Lackey Reported Injury Is No Surprise

Yesterday Peter Gammons or ESPN reported that starting pitcher John Lackey had a tear in his pitching elbow that may require Tommy John surgery at some point this season. That would make it the second starter in Boston's rotation that has gone down to the injury in two months. Interestingly enough, both pitchers were struggling mightily, and in Lackey's case, still struggling despite still being on the active roster.

Lackey called the report "a lie" and went on to talk about how everyone in the staff has some type of "tear" in their arms. Not necessarily owning up to it, but also not firmly denying that the injury existed. A closer look at his stuff this season would lead one to believe that the account is actually correct and that Lackey is most likely hurt. This is not a numbers thing, and as much as it is painful to go by the eye test, sometimes it's good to use this to try and spot trends in the numbers and reasons why. If a pitcher is pitching poorly and not locating, that's one thing. However if a guy is just hurt and there's nothing he can do to correct the performance without getting it corrected or going on the shelf, that's something certainly worth noting.

A casual fan most likely will not notice these type of changes in mechanics, stuff and slight velocity dips. We've seen guys get by on dwindling stuff in the past, but it's more likely that the pitcher will suffer bad results because they have learned to pitch a certain style, and when that is no longer working they either adjust or fail and retire or get sent to the minors. In Lackey's case, his contract is vastly too large, even if undeserving, to be cut or sent to another club unless they somehow find Arte Moreno and get lucky with a Vernon Wells-esque type of move. Lackey has always relied on the success of his breaking pitches to pitch effectively. Another pitcher similar to Lackey is Oakland starting pitcher Brett Anderson. Although Anderson's stuff is a tick better, their pitching styles are quite similar and Anderson is on the verge of having TJ himself.

Lackey never had quite Zack Greinke 2009 stuff, but there's a clear regression in the quality of his breaking pitches. Without a fastball to get past hitters, I do not see the results changing much from here on out if he stays on the field. The best bet would be to go under the knife, take next season out of the equation, and get the sharpness of his pitches back. If he chooses to be stubborn and try to pitch through it, he may likely be one of the biggest busts in terms of performance vs. dollars paid in MLB history.

Dodgers File for Bankruptcy

     In a less than shocking move, Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy this morning to give him a chance to keep ownership control of the Dodgers. If McCourt had not filed, there was reportedly "almost no chance" he would make the payroll at the end of June, and therefor would have completely lost control of the franchise due to MLB ownership regulations. This window provided by the filing will give McCourt $150MM in assets to meet his obligations while they hammer out the lawsuit against MLB for not allowing his mega TV deal with Fox to go through.

    McCourt has been making the case that MLB is not allowing him to run his business and save his assets by blocking the TV deal that was set in place under the divorce agreement with Jamie McCourt, and really.. who can blame MLB for not allowing the deal to take place? He has done nothing but deceive the fans of the Dodgers, and put his own personal well-being ahead of the organizational health. Although that is far from uncommon in business, it's a venture that receives a massive amount of attention from media and MLB is putting an end to it right now. It's a wake up call that will surely be noted for many years when a new owner inquires about an MLB franchise.

     The disappointing part is that about 4 years ago I made the prediction that the Dodgers would either win a World Series, or at least be in serious contention right about now. They had the talent in the minors, the payroll to support the gaps in talent, and the fan base to drive a continued run of success. That has fallen by the wayside, and it doesn't appear it's going to get any better either. If you paid attention to this years stocked draft, the Dodgers are not taking advantage of whatsoever due to not being able to go an inch over slot.

I think the general consensus from the fans point of view, and possibly even the league is that they want this to just go away just as they did the steroid era. There are many issues in baseball right now, but this is at the top of the list by far. Hopefully they can just get someone in there as soon as possible, otherwise we may go ahead and forget about the Dodgers as a successful franchise until 2020.

Interleague Play Is Awesome!

I hope all of you baseball fans have been watching the interleague play over the past week or two. There has been much discussion across many different formats, and writers about interleague play and even more opinions (as usual). One thing you see being brought up a lot is the disparity between the two leagues. It is essentially a known fact at this point that the NL is the worst, and it's really not all that close, especially considering sample sizes over the past couple of decades. Of course, you're at a significant disadvantage by not having (or needing) a DH-type of quality hitter on your bench. If you had such a hitter, you would find a spot in your lineup and on the field for him, a la Lance Berkman. Interestingly enough, I don't feel that the star players in the NL are any worse than the stars in the AL, it's more of a disparity between the lower tier guys and the replacement level players in each league. That is where the true difference shines through in interleague play. But enough on that..

I absolutely love interleague play. I am constantly surrounded by Red Sox fans who are not fans of baseball, more fans of the Red Sox brand and culture associated with "their town/city". It's rather unfortunate, because I think that a lot of people would really come to enjoy the game a bit more if they watched what happened on the field and truly enjoyed the game for what it is. That is the essence of interleague play. So many more factors and possibilities come into play while two differently constructed organizations take the field. To make a comparison from my professional poker background, it's like playing at a table full of talented professional players and then switching to a table with a couple of wild players and seeing how the dynamic changes.. sort of.

What I am really saying is that interleague is for people who love baseball. If you're just a fan of one team, and the success associated with that team, what is your motivation to watch interleague games since you will not see them in the playoffs unless you and the opposing team make the World Series? It's actually part of why the trading deadline in baseball is so exciting for baseball fans. Those of you who did not realize just how good Adrian Gonzalez is before he dawned a Red Sox uniform (aside from what you have heard from media) probably had no clue how good he really is. To me, the ability to scout a player that maybe I have missed or haven't had a chance to see just yet is awesome because I rely on my personal opinions quite a bit when analyzing certain players. It keeps me intrigued, it keeps things fresh, it's what baseball is!

So I ask the readers.. what is your opinion on interleague play? Post here or on the MLB-Persspectives Facebook page and let me know what you think. You can also read my opinions and analysis on Twitter: @MLBPerspectives

Thanks for reading!

Look ahead to Monday's First Year Player Draft

     Around this time every year is where hardcore fans of teams that are performing poorly start to get excited, it's the MLB first year player draft. 2011 has been deemed the Tampa Bay Rays draft, because Tampa has a significant amount of picks this year (12 out of the top 70 or so). Of course, you only amass those type of picks from losing really good players like Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano, but sometimes you also get high picks from guys that don't necessarily match up but you'll take them anyway (Carlos Pena, Chad Qualls, Randy Choate). There is a ton of coverage all over the web from some incredible scouts and writers so I won't go too deeply into advanced scouting reports, but I'd like to share some thoughts on the way this draft could change some organizations.

     Gerrit Cole, the RHP from UCLA is looking like the consensus top talent in this years draft. He's got 4 above average pitches, with 3 of them being "plus" and his fastball is BIG and sits between 94-97 all game. Recently he was clocked at 101 in the 8th inning of his latest outing, almost cementing the top pick this year.. you would think. If it were anybody but the Pirates, I would all but be sure of them taking Cole without batting an eyelash, but they have been reported to be in on all 3 of the top talents and knowing their reluctance to take guys who will command big price tags its possible they shock us once again, a la Matt Wieters.

The thing about the MLB draft is that it's always worked in a sort of "tier'ing" system due in large part that picks are usually not a sure thing unless there's guys that are no-doubters, but those are really rare in baseball considering the failure rate between the day after the draft and the day (if) the player reaches the big leagues and fills his projection or something close to it. Aside from the multitude of picks that the Rays have, worth watching will be the Diamondbacks and the Royals. Diamondbacks with the two high picks, and on the verge of contention and young talent with a subpar rotation and a reputation of going for polished guys. The Royals are interesting because of the recent news that John Lamb is undergoing Tommy John and will likely not a factor until 2013, and Mike Montgomory pitching worse and worse it seems. There are a lot of high expectations for K.C., and they have an interesting decision to make here.

The New York Mets could have a makeover plan coming soon

The MLB draft is Monday June 6th, and many teams are drooling at the talent available this year. Many experts have been quoted as saying that this is the deepest draft in some years, offering a multitude of talent filled with raw, toolsy high school players and impact-ready college talent. As the scouting and baseball landscape is changing before our eyes, you're starting to see teams a lot more efficient with their decisions to draft players, and seeing those results within a couple of years instead of 10 years down the line. Which got me to thinking about the Mets and how the draft coming up on Monday could be the first step to a drastic turnaround for the organization.

With the level of money due to come off the books for the 2012 season, and with news breaking today that the organization will sell a minority stake of $200MM to an investment group, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic if you're a Mets fan. GM Sandy Alderson is one of the best in the game, and will also benefit from the new cash flow, as it will likely take some of the pressure off of him when deciding about which players to acquire in the draft. The Mets have always been big spenders both in free agency, and in the international scene. Once highly touted prospect Fernando Martinez never really panned out, as well as some other notably high dollar international signings. In all reality, you'll be able to tell what the Mets are planning by who they draft. If they take college level players that are closer to helping now, chances are they'll hang onto David Wright and build around him. If they go young, chances are you'll see them unload the players worth getting value for and shoot for a rebuild.

The biggest question that I have, is that if the Mets go into a full rebuilding mode how will that help the financial situation? For a team that has said they expect to lose upwards of $70MM this year, wouldn't drafting and signing talent that's able to help immediately make more sense to avoid a potential disaster? If so, Alderson has really no choice, because the ownership group signs his check as well as giving the final okay to signing players they acquire. A team trying to acquire Reyes will likely have to overpay, and given the most recent trends of the trading deadline, a deal as big as the Mets would need to let Reyes go will probably not happen. A deal for Wright would equally take a package as big, likely bigger because he is under control for a couple more years and that would offer the acquiring team financial certainty. Beltran is the guy that will go almost surely if the team paying gives them talent better than that they think they can acquire with the draft picks in the 2012 draft.

It just seems all too likely that the Mets will in fact NOT go into a rebuilding phase, and more likely that they try to improve their club for the immediate future. Only time will tell what their plans are, and if I were a Mets fan I would be watching intently this Monday.

The Tampa Bay Rays are in an interesting position

The Tampa Bay Rays are an incredibly savvy and sound organization from front to back. With Joe Maddon on the front lines managing his team to get whatever edge he can on the competition, to Andrew Friedman in the front office squeezing out any type of value he can find across the nation (and the world). It's all very impressive work, and given their fiscal situation, you would be hard pressed to find a business model that has survived on such limited resources but has produced for such an extended time period. With that said, I have come to some conclusions based on scouting their performances across their 25-man roster, and what they have available in the minors that can help them out this year, if they were to require such assistance.

The rotation is very solid. With David Price flashing plus stuff every night out, he truely anchors a staff that is about as balanced as you will find. Aside from Price, Jeremy Hellickson has stepped in as the #2 starter (at least in terms of performance periferals). I am a very big fan of Hellickson's stuff and makeup. The whole package looks and feels to be a guy that will be able to compete in the challenging AL East for many years to come. Following Price and Hellickson in the rotation are a recently resurgent James Shields, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann. None of them really play out to bottom of the rotation type of guys, there's more likely a bunch of 3's and 4's who can play a bit "up" from that when they're puting all the pieces together.

Normally one would be excited, and there's plenty of reason to be if you're staring at their rotation on a nightly basis. Price is down right dominating when he's on, Hellickson pitches like a trained assassin, Shields is very good when he locates the 4-seamer to go with his devastating change, Davis is a pure power guy who can look dominating and then lost and Niemann has an all-around arsenal and hits his spots well. After the Matt Garza trade, they only really have one guy left in their rotation who is going to make a significant amount of money, being Shields. In 2011 he is set to make $4.25MM. That is the last guaranteed year of his 4-year $11.25MM deal signed in August of 2000. The team is still under control of Shields for years 2012-14 with team options. He is set to make $7MM in 2012, otherwise the team can buy out for $2MM, or of course they could trade him while he is pitching well and is still cost-effective for some teams who may be looking to upgrade at starting pitching. He's only 29 years old, so there's plenty left in the tank and other teams may feel that they could possibly sign him to a new deal if they acquired him via trade. He is set to make $12MM in 2014 at age 32 but could conceivably benefit from a trade to any other division than the AL East.

The front office of the Rays are in a position to trade Shields now, and it would make all the sense in the world. He has been basically a replacement level pitcher (in terms of WAR stats over the past 4 seasons) through his career. Granted, he will likely boost his value by moving to a different division. I have been harping for a while now that the Dodgers could possibly come along with James Loney as an option, but Loney's performance has declined over the past years when it should be increasing, so a potential fit is most likely no longer there. Time will tell, and I suspect the trade will happen at the All-Star break or it won't happen at all especially with Shields pitching well.

Josh Beckett's Performance on Sunday vs. Yankees

     Last night was like watching a highlight reel from 1999 when Josh Beckett was firing strikes and mowing down opposing hitters in a Marlins uniform. Rarely did any pitch hang, or stay straight. Hitters were either out on their front foot, or taking emergency hacks.. sometimes looking as though they would fall flat on their face when he broke off his 12-6 curveball. It was a clinic put on by a guy that in the past two years hasn't shown any life to his pitches and basically looked like he was at a career crossroads.

      These are the types of things that drive scouts crazy, because it cannot be explained from any baseball metric, and to be honest there weren't a whole lot of people out there that would have predicted this outcome. In fact Beckett's stuff was so good, it actually looked improved upon compared to when he originally signed with the Red Sox. His straight change, although lacking in velocity differential, seems to have a significant amount more depth and deception than in the past. It acts almost as a really hard (less movement) splitter. His new cutter was not his biggest weakness, in fact it made hitters look silly and at times had plus movement acting almost like a slider. The curve, which had diminished in both depth and location was on the black and buckling knees the entire night. The fastball was Cliff Lee-esque and barely ever left the paint leaving hitters only capable to foul it off in the hopes that they find a ball to hit on the next pitch. The only thing was that the next pitch was on the black also and getting by hitters, or it was an offspeed pitch that made them look silly.

     I made a somewhat sarcastic comment to a friend watching the game with me "watch, he'll be on the DL by the end of this week" because I really cannot understand how this drastic of a change in EVERY pitch can happen overnight. The team he faced has an excellent blend of hitters who are very smart and don't give anything away. Beckett made them look like they were the San Diego Padres last night, and if this is a sign of CONSISTENT things to come, the Red Sox just jumped back into favorites to win the division and the World Series.

      With all of this said however, I hate to be a downer and give my honest opinion that this will not last. In fact, I would hesitate to suggest it will last into next start. This is the type of puzzling thing that happens when a player enters a contract year and miraculously hits .300 and 30HR after a career stat line of .265 with 10 HR. Just how these athletes are able to dial up natural ability is something I don't think I will ever be able to understand. Only time will tell if this is a sign that things have turned around for Beckett. Around Boston there is a lot being talked about the difference in his performance when Jason Varitek catches vs. any other backstop. Granted, he may be somewhat more effective with a more knowledgeable counterpart behind the plate, but Varitek isn't giving Beckett a new shoulder or elbow, he's just puting fingers down and puting a glove somewhere.

In the end, this is why we watch the games and follow through the long 162 game grind that is the baseball season. This is what makes it interesting.