Friday, December 10, 2010

What the Crawford signing means to the AL East

            The balance of power in the AL East seemed to swing late Wednesday night, as the Red Sox and Carl Crawford made an announcement that they had agreed to a 7-year/$142MM contract pending a physical. From what I understand, Crawford's decision was based upon the players attitudes towards the game. The tough nosed, gritty style of play that the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek and others. That is an uncommon thing to come from a player regarding why he chose a certain place to play, and a good one for Red Sox fans. There are intangibles that go with certain guys, and they can be infectious. Not only does Crawford bring his rare and unique skill set to a team that had been getting progressively older and slower, he brings an attitude that will make everyone around him better.

             From seeing Crawford over the years, I can tell you that he is a special player. The amazing part is that even though most others in New England have seen him and how he plays the game, they were still sort of enamoured over Jayson Werth because of his power/RBI potential. Most used the argument that none of his stats (aside from the obvious steals) jump out at you, and how could he possibly be worth $20MM/season? If you were to look deeper however, there is really no comparison between the two. There are aspects to total production that put miles between the two of them. For those who do not really understand the difference, an easy way is to look at a typical fantasy league and use a player comparison to see the intricacies. Amazingly, Crawford had 5 more RBI (90) than Werth (85). Werth was higher in slugging, walks, doubles and HR's with 46 less AB's. Seems like I don't know what I'm talking about, right? Not so fast.

           Werth was the crucial right handed compliment to the Phillies lineup. He saw an incredibly better amount of RBI situations and better pitches to hit. He hit in a ballpark that is made for him, and is an injury risk. He also has only had two years of real evidence that he can put up these kind of numbers. Numbers which did not start to surface until he was mixed in the Philly lineup, and in that ballpark. Crawford has hit in many different spots in the lineup, and used in different ways than Werth. His consistent production is something you can contribute to his hard work ethic. Now he will no longer be the man along with Evan Longoria, he will be mixed into an all-star lineup that will be relentless against RHP. He will likely see an incredible amount of better pitches to hit due to the mix of players hitting behind him, no matter where he hits in the lineup. He has less holes in his swing, and is more likely to hold his value through the end of this deal than Werth.
            One thing to watch now that the Red Sox lineup got even more left handed is the value of Brian Fuentes and Scott Downs. It is almost a certainty that they will be given a bigger deal than they had anticipated with the Yankees now in more need of their services. Word is that Damaso Marte will not be healthy enough to start the season, and even he is climbing in age. Both Downs and Fuentes have shown that they can get righties out, but if I had to choose between the two I would go with Downs. He has a variety of off-speed stuff that I think would play better in Yankee stadium in terms of giving up the long ball. They are both very effective against left-handed batters and one of them is almost certain to sign with NYY.

           The Cliff Lee saga continues, as both the Rangers and Yankees dig a hole deeper than they would like. It's really sad, because at 7-years, one of these teams are going to likely regret overextending themselves. However, I have written previously that I feel that Lee will age well. He has always been able to locate and aside from the mistake to Edgar Renteria, he rarely makes mistakes that hurt him. His WHIP over the past 4 seasons is astounding. The most exciting thing to consider is what all this means to Albert Pujols. The best hitter in the game must be watching this very closely. As Bobby Cox was quoted as saying "if Ryan Howard gets $25MM/year, then Pujols should get $50MM/year because he is twice as good as anybody out there".

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