Friday, December 4, 2009

Scutaro Signing Defines Angst of Small Market Teams

          The Boston Red Sox signed veteran SS Marco Scutaro to a 2-year deal with a mutual option for the third year. It is reported that the deal will have both 2010, and 2011 at $5M, with a $1M signing bonus. Boston plugs their gaping hole at the SS position (again), and can check off one of their major needs during the offseason. In the meantime Toronto, who offered Scutaro arbitration a couple of weeks ago, gains a first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Both teams are happy with this result because Toronto just signed Alex Gonzalez and just before that signed John McDonald to an extension, essentially locking up the available infield positions.

          Scutaro hasn't had the typical path to success in his career. He played mostly as a backup and only recently shined enough to warrant a starting position and he succeeded. What he did at his position is the part that most don't realize, because the SS position is lacking in offensive production across baseball. I have always been a little suspicious when guys all of a sudden put up dramatically better numbers the year before they reach free agency. Sure, some may be just pure chance, but in all reality the players are aware of what is at stake. Don't get me wrong, I think Scutaro will be a solid player for the Red Sox. He does everything solidly, nothing great, which would be a welcomed attribute in Boston. The part that really bugs me is that the Red Sox gave up a first round pick to get a guy on the verge of decline. I don't like the trade for the Red Sox going forward, all we can do now is wait and see what the numbers say.

           The worst part of the deal for the Red Sox is the loss of the first-round pick. Yes, the Red Sox got -- or stole, if you're a bitter Met fan -- a first-round pick for Billy Wagner, but that pick was theirs whether or not they signed Scutaro or another Type-A free agent.

          The loser here appears to be Jed Lowrie, whose wrist injury wiped out a 2009 season in which he was expected to contend for the starting shortstop job. Given the long recovery time from serious wrist problems -- such players often need a full year after the injury has healed to regain all their strength in that joint -- it does make sense for Boston to avoid relying on Lowrie for anything in 2010, but I wonder if this means he's become trade bait for a big arm or bat.

From Keith Law's Blog on ESPN.com 



          Jed Lowrie now takes a back seat on his road to recover from a wrist injury. This will not help his development, but will give him time to bounce back with less pressure. If Scutaro somehow is a total bust and Lowrie is recovering well, he can slide in and Scutaro can take a utility position off of the bench. Now is Scutaro succeeds, Lowrie's value is essentially lost to the Red Sox and he will in all likeliehood be moved to another team. Lowrie is a solid player and projects to be an average to good major leaguer. He is a switch hitter who plays solid defensively and can play multiple positions.

          The amazing part about this signing is that most people in the media are raving about how good this deal is for the sox, I am on the other side of the boat. Sure, Scutaro is good and fits into the Money Ball equation perfectly. Desperation moves sometimes work for clubs, and sometimes they come back to haunt them. The first round pick that the Red Sox lost in this deal is extremely valueable. It narrows the gap of time that Jed Lowrie can prove his worth, and you also lose about $16 million dollars (at least) in the process of paying Scutaro. 

          What does this say to the small to mid-market teams out there? There are teams willing to give up a first round pick and multi-year deals to aging middle infielders. It must be nice to be Theo Epstein, because to most teams losing the pick would be a disaster, not to mention all of the money and lack of production the SS position has provided over the past decade. But when you consider the bigger picture of the signing, it becomes clear that some GM's almost have to be a magician to make a small to mid-market team become a success.

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