Lackey Reported Injury Is No Surprise

Yesterday Peter Gammons or ESPN reported that starting pitcher John Lackey had a tear in his pitching elbow that may require Tommy John surgery at some point this season. That would make it the second starter in Boston's rotation that has gone down to the injury in two months. Interestingly enough, both pitchers were struggling mightily, and in Lackey's case, still struggling despite still being on the active roster.

Lackey called the report "a lie" and went on to talk about how everyone in the staff has some type of "tear" in their arms. Not necessarily owning up to it, but also not firmly denying that the injury existed. A closer look at his stuff this season would lead one to believe that the account is actually correct and that Lackey is most likely hurt. This is not a numbers thing, and as much as it is painful to go by the eye test, sometimes it's good to use this to try and spot trends in the numbers and reasons why. If a pitcher is pitching poorly and not locating, that's one thing. However if a guy is just hurt and there's nothing he can do to correct the performance without getting it corrected or going on the shelf, that's something certainly worth noting.

A casual fan most likely will not notice these type of changes in mechanics, stuff and slight velocity dips. We've seen guys get by on dwindling stuff in the past, but it's more likely that the pitcher will suffer bad results because they have learned to pitch a certain style, and when that is no longer working they either adjust or fail and retire or get sent to the minors. In Lackey's case, his contract is vastly too large, even if undeserving, to be cut or sent to another club unless they somehow find Arte Moreno and get lucky with a Vernon Wells-esque type of move. Lackey has always relied on the success of his breaking pitches to pitch effectively. Another pitcher similar to Lackey is Oakland starting pitcher Brett Anderson. Although Anderson's stuff is a tick better, their pitching styles are quite similar and Anderson is on the verge of having TJ himself.

Lackey never had quite Zack Greinke 2009 stuff, but there's a clear regression in the quality of his breaking pitches. Without a fastball to get past hitters, I do not see the results changing much from here on out if he stays on the field. The best bet would be to go under the knife, take next season out of the equation, and get the sharpness of his pitches back. If he chooses to be stubborn and try to pitch through it, he may likely be one of the biggest busts in terms of performance vs. dollars paid in MLB history.