"In life, all good things must come to an end"

Hello everyone! I want to thank you for reading MLB-Perspectives and supporting my self-started blog that began as a place to put my thoughts and developed into several great opportunities. Sadly, this will be the last post that is entered here. However it is not the end of my writing days, in fact just the beginning.

Recently I have taken on two new roles in the baseball blogging world. I am a minor league/prospects writer at Seedlings To Stars, part of the FanSided Network. You can find my work at seedlingstostars.com

I am merging my most recent articles on here to a website called Baseball Reflections. On this site I will continue to write/blog about MLB-level content and just about anything else that I decide to write on that has to do with baseball.. sort of what I was doing here! You can find everything on baseballreflections.com, under the "columns" section there is a link to MLB-Perspectives, which is my own feature column!

I also welcome you to follow me on twitter @MLBPerspectives.

Thank you for the support!
-Bill

A Quick Note..

I have taken on a couple other ventures in the baseball blogging world recently that reflect a better exposure opportunity. I am not sure what will happen with MLB-Perspectives from here on forth. It's likely that I will still write here but on a much less regular basis due to my commitments at work, my family and my future ambitions.

I will update everyone once I get an idea of what my schedule will allow. Right now I am in the middle of perusing a career change for the better. In the meantime, this blog has provided me with a place to write about the sport I love. It has also made me some fellow colleague/friends that I would have never met if I had not made my love for baseball and writing more than just a hobby.

Right now I am the minor league, prospects and player development writer for FanSided.com. My work can be seen at seedlingstostars.com which is a division of the FanSided network. I am also in the middle of negotiations for another venture which may involve the merging of this site to bigger and better things. We may move off of blogger and make this a true legit .com site where you'll see greater amounts of content and more support from a marketing side.

I will keep you all updated.


Thanks,
-Bill

Aramis Is The Wrong Direction For Brewers

The Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to a 3-year deal today to play 3^rd and fill in the gap in offense that the departed Prince Fielder left via free agency. Although Fielder has yet to sign with another team, it’s all but a guarantee that the slugger will land somewhere other than Milwaukee for the next decade. By acquiring Ramirez, the Brewers upgrade their infield defense and add pop to a lineup that desperately needs it. Ramirez will be a nice addition, but it’s not enough to put them over the top. Now with Ryan Braun likely going to be missing the first 50 games of 2012, I hate the move and the direction Milwaukee is going in.

Their farm system is depleted, their best hitter is going to miss 1/3 of the 2012 season, and Ramirez is entering his mid-thirties. Three of their starters are up for free agency in 2012, and I highly doubt all three will be signed or replaced with adequate performance. They do not have the budget room to fill the gaps, and their farm system isn’t ready to step in and save the day. Not to mention K-rod accepted arbitration and is going to make almost as much as Jonathan Papelbon in 2012.

It might be ownership calling the shots right now, so I’ll give the Milwaukee front office the benefit of the doubt, but the right move for now and for the future is to part with everything but Rickie Weeks, Braun and Gallardo and build for the future. They’re essentially going “all-in” and closing their eyes with the odds against them. A plan that hasn’t worked and usually doesn’t work unless you’re the Yankees and can supplement those risks. Greinke, Marcum, Hart, Lucroy all have value to other teams. They’re all relatively affordable and not tied up to crazy contracts. Teams on the verge would pay a lot for their services.

Sometimes it hurts to be realistic and it’s not as fun as taking your chances and spinning the wheel one more time. But smart and sustained success is had by sometimes cutting your losses, realizing where you are and moving on. Unfortunately for the fans in Milwaukee, they’ll be waiting for quite a while before they see their Brew Crew being serious contenders.

Braun Tests Positive, Could Mean Big Changes in Milwaukee

It was just made public that NL MVP Ryan Braun has tested positive for performance enhancing drugs and will serve a 50-game suspension barring an appeal. This is extremely significant for Milwaukee going forward and all but surely takes them out of the bidding for Prince Fielder as Braun will miss 1/3 of the season in 2012. This news must come as a shock to the front office, and puts them in a very awkward position.

Both Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum are in the middle of working on contract extensions. The Milwaukee infield is abysmal with the exception of Rickie Weeks. The Brewers really relied on the Fielder/Braun combo for a large portion of their offensive production. If I were the GM over in Milwaukee I would use this opportunity to rebuild. Don't sign fielder, shop Greinke and Marcum and get some pieces that will help you for 2013-'14 because 2012 is essentially a loss without Braun in the lineup. I think the biggest mistake would be to continue the game plan and hope that they can pick back up in the second half of 2012. The offense isn't strong enough to hold everything together without Braun in such a strong division.

Arizona nabs Cahill and Breslow, send Jarrod Parker and others to Oakland

Billy Beane decided to essentially toss any hope for A's fans out the window yesterday when he dealt young ace in the making Trevor Cahill and effective RP Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks for SP prospect Jarrod Parker and two "prospects". This move is significant for the D'backs as their outlook on 2012 takes a sudden jump by adding a ground ball specialist with the best sinker in the game since former D'Backs ace, Brandon Webb.

By adding Cahill the D'backs add a ton of depth in a rotation that was questionable at the end. I think Cahill is the best pitcher on the D'backs right now, and will likely continue to get better if he can command his sinker a bit better going forward. I tweet'd yesterday that I have been wary of Cahill's health. While watching him in 2012 I noticed a slight difference in both his arm angle and the depth of his sinker. Although he regressed on a statistical end, which was expected, he also gave me warning signs on the eye test. If I'm wrong, which is quite possible, Arizona wins this trade in a vacuum. Reason I say that is because Parker will likely perform significantly better in Oakland than he would in Arizona. The ballpark factor cannot be denied here in Parker's side, much less in Cahill's due to his extreme ground ball splits. I would look to see Cahill back off of the slow breaking curve and use his power sinker a bit more, especially when pitching at home vs. teams with pop.

Parker is your typical scouts dream. He's got big velocity, a change with depth and a slider that was much better prior to Tommy John surgery which may return but if not he can use it as a show me pitch. I don't necessarily see how this trade really benefits anybody other than Arizona, as Cahill is likely to be better than Parker even if only by a small margin, and is cost efficient and we know what he's going to make until 2017. If Parker develops into an ace, Oakland will almost certainly need to move him and move him quickly because they're about the same age, only difference is that Cahill signed a team-friendly extension last season. The prospects given along with Parker aren't of impact, unless Ryan Cook magically learns how to command his breaking ball.

Arizona fans have a lot to be excited about if Cahill is healthy, but I am one of the few out there who isn't exactly sold on that fact. Time will tell.

Dipoto & Moreno bet Angels future on Pujols/Wilson

It was reported two days ago within the course of two hours that the LA Angels had signed both Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. By doing so, they simultaneously declared themselves favorites to win the AL West and pronounce them the "winners" of the 2011-'12 off-season. The buzz on Twitter the moment of the announced signing was intense and opinions varied immediately. Now that we've had time to sit and reflect on the signing, there seems to be a pretty general consensus from talent evaluators that although the Angels will be hurting in the final few years of this deal as Pujols surely will regress, the first 5-6 years of the deal will provide a much needed boost in offense that LA has lacked for several years now.

Arte Moreno passed on several big names (or was outbid) over the past couple of off-seasons. He passed on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in 2010, and last year passed up on Carl Crawford and his recently departed #1 starter in John Lackey. By doing so, he has landed the best hitter of my lifetime and arguably the best hitter of all time in Albert Pujols. At 10 years/$254MM, the Angels are betting that within the next 2-3 years they will be a major threat to win the World Series. By signing Wilson to a 6-year $77MM deal, they provided depth in their rotation that is a fearsome group. Not to mention, there are still rumors that they will look to deal defensive wiz Peter Bourjos in order to bolster their bullpen. This would allow Mike Trout to get a full season of solid defense and base-running for Mike Soscia with the potential that he advances with the bat and provides some pop.

With an excellent rotation, and a solid lineup the Angels look like they've leaped ahead of division rival Texas Rangers. Even if Texas goes out and signs Prince Fielder, I'm not sold on their rotation or their bullpen for that matter. Neftali Feliz, although talented, is an arm strength guy at this point in his career and will have some growing pains that will be tough to swallow when the club is built to win now. Texas is hoping that Feliz and Holland develop, and do so quickly otherwise they will not beat the Angels in a 5 or 7 game series.

Let me be clear here: I am not as excited about LA's lineup as others are. There are still holes and aging players  all through the lineup. Pujols will not be put in many situations to win games single-handedly as there is no real offensive threat behind him. Guys like Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and carry heavy salaries. The window is short, and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Jerry DiPoto to win and win NOW.

The Party Is In Miami

Looks like Will Smith had it right all along when he wrote the hit song some time ago “Welcome to Miami”. The Miami Marlins have made the biggest splashes of the offseason thus far by inking Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to long term deals. Reyes’ deal is a backloaded contract to ease the transition of payroll down in Miami and to allow more payroll flexibility this winter. There is no questioning Reyes’ talent, as he is one of the most productive threats in the game while on the field. That has been just it, keeping him on the field, as Reyes has been know to be a bit injury prone over the duration of his career. Most recently encountering hamstring issues that popped back up for a second time during the 2011 season.

All the drama lately has been surrounding not the Reyes signing, but the fact that Miami reportedly never consulted incumbent SS and uber-talented Hanley Ramirez about an inevitable defensive position change. It’s quite obvious that Reyes is both the current and future better defensive player, so a signing of Reyes was an automatic assumption that Ramirez was moving off of the position. There were reports last night that Ramirez was quoted by a friend that he did not want to move off the position, and may have requested a trade. By all counts this is a disaster if true. One thing is for sure: If Hanley requested a trade, the Marlins will have to make it happen. He hasn’t been exactly a model player from an effort standpoint already, never mind an unhappy player who doesn’t want to be there. Also, other GM’s will smell blood in the water and try to give as minimal as possible knowing Miami is in a tough spot since they’re trying to win NOW and will be forced to make the move rather than play out the market.

With the signing of Buehrle, the Marlins get a guy who’s going to give them some type of assurance. Josh Johnson has had health problems for the past two seasons in his shoulder, a bad spot for a pitcher to have issues. At this point, the elbow is something you see a high success rate of return following surgery. The shoulder is a completely different story, and from what I’ve read on shoulder injuries, they’re often a reflection of another injury in the elbow, and the shoulder gets injured trying to overcompensate. If Johnson comes back healthy and pitches 200-innings this year, Miami will be a lot deeper with guys like Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco pitching in the spots they should be, as 3 & 4’s rather than 2’s and 3’s. There’s also the chance that Miami goes and acquires CJ Wilson, which I would like to see. It just costs money, and Miami won’t have to dip into their talent pool to fill the spot. Even without another addition, Miami is in a much better position to succeed with Reyes and Buehrle assuming Hanley can get over himself and prove that his prime years are worth all of the hype.

Verlander wins AL MLP

Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander was named the 2011 American League MVP today and there has been much discussion surrounding the topic. Finishing in a close second was Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury who posted career highs in batting average, home runs and RBI's. A close third came Jose Bautista sporting his over 1k OPS while single-handedly keeping Toronto relevant north of the border.

Nobody is going to tell me that pitching wins did not have a part of the decision here. Zack Greinke had a season two years ago that was arguably more dominant than Verlander, and the discussion at the time was whether or not he could possibly win the Cy Young due to his low win-total. Last year you saw Felix Hernandez dominate hitters all season long, and again, the discussion was whether or not he should win the Cy (even though he inevitably did win). Now Verlander comes along and puts up very impressive numbers, but also 24 wins to boost his case and he wins the MVP after making 36 apperances.

The ironic part of this all is that it seems as though Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista took votes away from each other. There was a writer in Boston who basically said he voted for Verlander because "nobody stood out" to him. That is a ridiculous argument that makes me embarrassed to say he collects a paycheck to write his opinion. The award is given to the player who provides the most value. It seems as though there has been no real discussion of the standards of the award. But then again, some writers still vote based on pitching win totals, so I won't get too far ahead of myself.

With that said, here's my final ranking of who I would have voted for given a ballot:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Jose Bautista
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Justin Verlander
5. Miguel Cabrera

2011 World Series Wrapup, Look Ahead to Post-Pujols Cardinals

The 2011 World Series is over, but it's one I know I will certainly remember. The product on the field was excellent, with many games being close until the final innings and some going into extra's. No team had a particularly oustanding advantage on either side of the field. Although Texas' lineup is substantially better, we saw some players show their ability in St. Louis that may give fans some optimism when Albert Pujols inevitably ops for free agency.

David Freese and Allen Craig have shown a very advanced approach at the plate. They get on base, can hit for extra bases and work counts into their favor. At the beginning of 2011 it looked as though if Pujols leaves, the Cards are in a world of hurt. That doesn't seem to be the case anymore. Recently the Cards picked up Adam Wainwright's club option for 2012 and 2013 due to his progress in rehab. There was a rumor of a slim chance that Wainwright would possibly be available to pitch in the World Series, but I'm sure nobody believed that. It is a good sign that he is regaining his stuff.

Aside from the development of Freese and Craig, the Cards have two fireballers that are major league ready for 2012. It would come as no shock if Chris Carpenter regresses due to his age, but even if he is 85% the pitcher he is now, the Cardinals will have a fearsome pitching staff come second half of 2012 and beginning of 2013. Both Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez are aces in the making, with Miller ready to produce now. Martinez may need some additional development to start 2012, but the originally drafted Red Sox throws in the upper 90's, touching triple digits at times even into the later innings.

There is no discounting the major loss in production that losing the best hitter of all time will have on the Cards, but not all is lost. With some minor complimentary pieces added, they could be a force over the next 4-5 years. There is a press conference with Tony LaRussa scheduled and rumor is a possible retirement. If so, it's possible that Dave Duncan moves over to take the reigns. He has been reluctant to a management opportunity in the past, but a promotion in St. Louis would be completely different circumstances, ones which I believe Duncan would embrace.

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For true baseball fans, the 2011 World Series offers a breath of fresh air

I have to admit that this World Series offers a bit of optimism for those fans who realize the talent disparity between the American and National Leagues. If you were to take an overall view of the talent level, the American League has been significantly more "stacked" with talent for many years now. Sometimes you'll run across the occasional joke that the NL West is the new version of the 4-A ballplayer. However, we are starting to notice a bit of a swing as NL clubs are moving towards building their teams similar to AL teams. For some time the pitching and defense ONLY model was what you most often saw in NL clubs, especially those who have limited payroll flexibility.

Now there is less and less room for error in front offices, and clubs are finding value in players that they previously overlooked. Teams are finding an even more "true" value for all the analytical metrics out there. Stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) are a way for the less statistically inclined, but hardcore fan to take a look at a players overall value. The counting stats that almost everyone can relate to are taking a backseat to true value-based stats. This is the concept behind Money Ball, but it's just becoming common knowledge and lingo now.

St. Louis Cardinals are a great example of a mid-market team capitalizing on their peak skill level. They may (and probably will) lose arguably the best hitter of all-time in the off-season to free agency, but their team is deep, and there is a wave of talent coming up that will allow them to soften the blow of losing Pujols. Other mid-market teams are losing these types of players and taking years, if not decades to recover.

That's what makes this series so interesting. You have the Rangers powerful lineup full of sluggers, and big power arms. Then you have the Adam Wainwright-less St. Louis Cardinals with an AL-style lineup with depth and a bullpen that is performing well at the right time. That's really the key to playoff baseball, getting in a rhythm when it matters most. You can say that teams play 162 games all year to lose a small series and be out of contention and denote the importance of the playoffs, or you can take it for what it is and enjoy it. I choose to enjoy it, and relish at how incredibly close in talent these two teams are.

Enjoy this World Series and think about how the game has changed. Embrace it, because in a league with no salary cap, we're finally seeing the day we never thought we would see.

Game Theory Application in Pitching Sequences

game theory

 

noun

a mathematical theory that deals with strategies for maximizinggains and minimizing losses within prescribed constraints, as therules of a card game: widely applied in the solution of variousdecision-making problems, as those of military strategy andbusiness policy.

Through my time as a professional poker player in college, I dabbled and experimented and educated myself in any way possible to gain an edge on the competition. For those of you whom are not aware, poker has adapted (especially online poker) from old school degenerate gamblers who are dumb as rocks, to extremely intelligent and talented mathematicians who are ready and willing to exploit any edge they can identify. It has adapted beyond a game of cards, into a smaller, less complex version of the stock market.

One of the topics I found extremely interesting was game theory. In essence, what game theory teaches you, or attempts to teach you is the way to "solve" a particular set of problems. In reality, that's what any game is: a set of problems that must be solved as efficiently as possible to achieve the greatest result. As in poker, there is a few players who are so talented mathematically that they have "solved" heads-up limit hold'em to create a situation where no opponent can achieve an edge more than 50%. Incredible, but even a computer cannot beat these brilliant minds when playing optimally over a big enough sample size.

Baseball analysis is advancing at light speed. The terms the average fan uses now were advanced concepts 10 years ago. The thing that GM's are using now are ways to come as close to an optimal decision as possible, all things considered of course. They may not be right every single time, but they're right more often.. and that's all you can really do in business, in the markets, and in life. Using mathematics with an ever-increasing sample size is allowing the brilliant minds to undercover things the naked eye can't and won't see. 

About a month ago I was on a plane and thought of how many similar parts there are to poker, investing and baseball. So I proposed a question that I still don't quite have the answer to: Is it possible to apply game theory to pitch selection. And if so, are pitchers and/or pitching coaches currently using these methods in pre-game preparation and analysis of opposing pitchers? If a pitcher throws a 3-2 fastball too often, he's not optimally presenting enough of a portfolio of pitches and will likely be hit hard. Almost anybody can figure this out, but is there room for improvement and who is capable of doing this?

The first guy that comes to mind is Cliff Lee. He is mechanically sound, and doesn't give away what he is throwing. He is able to throw 5-6 different pitches and command/control them all with great proficiency. He often throws a pitch that you don't expect him to because he has the ability to locate every pitch in his arsenal. But is that feel, or does he apply math to his pitching sequences? I have no clue because I am not his pitching coach, but it's interesting to think about and if this is something pitching coaches and organizations have philosophically taken on.

What do you think?

How a players character impacts their value

While watching the Carlos Zambrano show this week on Sports Center and Baseball Tonight, I began to think about players coming up who have had character issues and how they were dealt with. Jim Bowden, former GM of several MLB clubs was discussing Elijah Dukes and what his philosophy is regarding players who cause more issues than they solve. It is incredibly difficult to just boot a player off of your roster when they have a ton of natural talent. After all, your role as the GM of a club is to make it win and talent ultimately wins championships.

Bowden calmly stated how he would have handled the Zambrano situation if he were running the Cubs by stating "I would cut him". An $18 million dollar per year player being let go with nothing of value gained whatsoever.. I guess the economy isn't all that bad, especially if you're a member of the Ricketts family. Now these are the obvious situations where a player is clearly regressing in pure talent, and his attitude (previously accepted) no longer has a place on the team because his value just isn't there to justify the aggravation. But what about guys like Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rios? What about guys like Colby Rasmus and Milton Bradley? These are the types of things that managers deal with that we only see on occasion unless it translates onto the field performance.

Although all of those players have their own set of issues, it's widely known that some type of character problems have arisen but their natural talent and/or contracts keep them around. Tony LaRussa ran Rasmus out of town to get the command-less Edwin Jackson and some other scrap-heap pieces. Alex Rios was a waiver claim that the White Sox gave up nothing for, but also assumed the massive deal he had in place. He has shown flashes of not playing hard and feeling like he has somewhere better to be despite enormous talent.

Bradley was very talented. A switch-hitter who could hit for power and some average and ran pretty well in his prime. However anybody who watched Bradley can tell you how volatile his emotions were and still are. Then there's Hanley Ramirez. This guy has more talent than all of those players previously named, but shows a general lack of interest in baseball on a fairly consistent basis. There's no doubt Hall of Fame ability shooting from his veins, but it won't be reached and I'm fairly certain about that.

The bottom line is that some guys can be taught. Some just get it one day and realize that this is a short life, and an even shorter playing career. Some guys just don't ever get it, and they're often gone before we can say "man, that guy had all the ability, but...".

What This Season Means to Pujols Future

Is it me, or has some of the shine worn off of Albert Pujols? The slow start aside, he seems to be genuinely aggravated by the entire free agency process. Every interview he is asked the questions over and over again, and it seems to be wearing on him a bit. I remember spring training and the big questions were all about Pujols and what the Cardinals will do if he leaves. Then Wainwright went down, and the notion was that the Cards would just float through this year and try to rebuild when Pujols leaves. Maybe they would make a run, but the general opinion was that they didn't have a team good enough to win it all. And in all reality, that couldn't be anymore true as you watch their season. It seems to lack that one big piece to put them over the top. Not to mention Chris Carpenter is most likely leaving at the end of the year, and there is a strong possibility that Cardinals fans have seen the last of Adam Wainwright because his deal ends shortly as well.

Through 488 PA's, Pujols is posting a 3.8 batting WAR (Baseball Reference), the lowest of his career. Granted he's still got ~200AB's left before the end of the season, and he has heated up quite a bit over the past month and a half. However that is a great margin to make up, even for a player of Pujols caliber. A lot of conversation has been swirling that it's possible that the team who acquires Pujols in the inevitable mega-deal this off season may make a potentially crippling decision. Is he in decline? Is this the beginning of the end for the best player I have ever watched with my own two eyes? Even though some out there would argue that may be the case, it's highly unlikely.

Now that the same sizes have started to make sense, you can see some evidence that this is either A. fluky or B. he's hurt/distracted or maybe both. This year Puols' BABIP is .259, that's 37 points lower than his career .311 mark. His walk rate is 8.8% compared to a career 13.2% career mark. So some of the regression is due to the fact that he's getting unlucky when he makes contact and that is further illustrated when you look at his K-rate.. it's 9.0% with a career mark of 9.5%. So he's doing all the right stuff, but variance is not on his side for the time being.

Maybe for one team out there they'll get a discount if some scouts and front offices have soured on Pujols. That team may get a steal, because it's my opinion that he will return to his old self and perform at a high level for another 2-4 years. After he starts to regress with age, it won't be elite performance, but he will still be very valuable and put together quality AB's.

The Future of Assigning Player Values and Contract Size/Duration

While sitting at Panera Bread having dinner today and following a trip to take advantage of the Borders Book Stores closing and buying plentiful amounts of baseball books that will take me months to read, I had a thought. I was listening to the owner of Baseball-Reference.com on the Baseball Today podcast talk about the difference between theirs and FanGraphs.com WAR ratings, and it got me thinking about the future of player values and their reflection of contracts.

So.. will there be a day where there are no longer a need for agents? Will the ability to effectively peg a value to a certain player be so perfected that we no longer need to argue over years and dollars? What if it becomes so spot-on that there is no negotiating.. the science and math of analysis of performance, ROI, expected outcome and player value is so concrete that players are paid a certain amount as a rookie and then paid FOLLOWING their season based on WAR. The players union would hate it, but in all reality wouldn't it make sense? Jayson Werth, closer your ears my friend, because there may come a day where the industry looks back and says "what the hell were we thinking?!"

As someone who follows the evolution of how organizations are progressing, and how statistical analysis has come such a long way in such a short time.. its completely conceivable that negotiating will no longer have a place in the game and that performance and expected return will speak for itself. Players who perform are paid an equivalent share of the teams income based on their ability to drive revenue (contribute towards wins). Crazy? It may seem as though this is logical, but FAR FAR from reality, or at least modern day reality. At least then we would truly put the logic of statistical analysis to the test as brains in baseball will overtake feeling.

What do you think?

Strasburg to begin rehab assignment

The most hyped prospect that I have ever encountered since getting serious about the game in about 2008 is entering his rehab assignment in A-ball after having elbow reconstructive surgery just 11 months prior. Strasburg came out of the gates blazing once called up to the Nationals but subsequently blew out his elbow not long after leading to Tommy John surgery and a lost year. In the meantime however, Strasburg has been reported to have upped his workout regimen in an effort to increase his durability and endurance during games. Strasburg told reporters he believed the reason he was injured last year was due to fatigue later on in games that put additional stress on his elbow leading to the surgery. This would make sense in some fashion, because if you are not getting on top of the ball driving it downwards, it puts additional stress on your elbow to keep the ball from rising up and out of the strike zone.

Although logical, I don't have a short memory and a lot of scouts and talent evaluators don't either. The initial prognosis of Strasburg's mechanics are not very good dating back to his days as a minor league prospect. The stuff is unquestioned, his legs and midsection are strong and durable which help create the ability to throw at the velocity that he does throughout his outings. However when you take a look at his arm action and upper body separation throughout his delivery.. it has a tremendous resemblance to another stud turned burnout: Mark Prior. That's a scary comp, but looking at video of the two side by side, just looking at their arm action, you'll see where it comes from.

The delivery looks smooth to the casual observer, although Strasburg is much more of a max effort guy than Prior. However effort level (although relatively important) isn't as important as how someone is proficient with their key mechanical points. For a good example of this, watch Tim Lincecum. Although very high in effort, he's mechanically sound at the critical points in his delivery. If he weren't, I can say with almost certainty that he would have been hurt several times now with the amount of splitters he tosses during each game.

Much like many other baseball fans, I got chills watching his debut against Pittsburgh. Every one of his 14 strikeouts weren't just dominant, they were overpowering. It would be awesome to see the Nationals with Strasburg, Zimmerman and a core of other young arms leading an up and coming offense, but looking at the facts in front of me I don't see Strasburg staying healthy for any great length of time.

Lackey Reported Injury Is No Surprise

Yesterday Peter Gammons or ESPN reported that starting pitcher John Lackey had a tear in his pitching elbow that may require Tommy John surgery at some point this season. That would make it the second starter in Boston's rotation that has gone down to the injury in two months. Interestingly enough, both pitchers were struggling mightily, and in Lackey's case, still struggling despite still being on the active roster.

Lackey called the report "a lie" and went on to talk about how everyone in the staff has some type of "tear" in their arms. Not necessarily owning up to it, but also not firmly denying that the injury existed. A closer look at his stuff this season would lead one to believe that the account is actually correct and that Lackey is most likely hurt. This is not a numbers thing, and as much as it is painful to go by the eye test, sometimes it's good to use this to try and spot trends in the numbers and reasons why. If a pitcher is pitching poorly and not locating, that's one thing. However if a guy is just hurt and there's nothing he can do to correct the performance without getting it corrected or going on the shelf, that's something certainly worth noting.

A casual fan most likely will not notice these type of changes in mechanics, stuff and slight velocity dips. We've seen guys get by on dwindling stuff in the past, but it's more likely that the pitcher will suffer bad results because they have learned to pitch a certain style, and when that is no longer working they either adjust or fail and retire or get sent to the minors. In Lackey's case, his contract is vastly too large, even if undeserving, to be cut or sent to another club unless they somehow find Arte Moreno and get lucky with a Vernon Wells-esque type of move. Lackey has always relied on the success of his breaking pitches to pitch effectively. Another pitcher similar to Lackey is Oakland starting pitcher Brett Anderson. Although Anderson's stuff is a tick better, their pitching styles are quite similar and Anderson is on the verge of having TJ himself.

Lackey never had quite Zack Greinke 2009 stuff, but there's a clear regression in the quality of his breaking pitches. Without a fastball to get past hitters, I do not see the results changing much from here on out if he stays on the field. The best bet would be to go under the knife, take next season out of the equation, and get the sharpness of his pitches back. If he chooses to be stubborn and try to pitch through it, he may likely be one of the biggest busts in terms of performance vs. dollars paid in MLB history.

Dodgers File for Bankruptcy

     In a less than shocking move, Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy this morning to give him a chance to keep ownership control of the Dodgers. If McCourt had not filed, there was reportedly "almost no chance" he would make the payroll at the end of June, and therefor would have completely lost control of the franchise due to MLB ownership regulations. This window provided by the filing will give McCourt $150MM in assets to meet his obligations while they hammer out the lawsuit against MLB for not allowing his mega TV deal with Fox to go through.

    McCourt has been making the case that MLB is not allowing him to run his business and save his assets by blocking the TV deal that was set in place under the divorce agreement with Jamie McCourt, and really.. who can blame MLB for not allowing the deal to take place? He has done nothing but deceive the fans of the Dodgers, and put his own personal well-being ahead of the organizational health. Although that is far from uncommon in business, it's a venture that receives a massive amount of attention from media and MLB is putting an end to it right now. It's a wake up call that will surely be noted for many years when a new owner inquires about an MLB franchise.

     The disappointing part is that about 4 years ago I made the prediction that the Dodgers would either win a World Series, or at least be in serious contention right about now. They had the talent in the minors, the payroll to support the gaps in talent, and the fan base to drive a continued run of success. That has fallen by the wayside, and it doesn't appear it's going to get any better either. If you paid attention to this years stocked draft, the Dodgers are not taking advantage of whatsoever due to not being able to go an inch over slot.

I think the general consensus from the fans point of view, and possibly even the league is that they want this to just go away just as they did the steroid era. There are many issues in baseball right now, but this is at the top of the list by far. Hopefully they can just get someone in there as soon as possible, otherwise we may go ahead and forget about the Dodgers as a successful franchise until 2020.

Interleague Play Is Awesome!

I hope all of you baseball fans have been watching the interleague play over the past week or two. There has been much discussion across many different formats, and writers about interleague play and even more opinions (as usual). One thing you see being brought up a lot is the disparity between the two leagues. It is essentially a known fact at this point that the NL is the worst, and it's really not all that close, especially considering sample sizes over the past couple of decades. Of course, you're at a significant disadvantage by not having (or needing) a DH-type of quality hitter on your bench. If you had such a hitter, you would find a spot in your lineup and on the field for him, a la Lance Berkman. Interestingly enough, I don't feel that the star players in the NL are any worse than the stars in the AL, it's more of a disparity between the lower tier guys and the replacement level players in each league. That is where the true difference shines through in interleague play. But enough on that..

I absolutely love interleague play. I am constantly surrounded by Red Sox fans who are not fans of baseball, more fans of the Red Sox brand and culture associated with "their town/city". It's rather unfortunate, because I think that a lot of people would really come to enjoy the game a bit more if they watched what happened on the field and truly enjoyed the game for what it is. That is the essence of interleague play. So many more factors and possibilities come into play while two differently constructed organizations take the field. To make a comparison from my professional poker background, it's like playing at a table full of talented professional players and then switching to a table with a couple of wild players and seeing how the dynamic changes.. sort of.

What I am really saying is that interleague is for people who love baseball. If you're just a fan of one team, and the success associated with that team, what is your motivation to watch interleague games since you will not see them in the playoffs unless you and the opposing team make the World Series? It's actually part of why the trading deadline in baseball is so exciting for baseball fans. Those of you who did not realize just how good Adrian Gonzalez is before he dawned a Red Sox uniform (aside from what you have heard from media) probably had no clue how good he really is. To me, the ability to scout a player that maybe I have missed or haven't had a chance to see just yet is awesome because I rely on my personal opinions quite a bit when analyzing certain players. It keeps me intrigued, it keeps things fresh, it's what baseball is!

So I ask the readers.. what is your opinion on interleague play? Post here or on the MLB-Persspectives Facebook page and let me know what you think. You can also read my opinions and analysis on Twitter: @MLBPerspectives

Thanks for reading!

Look ahead to Monday's First Year Player Draft

     Around this time every year is where hardcore fans of teams that are performing poorly start to get excited, it's the MLB first year player draft. 2011 has been deemed the Tampa Bay Rays draft, because Tampa has a significant amount of picks this year (12 out of the top 70 or so). Of course, you only amass those type of picks from losing really good players like Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano, but sometimes you also get high picks from guys that don't necessarily match up but you'll take them anyway (Carlos Pena, Chad Qualls, Randy Choate). There is a ton of coverage all over the web from some incredible scouts and writers so I won't go too deeply into advanced scouting reports, but I'd like to share some thoughts on the way this draft could change some organizations.

     Gerrit Cole, the RHP from UCLA is looking like the consensus top talent in this years draft. He's got 4 above average pitches, with 3 of them being "plus" and his fastball is BIG and sits between 94-97 all game. Recently he was clocked at 101 in the 8th inning of his latest outing, almost cementing the top pick this year.. you would think. If it were anybody but the Pirates, I would all but be sure of them taking Cole without batting an eyelash, but they have been reported to be in on all 3 of the top talents and knowing their reluctance to take guys who will command big price tags its possible they shock us once again, a la Matt Wieters.

The thing about the MLB draft is that it's always worked in a sort of "tier'ing" system due in large part that picks are usually not a sure thing unless there's guys that are no-doubters, but those are really rare in baseball considering the failure rate between the day after the draft and the day (if) the player reaches the big leagues and fills his projection or something close to it. Aside from the multitude of picks that the Rays have, worth watching will be the Diamondbacks and the Royals. Diamondbacks with the two high picks, and on the verge of contention and young talent with a subpar rotation and a reputation of going for polished guys. The Royals are interesting because of the recent news that John Lamb is undergoing Tommy John and will likely not a factor until 2013, and Mike Montgomory pitching worse and worse it seems. There are a lot of high expectations for K.C., and they have an interesting decision to make here.

The New York Mets could have a makeover plan coming soon

The MLB draft is Monday June 6th, and many teams are drooling at the talent available this year. Many experts have been quoted as saying that this is the deepest draft in some years, offering a multitude of talent filled with raw, toolsy high school players and impact-ready college talent. As the scouting and baseball landscape is changing before our eyes, you're starting to see teams a lot more efficient with their decisions to draft players, and seeing those results within a couple of years instead of 10 years down the line. Which got me to thinking about the Mets and how the draft coming up on Monday could be the first step to a drastic turnaround for the organization.

With the level of money due to come off the books for the 2012 season, and with news breaking today that the organization will sell a minority stake of $200MM to an investment group, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic if you're a Mets fan. GM Sandy Alderson is one of the best in the game, and will also benefit from the new cash flow, as it will likely take some of the pressure off of him when deciding about which players to acquire in the draft. The Mets have always been big spenders both in free agency, and in the international scene. Once highly touted prospect Fernando Martinez never really panned out, as well as some other notably high dollar international signings. In all reality, you'll be able to tell what the Mets are planning by who they draft. If they take college level players that are closer to helping now, chances are they'll hang onto David Wright and build around him. If they go young, chances are you'll see them unload the players worth getting value for and shoot for a rebuild.

The biggest question that I have, is that if the Mets go into a full rebuilding mode how will that help the financial situation? For a team that has said they expect to lose upwards of $70MM this year, wouldn't drafting and signing talent that's able to help immediately make more sense to avoid a potential disaster? If so, Alderson has really no choice, because the ownership group signs his check as well as giving the final okay to signing players they acquire. A team trying to acquire Reyes will likely have to overpay, and given the most recent trends of the trading deadline, a deal as big as the Mets would need to let Reyes go will probably not happen. A deal for Wright would equally take a package as big, likely bigger because he is under control for a couple more years and that would offer the acquiring team financial certainty. Beltran is the guy that will go almost surely if the team paying gives them talent better than that they think they can acquire with the draft picks in the 2012 draft.

It just seems all too likely that the Mets will in fact NOT go into a rebuilding phase, and more likely that they try to improve their club for the immediate future. Only time will tell what their plans are, and if I were a Mets fan I would be watching intently this Monday.