The Tampa Bay Rays are in an interesting position

The Tampa Bay Rays are an incredibly savvy and sound organization from front to back. With Joe Maddon on the front lines managing his team to get whatever edge he can on the competition, to Andrew Friedman in the front office squeezing out any type of value he can find across the nation (and the world). It's all very impressive work, and given their fiscal situation, you would be hard pressed to find a business model that has survived on such limited resources but has produced for such an extended time period. With that said, I have come to some conclusions based on scouting their performances across their 25-man roster, and what they have available in the minors that can help them out this year, if they were to require such assistance.

The rotation is very solid. With David Price flashing plus stuff every night out, he truely anchors a staff that is about as balanced as you will find. Aside from Price, Jeremy Hellickson has stepped in as the #2 starter (at least in terms of performance periferals). I am a very big fan of Hellickson's stuff and makeup. The whole package looks and feels to be a guy that will be able to compete in the challenging AL East for many years to come. Following Price and Hellickson in the rotation are a recently resurgent James Shields, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann. None of them really play out to bottom of the rotation type of guys, there's more likely a bunch of 3's and 4's who can play a bit "up" from that when they're puting all the pieces together.

Normally one would be excited, and there's plenty of reason to be if you're staring at their rotation on a nightly basis. Price is down right dominating when he's on, Hellickson pitches like a trained assassin, Shields is very good when he locates the 4-seamer to go with his devastating change, Davis is a pure power guy who can look dominating and then lost and Niemann has an all-around arsenal and hits his spots well. After the Matt Garza trade, they only really have one guy left in their rotation who is going to make a significant amount of money, being Shields. In 2011 he is set to make $4.25MM. That is the last guaranteed year of his 4-year $11.25MM deal signed in August of 2000. The team is still under control of Shields for years 2012-14 with team options. He is set to make $7MM in 2012, otherwise the team can buy out for $2MM, or of course they could trade him while he is pitching well and is still cost-effective for some teams who may be looking to upgrade at starting pitching. He's only 29 years old, so there's plenty left in the tank and other teams may feel that they could possibly sign him to a new deal if they acquired him via trade. He is set to make $12MM in 2014 at age 32 but could conceivably benefit from a trade to any other division than the AL East.

The front office of the Rays are in a position to trade Shields now, and it would make all the sense in the world. He has been basically a replacement level pitcher (in terms of WAR stats over the past 4 seasons) through his career. Granted, he will likely boost his value by moving to a different division. I have been harping for a while now that the Dodgers could possibly come along with James Loney as an option, but Loney's performance has declined over the past years when it should be increasing, so a potential fit is most likely no longer there. Time will tell, and I suspect the trade will happen at the All-Star break or it won't happen at all especially with Shields pitching well.

Josh Beckett's Performance on Sunday vs. Yankees

     Last night was like watching a highlight reel from 1999 when Josh Beckett was firing strikes and mowing down opposing hitters in a Marlins uniform. Rarely did any pitch hang, or stay straight. Hitters were either out on their front foot, or taking emergency hacks.. sometimes looking as though they would fall flat on their face when he broke off his 12-6 curveball. It was a clinic put on by a guy that in the past two years hasn't shown any life to his pitches and basically looked like he was at a career crossroads.

      These are the types of things that drive scouts crazy, because it cannot be explained from any baseball metric, and to be honest there weren't a whole lot of people out there that would have predicted this outcome. In fact Beckett's stuff was so good, it actually looked improved upon compared to when he originally signed with the Red Sox. His straight change, although lacking in velocity differential, seems to have a significant amount more depth and deception than in the past. It acts almost as a really hard (less movement) splitter. His new cutter was not his biggest weakness, in fact it made hitters look silly and at times had plus movement acting almost like a slider. The curve, which had diminished in both depth and location was on the black and buckling knees the entire night. The fastball was Cliff Lee-esque and barely ever left the paint leaving hitters only capable to foul it off in the hopes that they find a ball to hit on the next pitch. The only thing was that the next pitch was on the black also and getting by hitters, or it was an offspeed pitch that made them look silly.

     I made a somewhat sarcastic comment to a friend watching the game with me "watch, he'll be on the DL by the end of this week" because I really cannot understand how this drastic of a change in EVERY pitch can happen overnight. The team he faced has an excellent blend of hitters who are very smart and don't give anything away. Beckett made them look like they were the San Diego Padres last night, and if this is a sign of CONSISTENT things to come, the Red Sox just jumped back into favorites to win the division and the World Series.

      With all of this said however, I hate to be a downer and give my honest opinion that this will not last. In fact, I would hesitate to suggest it will last into next start. This is the type of puzzling thing that happens when a player enters a contract year and miraculously hits .300 and 30HR after a career stat line of .265 with 10 HR. Just how these athletes are able to dial up natural ability is something I don't think I will ever be able to understand. Only time will tell if this is a sign that things have turned around for Beckett. Around Boston there is a lot being talked about the difference in his performance when Jason Varitek catches vs. any other backstop. Granted, he may be somewhat more effective with a more knowledgeable counterpart behind the plate, but Varitek isn't giving Beckett a new shoulder or elbow, he's just puting fingers down and puting a glove somewhere.

In the end, this is why we watch the games and follow through the long 162 game grind that is the baseball season. This is what makes it interesting.

Opening Day and Phillies lineup without Chase Utley

   Opening day is fast approaching, as the teams buses have left their spring training facilities and are heading to their home parks to get ready for the season opener. As a player, you have high hopes for what you can achieve both as a team and as an individual. This is the time of year where players sit back and try to imagine where there careers are headed, and what they can do to establish themselves as one of the games best. No matter your age or standing in the league, your main focus right now is to either stay healthy or if you're already injured, get healthy.

The Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies debate as to whom is the best team in baseball took a turn in the Red Sox favor as this week we have learned that Chase Utley's knee is not looking very promising. At this point the report is that he and the team are doing everything they can in order to avoid surgery. If his injury does not start to look better and the discomfort does not go away, the Phils may be without their All-Star second basemen for quite a while. This would put trmendous pressure on Ryan Howard to carry the load that will be left by some combination of Wilson Valdez and newly acquired Luis Castillo. Neither guy can really offer much from an offensive standpoint, especially Castillo who was let go by the Mets while they still owe him $9MM for the 2011 season. I am very interested in seeing what lineup they will go with, but I will provide my own opinion on what I would do:
1. SS Rollins - S
2. LF Ibanez - L
3. 3B Polanco - R
4. 1B Howard - L
5. CF Victorino - S
6. RF Francisco - R
7. C Ruiz -R
8. 2B (Valdez/Castillo) - S
9. Pitcher

This lineup gives the top 3 guys with the higher OBP a chance to get on base in front of Howard. It also avoids the late-inning matchup problems that they had with lefties Utley, Howard, Ibanez all bunched up. At this point Jimmy Rollins hasn't shown power for a couple of years, so use what speed he has left in his legs and hope for a bounce back season. If you think it should look different, comment and let me know what you think, and why!

What could have been...

I saw an article online that Buster Olney of ESPN had provided about a once bright shining star in the Toronto Blue Jays system named Dustin McGowan. Most of you probably aren't familiar with the name, but if you were a Toronto fan about 5 years ago, I can guarantee that you would recognize it.

The story can be found here: http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2011/03/13/17599806.html

As far as pitching prospects go, McGowan was it. He is tall, athletic and very competitive. Oh and I almost forgot, he had some of the best stuff I have seen in a long long while. His fastball was in the mid to upper 90's with good movement and improving location. He had a changeup that fell off the table and had a significant gap of MPH between his fastball. But his best pitch was his curve, which ranks in the 75 range on the 20-80 scale and that may be generous. It played better than most because of the velocity and arm angle. I suggest you go and look up some video of him pitching to get an idea of just how talented this kid was. I can remember the day that McGowan, AJ Burnett and Roy Halladay were on the same staff and a lot of teams must have been wondering how they had a chance to win when they were facing the 3 guys with arguably the best arms in the AL East.

It's guys like McGowan that you see come more often than the Pedro Martinez's of the world that deft all logic. Even McGowan had a big frame and the body type that you would project as staying relatively healthy. Some people are just not meant to be, and it's a shame because I would have loved to see him healthy and flashing his plus stuff every 5 days.

If you can't beat 'em.. join 'em - What I would do if I were the Cardinals GM

     About 48 hours ago the St. Louis Cardinals got some bad news. They learned that Adam Wainwright, their 20 game winner and runner up to Roy Halladay in the Cy Young voting, had significant pain in this throwing elbow. Not good. Fast foward to 24 hours ago, and Wainwright and the medical staff deemed that he go under season ending reconstructive surgery. This is about as bad as it gets for a team that looked like it was going for it this year and had a legitimate shot to possibly win a World Series.

     48 hours has gone by, and in that time I did some thinking as to what I would do if I were in charge of the baseball operations over in St. Louis. One thing that I can be certain of is that they are at the very definition of a cross roads. The situation they are in right now reminds me of where Milwaukee was when they traded for CC Sabathia and went for it all while they had a healthy (at the time) Ben Sheets and could contend for a title with a deadly 1 and 2 atop the rotation. Muck like Milwaukee, they face losing a very talented offensive player at first.

     The difference between the two however is that St. Louis has not totally gutted their farm system in the process. They have made some cost efficient moves that have made them competitive, but not desperate. By adding Lance Berkman, they have some protection for Matt Holliday and allow Colby Rasmus to hide in that threatening middle of the order. With the addition of a healthy David Freese, this team has plenty of offensive production to support what used to be a solid rotation. Now they lose Wainwright for 12-18 months assuming everything goes smoothely, and they face losing both Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols to free agency in the off season. I think it's all but assumed that Carpenter will be signing elsewhere in the winter, and the Pujols situation has gone from bad to ugly. If the two of those players leave, it puts the Cardinals in a weird position because their offense will be average, and their pitching will lack both depth and quality. Jaime Garcia was good last year, but until he shows he can stay healthy and do it consistently, he's not considered more than a number three starter or an average number two.

     So here's an option that the Cardinals must, and most likely are considering: rebuild. This would mean trading Chris Carpenter and getting some value for him while he's still healthy and has a lot of potential return. If you do the deal now, you would get more in return because the team acquiring him would have a full season rather than less than half if it were at the trading deadline. If you move Matt Holliday also, you are freeing up a ton of money, and can start building around Colby Rasmus for the 2013 season when Wainwright returns from Tommy John. Let's face it, the Cardinals cannot make up for the (just over) 6 wins a game that Wainwright gives them according to WAR projections from FanGraphs. They have to do what's right for the organization and try to recoup some value while they still can.

The Wells, Rivera, Napoli deal and other notes

Alex Anthopoulos did what a lot of GM's and insiders didn't think was possible: Unload the massive Vernon Wells contract. Not only did he do so, he got two MLB-level talents in return. Toronto will save a ton of money in this deal, and it also allows them to balance their lineup better vs. tough lefties. Adam Lind has struggled against southpaws, and so has Travis Snider. This also buys them insurance in the case that JP Arencibia fails to live up to the hype over the course of a full big league season. Napoli has never been a great catcher, but he's serviceable and can play 1B and DH also. Rivera is nothing special, but he's serviceable and will benefit from being in a deeper lineup in Toronto.

As far as Wells, he will be an improvement over Rivera on both sides of the field. He had a resurgence in his numbers last year, but before that there were people talking about how he seems to throw away AB's and doesn't play his hardest all the time. Since that surfaced, Wells has shown an improvement and his power numbers returned. He will definitely benefit from being on a competitive team, and will fit nicely into the Anaheim lineup. However, with this all said, I do not feel that his overall value adds up to the cost associated. At his age, and the fact that he's already in the decline phase, Anaheim should have went and pushed harder to sign Carl Crawford. For a team that has been reported to be a little gun-shy for big contracts, this is a puzzling move and simply cannot come close to holding its value now and in the future. It's not even worth mentioning that Wells has an opt out clause after this season because there is no way he will ever see a contract like that ever again. Just when you give baseball ops people some credit for using their brains, they go and make moves like this that seem so blatantly one sided. It will be interesting to see what direction Toronto goes in, as Alex Anthopoulos has done a terrific job setting their club up from a talent and financial standpoint.


This comes a little late, but I am proud of Brian Cashman for coming forward and clearing his stance on the commitment to Rafael Soriano. I had actually discussed the fact that I thought he should do exactly that with a friend just two days before he stepped up and did so. It makes him look better, but in the end, a lot of GM's would give their first born son to have the advantages that come with being the Yankees GM.

Soriano gets 3yr/$35MM from Yankees

     In a day where relievers, and pitchers in general are throwing harder than ever with an even lower lifespan, the Yankees went out and spent big dollars on Rafael Soriano early this morning. The deal is worth a reported 3 years at $35MM in total contract value (plus some incentives I am sure). Immediately there was a bit of harsh reaction over the deal, and understandably so. Relievers don't live up to the multiple year deals that they frequently get when teams become desperate and/or victims of the current market. The Yankees front office can blame Detroit for the commitment they had to make to land Soriano. And although there is no chance he lives up to the full value of the contract, he acquisition has some implications that have become more and more obvious to even casual fans. The loss of a first round pick in the deepest draft in ages is a sign that the Yankees have no regard for getting the player they want.

     Although the deal is a bad one, it's not quite as bad as other writers have made it out to be. The easiest comparison I can make is Jonathan Papelbon. He is set to hit he open market next off season, and chances are that he will have a large check coming his way from some club. The Soriano deal will probably be the benchmark, but chances are his agent will push for more due to a healthy and successful track record. However, if you could pick between the two of them, who would you choose? I would pick Soriano. He has better stuff, he's shown he can transition from one league to another and have success in both. When he is healthy, he is flat-out dominant. Papelbon has shown a regression over the past two seasons in my opinino and scouting. His secondary stuff has never been above average, even below average. None of them lack depth or have particularly late movement. So in reality, if Soriano stays relatively healthy we may look back at the deal and think that the Yankees got a decent deal in the end. The easiest way of puting it is this: For the amount of dollars/years you are spending on depth guys and guys below the quality of Soriano, you must ask yourself (if you have the resources) how hard it is to get impact guys at the end of the bullpen. Soriano could easily close for NYY, and is probably an upgrade on 90% of closers presently in the position on other teams. Regardless of his title, he will provide solid innings and has shutdown stuff. The Yankees just told teams in the AL East that they have 7 innings to beat them.