What This Season Means to Pujols Future

Is it me, or has some of the shine worn off of Albert Pujols? The slow start aside, he seems to be genuinely aggravated by the entire free agency process. Every interview he is asked the questions over and over again, and it seems to be wearing on him a bit. I remember spring training and the big questions were all about Pujols and what the Cardinals will do if he leaves. Then Wainwright went down, and the notion was that the Cards would just float through this year and try to rebuild when Pujols leaves. Maybe they would make a run, but the general opinion was that they didn't have a team good enough to win it all. And in all reality, that couldn't be anymore true as you watch their season. It seems to lack that one big piece to put them over the top. Not to mention Chris Carpenter is most likely leaving at the end of the year, and there is a strong possibility that Cardinals fans have seen the last of Adam Wainwright because his deal ends shortly as well.

Through 488 PA's, Pujols is posting a 3.8 batting WAR (Baseball Reference), the lowest of his career. Granted he's still got ~200AB's left before the end of the season, and he has heated up quite a bit over the past month and a half. However that is a great margin to make up, even for a player of Pujols caliber. A lot of conversation has been swirling that it's possible that the team who acquires Pujols in the inevitable mega-deal this off season may make a potentially crippling decision. Is he in decline? Is this the beginning of the end for the best player I have ever watched with my own two eyes? Even though some out there would argue that may be the case, it's highly unlikely.

Now that the same sizes have started to make sense, you can see some evidence that this is either A. fluky or B. he's hurt/distracted or maybe both. This year Puols' BABIP is .259, that's 37 points lower than his career .311 mark. His walk rate is 8.8% compared to a career 13.2% career mark. So some of the regression is due to the fact that he's getting unlucky when he makes contact and that is further illustrated when you look at his K-rate.. it's 9.0% with a career mark of 9.5%. So he's doing all the right stuff, but variance is not on his side for the time being.

Maybe for one team out there they'll get a discount if some scouts and front offices have soured on Pujols. That team may get a steal, because it's my opinion that he will return to his old self and perform at a high level for another 2-4 years. After he starts to regress with age, it won't be elite performance, but he will still be very valuable and put together quality AB's.