry away a slugger that they will need to bat behind Evan Longoria. Could the Dodgers be calling and dangling James Loney? He will come relatively cheap, and he will fill at least the defensive ability that Pena has provided at first for the Rays. They could look to fill the offense internally with the infield/outfield logjam they have with Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings. If not the Dodgers, there are a host of teams that would come calling if the Rays put one of their young talented starters on the market.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Put up or shut up!
It's about 60 games through the regular season, and there have been some pretty exciting developments thus far. Every season there are always teams that start hot, cold and just don't do anything special. One amazing thing is just how close the teams are in basically every division, and I don't think that's just a coincidence. With the development of teams using statistical analysis, there seems to be a closer gap between the talent level and ability to fill gaps on the major league level. Instead of losing a big free agent and wondering what they will do, a lot of teams have a game plan set up with tiers of talent in the minors.
The big developments through the beginning of May:
1. Ryan Howard signs 5-year $125MM extension with the Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are one of the few clubs that openly admit/pronounce that they do not have a single person in their front office that uses statistical analysis to make their player personnel decisions. How they can go that route is beyond me, but that's their claim, regardless if it is true.That said, Ryan Howard is one of the elite talents in baseball. His power, regardless if it regresses a bit, will still provide plenty in the park that he plays 82 games a year in. His defense has improved and he is still working on it. He has also cut down his strikeouts, but he's strong enough to still provide the offensive production when he lets the ball get deeper in the zone. The interesting part is that he still had two years left in his original extension. This also essentially waves goodbye to Jason Werth, another guy who has made vast improvements and has a plus arm in right field. There is a possibility that Ruben Amaro JR. decided that he wants as much cost certainty going forward. The thing that puzzles me is that they fell in love with the player, and went out and did whatever they could to keep him. That is nice for Philly fans, but I cannot concieve Howard keeping his value through the length of the deal. He will be in his mid-30's when it is up, and we have seen the deterioration of heavy-set power hitters once they hit their early-to-mid 30's. He is the second best hitter on the team, so it will be interesting to see what direction Philly goes in from here.
2. The San Diego Padres are leading the division
You heard me, the Padres have finally gotten some production in the offense from somebody not named Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley has gotten off to a good start, and the pitching staff has been solid from top to bottom.The bullpen is one of the best in the game, so it's concievable that they could continue to win games with a small margin, but I can't see this lasting much longer. The interesting part of this all is not their record, but the position that GM Jed Hoyer is in. If he had a reconstruction plan built in the offseason, he will be facing major pressure from the owners and fans if he blows the team up now. He still has to do it, and the sooner the better. He may be able to trade Adrian Gonzalez and spin him for major league ready talent. That will set up the team for success, and put the fans at ease if they can see the immedate return on losing their star player.
3. The AL East
The Tampa Bay Rays have started out on fire and taken hold of the AL East. Their starting pitching looks incredible from top to bottom. Both David Price and Wade Davis have established themselves beyond their hype and provided the power pitching needed to succeed in the toughest division in baseball. Don't forget about the Yankees however. Robinson Cano is the AL MVP thus far. Joe Girardi slid him into the 5-hole behind both Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and he has been providing incredible production ever since. Phil Hughes looks like a burgeoning ace, who commands his pitches well and has a deep arsenal of pitches and looks he can provide to hitters. Even with Hughes developing, recent acquisition Javier Vazquez has been down right awful. His stuff is still there, but he just cannot get pitches by AL East hitters and has left a few hanging sliders up in the zone in all the worst times. He finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last year with the Braves and he still certainly has the stuff and potential to be successful, but he has to get himself together because he is the key to that rotation.
4. The Colorado Rockies look gooooooooooood...
They have such a great mix of talent on their team. Carlos Gonzalez has been incredible for them, continuing the success he had in the second half last year and adding another talented bat to their outfield mix. Ubaldo Jimenez has been out of this world and has an arsenal of stuff that is rivaled by nobody in baseball. Their bullpen is about to get a bit stronger with Huston Street returning from injury, and slotting their setup guys where they belong. Jhoulys Chacin made a start last week and looked incredible, stating why he is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. It will be interesting to see if he can be consistent and command his offspeed stuff, because that has been the only thing holding him back from being a complete pitcher and an ace.
I would touch on the Red Sox and their slow start, but there's nothing really to say. They have played how I predicted them to... nothing special. Their farm system is quite overrated, and it looks as though they will have to buy the players they will need to improve.
Enjoy the season, and next column will most likely be about Roy Halladay and his transition to the NL. Also, how the Cliff Lee swap sets both teams up for the future.
The big developments through the beginning of May:
1. Ryan Howard signs 5-year $125MM extension with the Philadelphia Phillies
2. The San Diego Padres are leading the division
You heard me, the Padres have finally gotten some production in the offense from somebody not named Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley has gotten off to a good start, and the pitching staff has been solid from top to bottom.The bullpen is one of the best in the game, so it's concievable that they could continue to win games with a small margin, but I can't see this lasting much longer. The interesting part of this all is not their record, but the position that GM Jed Hoyer is in. If he had a reconstruction plan built in the offseason, he will be facing major pressure from the owners and fans if he blows the team up now. He still has to do it, and the sooner the better. He may be able to trade Adrian Gonzalez and spin him for major league ready talent. That will set up the team for success, and put the fans at ease if they can see the immedate return on losing their star player.
3. The AL East
The Tampa Bay Rays have started out on fire and taken hold of the AL East. Their starting pitching looks incredible from top to bottom. Both David Price and Wade Davis have established themselves beyond their hype and provided the power pitching needed to succeed in the toughest division in baseball. Don't forget about the Yankees however. Robinson Cano is the AL MVP thus far. Joe Girardi slid him into the 5-hole behind both Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and he has been providing incredible production ever since. Phil Hughes looks like a burgeoning ace, who commands his pitches well and has a deep arsenal of pitches and looks he can provide to hitters. Even with Hughes developing, recent acquisition Javier Vazquez has been down right awful. His stuff is still there, but he just cannot get pitches by AL East hitters and has left a few hanging sliders up in the zone in all the worst times. He finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last year with the Braves and he still certainly has the stuff and potential to be successful, but he has to get himself together because he is the key to that rotation.
4. The Colorado Rockies look gooooooooooood...
I would touch on the Red Sox and their slow start, but there's nothing really to say. They have played how I predicted them to... nothing special. Their farm system is quite overrated, and it looks as though they will have to buy the players they will need to improve.
Enjoy the season, and next column will most likely be about Roy Halladay and his transition to the NL. Also, how the Cliff Lee swap sets both teams up for the future.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Right on the verge...
Here in New England we really appreciate it when the spring season creeps up on us. To those of you on the west coast, or in places that have generally warm climate all year, it's probably hard to imagine how we get excited at the thought of 50 degree weather. To me this signals more than grass growing, flowers pushing through the previously frozen earth, and ice cream stands prepping for another busy season. To me it signals only one thing: opening day.
Don't get me wrong, I love the hotstove and trade rumors as much, if not more, than the average baseball fan. In fact, the promise that the next season is coming around the corner is probably what gets me through all the miserable weather. However, there's nothing that compares to watching real games and seeing the talent put to good use.
So now comes the time for my first MLB Perspectives predictions!
A.L. West- There has been a lot of movement in this division this offseason. Seattle has made an aggressive push to make their mark in a division largely owned by the Angels over the past 5 years. I am not a believer, however, and a lot of the projections out there give me reason to believe that Seattle will finish behind Anaheim again this year. If they get out to a slow start, look to see both Cliff Lee and Jose Lopez on the trading block.
A.L. Central- I will keep this one short and simple. The Chicago White Sox are the class of this division. With a full year of Jake Peavy and another year of experience for John Danks and Gavin Floyd, this team is in position to dominate their division all year long.
A.L. East- Yankees win! Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees.. Winnn! Get the point yet? With the addition of Javier Vazquez, the Bronx Bombers have gotten stronger even with the exit of Johnny Damon. One thing to watch for is the health of Derek Jeter. If he were to go down that would be the biggest loss for the team aside from A-Rod going down again. I don't think the Red Sox are going to put up close to the numbers needed to win in this division, even with their improved defense and pitching.
N.L. West- It breaks my heart to see what is going on in Dodger nation. The divorce of the McCourt's couldn't have come at a worse time. They have budding stars on the cheap, and these kind of windows with this kind of talent don't come around often.. just ask the Florida Marlins. The addition of Edwin Jackson, a return of a healthy Brandon Webb and a more mature Stephen Drew spells a division championship for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Oh yeah, don't forget about Dan Haren. His year in 2009 was amazing, posting a flat 1.00 WHIP. He doesn't get the hype since his move to Arizona, but he is one of the games best and has plenty of experience to build on coming from the amazing staff back with the Oakland A's.
N.L. East- The Mets will be a strong team with the return of a healthy Carlos Beltran, but I think the Florida Marlins will squeeze out a tight race here. Josh Johnson is an elite ace, and the team is becoming more well-rounded offensively. Leo Nunez is going to earn his money this year. He will most likely be put in a lot of high-pressure scenario's.
N.L. Central- Not much to say here.. The St. Louis Cardinals are head and shoulders above everyone else in this division. Everybody has short memory though, because it seems everyone has forgotten about the sketchy health past of Chris Carpenter. Without him, they will struggle. With him, they easily walk away with the division. Felipe Lopez adds a lot of depth, and Albert Pujols is the best hitter (in my opinion) of all-time.
I will do a season-ending checkup to see how I did.
Stay tuned for the next entry, where I will go over my fantasy draft in my keeper league, and touch upon some of my impressions of a few impressive rookies already making a name for themselves.
Don't get me wrong, I love the hotstove and trade rumors as much, if not more, than the average baseball fan. In fact, the promise that the next season is coming around the corner is probably what gets me through all the miserable weather. However, there's nothing that compares to watching real games and seeing the talent put to good use.
So now comes the time for my first MLB Perspectives predictions!
A.L. West- There has been a lot of movement in this division this offseason. Seattle has made an aggressive push to make their mark in a division largely owned by the Angels over the past 5 years. I am not a believer, however, and a lot of the projections out there give me reason to believe that Seattle will finish behind Anaheim again this year. If they get out to a slow start, look to see both Cliff Lee and Jose Lopez on the trading block.
A.L. Central- I will keep this one short and simple. The Chicago White Sox are the class of this division. With a full year of Jake Peavy and another year of experience for John Danks and Gavin Floyd, this team is in position to dominate their division all year long.
A.L. East- Yankees win! Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees.. Winnn! Get the point yet? With the addition of Javier Vazquez, the Bronx Bombers have gotten stronger even with the exit of Johnny Damon. One thing to watch for is the health of Derek Jeter. If he were to go down that would be the biggest loss for the team aside from A-Rod going down again. I don't think the Red Sox are going to put up close to the numbers needed to win in this division, even with their improved defense and pitching.
N.L. West- It breaks my heart to see what is going on in Dodger nation. The divorce of the McCourt's couldn't have come at a worse time. They have budding stars on the cheap, and these kind of windows with this kind of talent don't come around often.. just ask the Florida Marlins. The addition of Edwin Jackson, a return of a healthy Brandon Webb and a more mature Stephen Drew spells a division championship for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Oh yeah, don't forget about Dan Haren. His year in 2009 was amazing, posting a flat 1.00 WHIP. He doesn't get the hype since his move to Arizona, but he is one of the games best and has plenty of experience to build on coming from the amazing staff back with the Oakland A's.
N.L. East- The Mets will be a strong team with the return of a healthy Carlos Beltran, but I think the Florida Marlins will squeeze out a tight race here. Josh Johnson is an elite ace, and the team is becoming more well-rounded offensively. Leo Nunez is going to earn his money this year. He will most likely be put in a lot of high-pressure scenario's.
N.L. Central- Not much to say here.. The St. Louis Cardinals are head and shoulders above everyone else in this division. Everybody has short memory though, because it seems everyone has forgotten about the sketchy health past of Chris Carpenter. Without him, they will struggle. With him, they easily walk away with the division. Felipe Lopez adds a lot of depth, and Albert Pujols is the best hitter (in my opinion) of all-time.
I will do a season-ending checkup to see how I did.
Stay tuned for the next entry, where I will go over my fantasy draft in my keeper league, and touch upon some of my impressions of a few impressive rookies already making a name for themselves.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Having a little fun with fantasy predictions!
On ESPN.com, the lead writers were all given the same questions about predictions for the 2010 MLB baseball season. I decided that I would give myself the same quiz and post my answers with an explanation. Enjoy!
Your fondest sports wish for 2010 is:
To see some resolution to the World Baseball Classic scheduling. I could go on and on about how much I support the idea of this tournament and how great it is for the game.
Why will this happen/not happen?
Baseball is a business and the owners have a lot invested in the players that take part in the tournament. Injury risk will always be the issue, but hopefully not the reason why it does or does not succeed.
Any sport, who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2010?
James Loney - He has the smoothe stroke and the body to be an impact player, we'll see if he figures it out.
Any sport, which player do you fear will let you down, but you feel compelled to keep drafting him anyway?
Alex Rios - He is the ultimate tease in my eyes and the eyes of a lot of scouts.
Which player has let you down one to many times and is now "dead to you?"
Jhonny Peralta
Who will be ...
... The second player taken in fantasy leagues? Hanley Ramirez.
... The first starting pitcher? Tim Lincecum
... The first closer? Jonathan Papelbon
... The second catcher? Victor Martinez
... The AL MVP? Joe Mauer
... The NL MVP? Albert Pujols - Durrr.. he's the best player in the game, and probably the best hitter of all time.
... The AL Cy Young? Zack Greinke.. he goes for the repeat! Last year was not a fluke!
... The NL Cy Young? Roy Halladay - And I don't think this one will be even close.
... The AL Rookie of the Year? Brett Wallace
... The NL Rookie of the Year? Stephen Strasburg
... The fantasy baseball MVP (most value for draft position)? Nick Johnson
... The highest-rated player on Player Rater? Albert Pujols
The Name Game ...
Which player would you rather draft in 2010?
Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez? A-Rod
Tim Lincecum or Zack Greinke? Lincecum, but it's not Greinke's fault he's on the worst team in baseball.
Roy Halladay or Chris Carpenter? Halladay
Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp? Braun
Yovani Gallardo or Josh Johnson? Johnson.. I think he falls just short of Halladay in the Cy voting this year.
Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard? Howard, he's making some really impressive adjustments at the plate.
Adam Lind or Josh Hamilton? Lind, it's not a question of talent, because if so Hamilton would win by a mile.
Aaron Hill or Ben Zobrist? Hill
Evan Longoria or Mark Teixeira? Teixeira... Longoria's supporting cast is the difference.
Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Broxton? Rivera.
Playing with Numbers:
Predict the 2010 stat.
Roy Halladay wins:21
Cliff Lee wins: 18
Mark Reynolds home runs and batting average: 34, .268.
Joe Mauer's batting average and home runs: .335, 27.
Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki's stolen bases: 27, 30.
Matt Capps saves: 12
Javier Vazquez wins, ERA and WHIP: 17, 4.07, 1.27
Stephen Strasburg's wins, ERA and WHIP: 6, 4.58, 1.18
Grady Sizemore's HR/SB: 18/20
Alfonso Soriano's average draft position:65
Your fondest sports wish for 2010 is:
To see some resolution to the World Baseball Classic scheduling. I could go on and on about how much I support the idea of this tournament and how great it is for the game.
Why will this happen/not happen?
Baseball is a business and the owners have a lot invested in the players that take part in the tournament. Injury risk will always be the issue, but hopefully not the reason why it does or does not succeed.
Any sport, who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2010?
James Loney - He has the smoothe stroke and the body to be an impact player, we'll see if he figures it out.
Any sport, which player do you fear will let you down, but you feel compelled to keep drafting him anyway?
Alex Rios - He is the ultimate tease in my eyes and the eyes of a lot of scouts.
Which player has let you down one to many times and is now "dead to you?"
Jhonny Peralta
Who will be ...
... The second player taken in fantasy leagues? Hanley Ramirez.
... The first starting pitcher? Tim Lincecum
... The first closer? Jonathan Papelbon
... The second catcher? Victor Martinez
... The AL MVP? Joe Mauer
... The NL MVP? Albert Pujols - Durrr.. he's the best player in the game, and probably the best hitter of all time.
... The AL Cy Young? Zack Greinke.. he goes for the repeat! Last year was not a fluke!
... The NL Cy Young? Roy Halladay - And I don't think this one will be even close.
... The AL Rookie of the Year? Brett Wallace
... The NL Rookie of the Year? Stephen Strasburg
... The fantasy baseball MVP (most value for draft position)? Nick Johnson
... The highest-rated player on Player Rater? Albert Pujols
The Name Game ...
Which player would you rather draft in 2010?
Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez? A-Rod
Tim Lincecum or Zack Greinke? Lincecum, but it's not Greinke's fault he's on the worst team in baseball.
Roy Halladay or Chris Carpenter? Halladay
Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp? Braun
Yovani Gallardo or Josh Johnson? Johnson.. I think he falls just short of Halladay in the Cy voting this year.
Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard? Howard, he's making some really impressive adjustments at the plate.
Adam Lind or Josh Hamilton? Lind, it's not a question of talent, because if so Hamilton would win by a mile.
Aaron Hill or Ben Zobrist? Hill
Evan Longoria or Mark Teixeira? Teixeira... Longoria's supporting cast is the difference.
Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Broxton? Rivera.
Playing with Numbers:
Predict the 2010 stat.
Roy Halladay wins:21
Cliff Lee wins: 18
Mark Reynolds home runs and batting average: 34, .268.
Joe Mauer's batting average and home runs: .335, 27.
Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki's stolen bases: 27, 30.
Matt Capps saves: 12
Javier Vazquez wins, ERA and WHIP: 17, 4.07, 1.27
Stephen Strasburg's wins, ERA and WHIP: 6, 4.58, 1.18
Grady Sizemore's HR/SB: 18/20
Alfonso Soriano's average draft position:65
Monday, December 28, 2009
Jays and Mariners Swap Young Fireballers
I think I would be in the majority with how surprised I was to see Toronto and Seattle making this type of trade. I am not surprised on Toronto's end, but more so Seattle, because in all reality they are going "all-in" this year by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and a second-tier prospect.
Seattle is getting a guy that has the stuff and the makeup to be a great setup guy or a closer if he really puts his talent to use. Last year was his first full year in the big leagues, and although his ERA wasn't all that impressive (4.58), he has shown me that with a few adjustments he can improve. He has a plus fastball that is consistently in the mid 90's and sometimes touches 97-98 MPH. He has developed a change-up to tackle left handed hitters and last time I saw him pitch it seemed to have good depth and deception. I have seen him show a slider to right hander's to keep them off of his fastball, but I think that in time the change-up will be his go-to second pitch even against right handed batters.
The second guy involved in the trade is a strong tools outfielder who has a lot of raw ability but has yet to show an ability to put it together and struggles with plate discipline. League will fit in well with Seattle and I think he will eventually take over the closers role, especially knowing how inconsistent that incumbent closer David Aardsma can be.
What is being said around baseball is that this trade seems pretty lopsided. In my opinion it doesn't make baseball sense from a GM's point of view to trade a potential top of the rotation guy for a setup guy. Granted they are both young and League is more proven than Morrow, but Morrow has shown that he can deliver one plus pitch for an entire game. If the Jays handle him right and develop what's missing from his arsenal, this will be a steal and we will all look at Seattle and say "why did they do that?"
With these kind of trades there is always a lot of speculation because you're dealing with relatively young and not very well established major leaguers. If you put aside the future results, looking at this deal from an X's and O's standpoint makes me really question Seattle's willingness to give up a guy that could be an impact starter for many years to come.
On to other stuff:
The Yankees surprised everyone and went out and got another ace in Javier Vazquez. I think this was a brilliant move by the Yankees. They are basically creating a team that on paper looks unbeatable. Vazquez is unquestionably durable and is a two-way pitcher, in that he can get ground balls but also racks up high strikeout counts. I know that Atlanta needed to shed payroll, but unless they see Melky Cabrera developing into a more all-around hitter I think they lose in this deal.
The second guy involved in the trade is a strong tools outfielder who has a lot of raw ability but has yet to show an ability to put it together and struggles with plate discipline. League will fit in well with Seattle and I think he will eventually take over the closers role, especially knowing how inconsistent that incumbent closer David Aardsma can be.
With these kind of trades there is always a lot of speculation because you're dealing with relatively young and not very well established major leaguers. If you put aside the future results, looking at this deal from an X's and O's standpoint makes me really question Seattle's willingness to give up a guy that could be an impact starter for many years to come.
On to other stuff:
Friday, December 11, 2009
Winter Meetings Wrap-up
Indianapolis… really? I don’t know who came up with the bright idea to do some type of PR stunt and make it look like the executives and highly paid officials of MLB teams live some type of normal life and hold the meetings in Indianapolis. You would be hard pressed to find a place with worse weather conditions on this time of year. Here’s a hint: if the professional football team of that city plays at an indoor stadium, you probably could pick a better place to hold a convention in the middle of the winter. I attempted to feel bad for some of the writers complaining about it also, but then I realized that they’re living the dream reporting on baseball every day and traveling across the country and whatever feelings I had quickly dissipated.
I chose to write about the meetings at the end because of two reasons. The first being that it was expected that the meetings would be relatively slow this year, and that was true. Secondly, a lot of the moves that teams make sometimes lead to reactionary moves which changes the entire landscape of their decision making.
The perfect opening for the Atlanta Braves. They went ahead and offered both of their premier relievers, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano arbitration. They are both Type A free agents, but I clearly expected a lot of interest in those guys because they are impact arms and teams can’t ever get enough of those. There has been no movement from the Mike Gonzalez camp, but I think the likelihood of a team offering him big dollars and giving up a pick is higher than Soriano just because he is a lefty with good stuff, rather than a righty with good stuff.
Soriano, however, accepted arbitration after the Braves had already made plans that both guys would sign contracts elsewhere. By signing both Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner to one year deals, the Braves couldn’t afford to take on the $8MM that Soriano would be paid through his arbitration hearing. So what did they do? They spun him off to Tampa Bay, and received Jesse Chavez, who was the player in the Akinori Iwamura trade.
This is really a brilliant trade for both sides. Atlanta gets a quality arm at a cheap cost, and Tampa Bay gets their closer at the cost of a guy who didn’t fit into their lineup. Now this bumps everybody in the Tampa bullpen down a notch, and puts them in the places they belong. Dan Wheeler is not a closer, but Soriano has the stuff to be a very successful closer for Tampa and I look for him to nail down 30-35 saves if he stays healthy. Atlanta now gets a guy with a quality arm in Chavez, and takes $8MM off their books.
Oh and by the way, don’t forget that Tampa Bay doesn’t give up a first round pick for Soriano, that right there is a small detail flying under the radar. Now if they can only get rid of that disgusting contract of Pat Burrell they will be in great shape. Willy Aybar should be the DH this year, and should have been last year. If the Rays are smart, they should look into trading Carl Crawford sooner than later. It will be close to impossible for them to resign Crawford, and I doubt he will want to come back after so many horrible years in Tampa. The value they could get in return for Crawford would be enormous. These are the types of movies that small market teams have to make in order to stay competitive. Look what the Tigers just got for Curtis Granderson! Granderson isn’t the complete player that Crawford is, even if Crawford is a couple of years older than him.
Scott Boras reminds me of this: If you always lie over and over, eventually you will start to believe your own lies. Well, everybody seems to be calling him crazy at his overrating and high contract demands of Rick Ankiel and Adrian Beltre. But one thing that simply amazes me, is he always finds somebody to sip on some of that crazy juice and spend big dollars on his guys. Why should he try and level with the GM’s and play into their hands? Hey, it’s easy to call the guy crazy but I constantly marvel at how the guy does it year in and year out. He is worth every dollar from a player perspective.
I’m not going to go on and on about the mega deal between Arizona, Detroit and New York Yankees because there is a ton of stuff written about it all over the place. I do think that everyone harping on Arizona GM Josh Byrnes for making this deal are missing the point. Max Scherzer is NOT Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a front of the rotation starter who is still relatively young and not overly expensive. Ian Kennedy was awful in the AL East, and for reason. He doesn’t have great stuff and he won’t light up the radar screen, but in the NL West he will be a serviceable No. 5 starter who comes very very cheap.
Scherzer is a Scott Boras guy, and is coming up to that point in his career where he’ll start to command some big dollars himself. Arizona is going for the throat this year because of the Dodgers situation, and I love the aggressive approach. Yes, Scherzer has great stuff but he hasn’t shown the ability to command it and put it together yet. Jackson was one of the best starters in the AL in the first half this year not named Zack Greinke. Detroit gets guys who have flashy names, but in all reality the ONLY player who has the ability to be an impact guy is Edwin Jackson. Curtis Granderson is a nice guy who hits righties well, but he can’t hit left hander’s and the league will punish him for that in key spots. If I’m a manager in the NL West, the thought of going into a playoff series against Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and Brandon Webb I am very scared. Check back with me at the end of the 2010 season and put this one in the books: I think Arizona got the best deal.
One more small note. The situation in Dodger camp is really sad. They are so close to being a great team, and the divorce is totally destroying it. Not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is the same as writing on the front page of the LA Times that fans shouldn’t waste their time showing up this season. If Chad Billingsley can start to command his stuff a little better and lower his pitch counts he is a legitimate ace. Between Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw their rotation only needed a few minor tweaks to win that division. Their window is short. Soon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and others will be up for arbitration and they won’t come cheap.
Another thing about the situation in LA. Manny Ramirez has his legacy in his hands this coming season. He is set to make $20MM, and had a pretty forgettable season last year in the midst of the PED scandal and the fact that he simply didn’t produce and his bat looked awfully slow.
I chose to write about the meetings at the end because of two reasons. The first being that it was expected that the meetings would be relatively slow this year, and that was true. Secondly, a lot of the moves that teams make sometimes lead to reactionary moves which changes the entire landscape of their decision making.
The perfect opening for the Atlanta Braves. They went ahead and offered both of their premier relievers, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano arbitration. They are both Type A free agents, but I clearly expected a lot of interest in those guys because they are impact arms and teams can’t ever get enough of those. There has been no movement from the Mike Gonzalez camp, but I think the likelihood of a team offering him big dollars and giving up a pick is higher than Soriano just because he is a lefty with good stuff, rather than a righty with good stuff.
Soriano, however, accepted arbitration after the Braves had already made plans that both guys would sign contracts elsewhere. By signing both Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner to one year deals, the Braves couldn’t afford to take on the $8MM that Soriano would be paid through his arbitration hearing. So what did they do? They spun him off to Tampa Bay, and received Jesse Chavez, who was the player in the Akinori Iwamura trade.
This is really a brilliant trade for both sides. Atlanta gets a quality arm at a cheap cost, and Tampa Bay gets their closer at the cost of a guy who didn’t fit into their lineup. Now this bumps everybody in the Tampa bullpen down a notch, and puts them in the places they belong. Dan Wheeler is not a closer, but Soriano has the stuff to be a very successful closer for Tampa and I look for him to nail down 30-35 saves if he stays healthy. Atlanta now gets a guy with a quality arm in Chavez, and takes $8MM off their books.
Oh and by the way, don’t forget that Tampa Bay doesn’t give up a first round pick for Soriano, that right there is a small detail flying under the radar. Now if they can only get rid of that disgusting contract of Pat Burrell they will be in great shape. Willy Aybar should be the DH this year, and should have been last year. If the Rays are smart, they should look into trading Carl Crawford sooner than later. It will be close to impossible for them to resign Crawford, and I doubt he will want to come back after so many horrible years in Tampa. The value they could get in return for Crawford would be enormous. These are the types of movies that small market teams have to make in order to stay competitive. Look what the Tigers just got for Curtis Granderson! Granderson isn’t the complete player that Crawford is, even if Crawford is a couple of years older than him.
Scott Boras reminds me of this: If you always lie over and over, eventually you will start to believe your own lies. Well, everybody seems to be calling him crazy at his overrating and high contract demands of Rick Ankiel and Adrian Beltre. But one thing that simply amazes me, is he always finds somebody to sip on some of that crazy juice and spend big dollars on his guys. Why should he try and level with the GM’s and play into their hands? Hey, it’s easy to call the guy crazy but I constantly marvel at how the guy does it year in and year out. He is worth every dollar from a player perspective.
I’m not going to go on and on about the mega deal between Arizona, Detroit and New York Yankees because there is a ton of stuff written about it all over the place. I do think that everyone harping on Arizona GM Josh Byrnes for making this deal are missing the point. Max Scherzer is NOT Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a front of the rotation starter who is still relatively young and not overly expensive. Ian Kennedy was awful in the AL East, and for reason. He doesn’t have great stuff and he won’t light up the radar screen, but in the NL West he will be a serviceable No. 5 starter who comes very very cheap.
Scherzer is a Scott Boras guy, and is coming up to that point in his career where he’ll start to command some big dollars himself. Arizona is going for the throat this year because of the Dodgers situation, and I love the aggressive approach. Yes, Scherzer has great stuff but he hasn’t shown the ability to command it and put it together yet. Jackson was one of the best starters in the AL in the first half this year not named Zack Greinke. Detroit gets guys who have flashy names, but in all reality the ONLY player who has the ability to be an impact guy is Edwin Jackson. Curtis Granderson is a nice guy who hits righties well, but he can’t hit left hander’s and the league will punish him for that in key spots. If I’m a manager in the NL West, the thought of going into a playoff series against Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and Brandon Webb I am very scared. Check back with me at the end of the 2010 season and put this one in the books: I think Arizona got the best deal.
One more small note. The situation in Dodger camp is really sad. They are so close to being a great team, and the divorce is totally destroying it. Not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is the same as writing on the front page of the LA Times that fans shouldn’t waste their time showing up this season. If Chad Billingsley can start to command his stuff a little better and lower his pitch counts he is a legitimate ace. Between Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw their rotation only needed a few minor tweaks to win that division. Their window is short. Soon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and others will be up for arbitration and they won’t come cheap.
Another thing about the situation in LA. Manny Ramirez has his legacy in his hands this coming season. He is set to make $20MM, and had a pretty forgettable season last year in the midst of the PED scandal and the fact that he simply didn’t produce and his bat looked awfully slow.
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