Is it me, or has some of the shine worn off of Albert Pujols? The slow start aside, he seems to be genuinely aggravated by the entire free agency process. Every interview he is asked the questions over and over again, and it seems to be wearing on him a bit. I remember spring training and the big questions were all about Pujols and what the Cardinals will do if he leaves. Then Wainwright went down, and the notion was that the Cards would just float through this year and try to rebuild when Pujols leaves. Maybe they would make a run, but the general opinion was that they didn't have a team good enough to win it all. And in all reality, that couldn't be anymore true as you watch their season. It seems to lack that one big piece to put them over the top. Not to mention Chris Carpenter is most likely leaving at the end of the year, and there is a strong possibility that Cardinals fans have seen the last of Adam Wainwright because his deal ends shortly as well.
Through 488 PA's, Pujols is posting a 3.8 batting WAR (Baseball Reference), the lowest of his career. Granted he's still got ~200AB's left before the end of the season, and he has heated up quite a bit over the past month and a half. However that is a great margin to make up, even for a player of Pujols caliber. A lot of conversation has been swirling that it's possible that the team who acquires Pujols in the inevitable mega-deal this off season may make a potentially crippling decision. Is he in decline? Is this the beginning of the end for the best player I have ever watched with my own two eyes? Even though some out there would argue that may be the case, it's highly unlikely.
Now that the same sizes have started to make sense, you can see some evidence that this is either A. fluky or B. he's hurt/distracted or maybe both. This year Puols' BABIP is .259, that's 37 points lower than his career .311 mark. His walk rate is 8.8% compared to a career 13.2% career mark. So some of the regression is due to the fact that he's getting unlucky when he makes contact and that is further illustrated when you look at his K-rate.. it's 9.0% with a career mark of 9.5%. So he's doing all the right stuff, but variance is not on his side for the time being.
Maybe for one team out there they'll get a discount if some scouts and front offices have soured on Pujols. That team may get a steal, because it's my opinion that he will return to his old self and perform at a high level for another 2-4 years. After he starts to regress with age, it won't be elite performance, but he will still be very valuable and put together quality AB's.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Monday, August 15, 2011
The Future of Assigning Player Values and Contract Size/Duration
While sitting at Panera Bread having dinner today and following a trip to take advantage of the Borders Book Stores closing and buying plentiful amounts of baseball books that will take me months to read, I had a thought. I was listening to the owner of Baseball-Reference.com on the Baseball Today podcast talk about the difference between theirs and FanGraphs.com WAR ratings, and it got me thinking about the future of player values and their reflection of contracts.
So.. will there be a day where there are no longer a need for agents? Will the ability to effectively peg a value to a certain player be so perfected that we no longer need to argue over years and dollars? What if it becomes so spot-on that there is no negotiating.. the science and math of analysis of performance, ROI, expected outcome and player value is so concrete that players are paid a certain amount as a rookie and then paid FOLLOWING their season based on WAR. The players union would hate it, but in all reality wouldn't it make sense? Jayson Werth, closer your ears my friend, because there may come a day where the industry looks back and says "what the hell were we thinking?!"
As someone who follows the evolution of how organizations are progressing, and how statistical analysis has come such a long way in such a short time.. its completely conceivable that negotiating will no longer have a place in the game and that performance and expected return will speak for itself. Players who perform are paid an equivalent share of the teams income based on their ability to drive revenue (contribute towards wins). Crazy? It may seem as though this is logical, but FAR FAR from reality, or at least modern day reality. At least then we would truly put the logic of statistical analysis to the test as brains in baseball will overtake feeling.
What do you think?
So.. will there be a day where there are no longer a need for agents? Will the ability to effectively peg a value to a certain player be so perfected that we no longer need to argue over years and dollars? What if it becomes so spot-on that there is no negotiating.. the science and math of analysis of performance, ROI, expected outcome and player value is so concrete that players are paid a certain amount as a rookie and then paid FOLLOWING their season based on WAR. The players union would hate it, but in all reality wouldn't it make sense? Jayson Werth, closer your ears my friend, because there may come a day where the industry looks back and says "what the hell were we thinking?!"
As someone who follows the evolution of how organizations are progressing, and how statistical analysis has come such a long way in such a short time.. its completely conceivable that negotiating will no longer have a place in the game and that performance and expected return will speak for itself. Players who perform are paid an equivalent share of the teams income based on their ability to drive revenue (contribute towards wins). Crazy? It may seem as though this is logical, but FAR FAR from reality, or at least modern day reality. At least then we would truly put the logic of statistical analysis to the test as brains in baseball will overtake feeling.
What do you think?
Monday, August 8, 2011
Strasburg to begin rehab assignment
The most hyped prospect that I have ever encountered since getting serious about the game in about 2008 is entering his rehab assignment in A-ball after having elbow reconstructive surgery just 11 months prior. Strasburg came out of the gates blazing once called up to the Nationals but subsequently blew out his elbow not long after leading to Tommy John surgery and a lost year. In the meantime however, Strasburg has been reported to have upped his workout regimen in an effort to increase his durability and endurance during games. Strasburg told reporters he believed the reason he was injured last year was due to fatigue later on in games that put additional stress on his elbow leading to the surgery. This would make sense in some fashion, because if you are not getting on top of the ball driving it downwards, it puts additional stress on your elbow to keep the ball from rising up and out of the strike zone.
Although logical, I don't have a short memory and a lot of scouts and talent evaluators don't either. The initial prognosis of Strasburg's mechanics are not very good dating back to his days as a minor league prospect. The stuff is unquestioned, his legs and midsection are strong and durable which help create the ability to throw at the velocity that he does throughout his outings. However when you take a look at his arm action and upper body separation throughout his delivery.. it has a tremendous resemblance to another stud turned burnout: Mark Prior. That's a scary comp, but looking at video of the two side by side, just looking at their arm action, you'll see where it comes from.
The delivery looks smooth to the casual observer, although Strasburg is much more of a max effort guy than Prior. However effort level (although relatively important) isn't as important as how someone is proficient with their key mechanical points. For a good example of this, watch Tim Lincecum. Although very high in effort, he's mechanically sound at the critical points in his delivery. If he weren't, I can say with almost certainty that he would have been hurt several times now with the amount of splitters he tosses during each game.
Much like many other baseball fans, I got chills watching his debut against Pittsburgh. Every one of his 14 strikeouts weren't just dominant, they were overpowering. It would be awesome to see the Nationals with Strasburg, Zimmerman and a core of other young arms leading an up and coming offense, but looking at the facts in front of me I don't see Strasburg staying healthy for any great length of time.
Although logical, I don't have a short memory and a lot of scouts and talent evaluators don't either. The initial prognosis of Strasburg's mechanics are not very good dating back to his days as a minor league prospect. The stuff is unquestioned, his legs and midsection are strong and durable which help create the ability to throw at the velocity that he does throughout his outings. However when you take a look at his arm action and upper body separation throughout his delivery.. it has a tremendous resemblance to another stud turned burnout: Mark Prior. That's a scary comp, but looking at video of the two side by side, just looking at their arm action, you'll see where it comes from.
The delivery looks smooth to the casual observer, although Strasburg is much more of a max effort guy than Prior. However effort level (although relatively important) isn't as important as how someone is proficient with their key mechanical points. For a good example of this, watch Tim Lincecum. Although very high in effort, he's mechanically sound at the critical points in his delivery. If he weren't, I can say with almost certainty that he would have been hurt several times now with the amount of splitters he tosses during each game.
Much like many other baseball fans, I got chills watching his debut against Pittsburgh. Every one of his 14 strikeouts weren't just dominant, they were overpowering. It would be awesome to see the Nationals with Strasburg, Zimmerman and a core of other young arms leading an up and coming offense, but looking at the facts in front of me I don't see Strasburg staying healthy for any great length of time.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Lackey Reported Injury Is No Surprise
Yesterday Peter Gammons or ESPN reported that starting pitcher John Lackey had a tear in his pitching elbow that may require Tommy John surgery at some point this season. That would make it the second starter in Boston's rotation that has gone down to the injury in two months. Interestingly enough, both pitchers were struggling mightily, and in Lackey's case, still struggling despite still being on the active roster.
Lackey called the report "a lie" and went on to talk about how everyone in the staff has some type of "tear" in their arms. Not necessarily owning up to it, but also not firmly denying that the injury existed. A closer look at his stuff this season would lead one to believe that the account is actually correct and that Lackey is most likely hurt. This is not a numbers thing, and as much as it is painful to go by the eye test, sometimes it's good to use this to try and spot trends in the numbers and reasons why. If a pitcher is pitching poorly and not locating, that's one thing. However if a guy is just hurt and there's nothing he can do to correct the performance without getting it corrected or going on the shelf, that's something certainly worth noting.
A casual fan most likely will not notice these type of changes in mechanics, stuff and slight velocity dips. We've seen guys get by on dwindling stuff in the past, but it's more likely that the pitcher will suffer bad results because they have learned to pitch a certain style, and when that is no longer working they either adjust or fail and retire or get sent to the minors. In Lackey's case, his contract is vastly too large, even if undeserving, to be cut or sent to another club unless they somehow find Arte Moreno and get lucky with a Vernon Wells-esque type of move. Lackey has always relied on the success of his breaking pitches to pitch effectively. Another pitcher similar to Lackey is Oakland starting pitcher Brett Anderson. Although Anderson's stuff is a tick better, their pitching styles are quite similar and Anderson is on the verge of having TJ himself.
Lackey never had quite Zack Greinke 2009 stuff, but there's a clear regression in the quality of his breaking pitches. Without a fastball to get past hitters, I do not see the results changing much from here on out if he stays on the field. The best bet would be to go under the knife, take next season out of the equation, and get the sharpness of his pitches back. If he chooses to be stubborn and try to pitch through it, he may likely be one of the biggest busts in terms of performance vs. dollars paid in MLB history.
Lackey called the report "a lie" and went on to talk about how everyone in the staff has some type of "tear" in their arms. Not necessarily owning up to it, but also not firmly denying that the injury existed. A closer look at his stuff this season would lead one to believe that the account is actually correct and that Lackey is most likely hurt. This is not a numbers thing, and as much as it is painful to go by the eye test, sometimes it's good to use this to try and spot trends in the numbers and reasons why. If a pitcher is pitching poorly and not locating, that's one thing. However if a guy is just hurt and there's nothing he can do to correct the performance without getting it corrected or going on the shelf, that's something certainly worth noting.
A casual fan most likely will not notice these type of changes in mechanics, stuff and slight velocity dips. We've seen guys get by on dwindling stuff in the past, but it's more likely that the pitcher will suffer bad results because they have learned to pitch a certain style, and when that is no longer working they either adjust or fail and retire or get sent to the minors. In Lackey's case, his contract is vastly too large, even if undeserving, to be cut or sent to another club unless they somehow find Arte Moreno and get lucky with a Vernon Wells-esque type of move. Lackey has always relied on the success of his breaking pitches to pitch effectively. Another pitcher similar to Lackey is Oakland starting pitcher Brett Anderson. Although Anderson's stuff is a tick better, their pitching styles are quite similar and Anderson is on the verge of having TJ himself.
Lackey never had quite Zack Greinke 2009 stuff, but there's a clear regression in the quality of his breaking pitches. Without a fastball to get past hitters, I do not see the results changing much from here on out if he stays on the field. The best bet would be to go under the knife, take next season out of the equation, and get the sharpness of his pitches back. If he chooses to be stubborn and try to pitch through it, he may likely be one of the biggest busts in terms of performance vs. dollars paid in MLB history.
Monday, June 27, 2011
Dodgers File for Bankruptcy
In a less than shocking move, Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy this morning to give him a chance to keep ownership control of the Dodgers. If McCourt had not filed, there was reportedly "almost no chance" he would make the payroll at the end of June, and therefor would have completely lost control of the franchise due to MLB ownership regulations. This window provided by the filing will give McCourt $150MM in assets to meet his obligations while they hammer out the lawsuit against MLB for not allowing his mega TV deal with Fox to go through.
McCourt has been making the case that MLB is not allowing him to run his business and save his assets by blocking the TV deal that was set in place under the divorce agreement with Jamie McCourt, and really.. who can blame MLB for not allowing the deal to take place? He has done nothing but deceive the fans of the Dodgers, and put his own personal well-being ahead of the organizational health. Although that is far from uncommon in business, it's a venture that receives a massive amount of attention from media and MLB is putting an end to it right now. It's a wake up call that will surely be noted for many years when a new owner inquires about an MLB franchise.
The disappointing part is that about 4 years ago I made the prediction that the Dodgers would either win a World Series, or at least be in serious contention right about now. They had the talent in the minors, the payroll to support the gaps in talent, and the fan base to drive a continued run of success. That has fallen by the wayside, and it doesn't appear it's going to get any better either. If you paid attention to this years stocked draft, the Dodgers are not taking advantage of whatsoever due to not being able to go an inch over slot.
I think the general consensus from the fans point of view, and possibly even the league is that they want this to just go away just as they did the steroid era. There are many issues in baseball right now, but this is at the top of the list by far. Hopefully they can just get someone in there as soon as possible, otherwise we may go ahead and forget about the Dodgers as a successful franchise until 2020.
McCourt has been making the case that MLB is not allowing him to run his business and save his assets by blocking the TV deal that was set in place under the divorce agreement with Jamie McCourt, and really.. who can blame MLB for not allowing the deal to take place? He has done nothing but deceive the fans of the Dodgers, and put his own personal well-being ahead of the organizational health. Although that is far from uncommon in business, it's a venture that receives a massive amount of attention from media and MLB is putting an end to it right now. It's a wake up call that will surely be noted for many years when a new owner inquires about an MLB franchise.
The disappointing part is that about 4 years ago I made the prediction that the Dodgers would either win a World Series, or at least be in serious contention right about now. They had the talent in the minors, the payroll to support the gaps in talent, and the fan base to drive a continued run of success. That has fallen by the wayside, and it doesn't appear it's going to get any better either. If you paid attention to this years stocked draft, the Dodgers are not taking advantage of whatsoever due to not being able to go an inch over slot.
I think the general consensus from the fans point of view, and possibly even the league is that they want this to just go away just as they did the steroid era. There are many issues in baseball right now, but this is at the top of the list by far. Hopefully they can just get someone in there as soon as possible, otherwise we may go ahead and forget about the Dodgers as a successful franchise until 2020.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Interleague Play Is Awesome!
I hope all of you baseball fans have been watching the interleague play over the past week or two. There has been much discussion across many different formats, and writers about interleague play and even more opinions (as usual). One thing you see being brought up a lot is the disparity between the two leagues. It is essentially a known fact at this point that the NL is the worst, and it's really not all that close, especially considering sample sizes over the past couple of decades. Of course, you're at a significant disadvantage by not having (or needing) a DH-type of quality hitter on your bench. If you had such a hitter, you would find a spot in your lineup and on the field for him, a la Lance Berkman. Interestingly enough, I don't feel that the star players in the NL are any worse than the stars in the AL, it's more of a disparity between the lower tier guys and the replacement level players in each league. That is where the true difference shines through in interleague play. But enough on that..
I absolutely love interleague play. I am constantly surrounded by Red Sox fans who are not fans of baseball, more fans of the Red Sox brand and culture associated with "their town/city". It's rather unfortunate, because I think that a lot of people would really come to enjoy the game a bit more if they watched what happened on the field and truly enjoyed the game for what it is. That is the essence of interleague play. So many more factors and possibilities come into play while two differently constructed organizations take the field. To make a comparison from my professional poker background, it's like playing at a table full of talented professional players and then switching to a table with a couple of wild players and seeing how the dynamic changes.. sort of.
What I am really saying is that interleague is for people who love baseball. If you're just a fan of one team, and the success associated with that team, what is your motivation to watch interleague games since you will not see them in the playoffs unless you and the opposing team make the World Series? It's actually part of why the trading deadline in baseball is so exciting for baseball fans. Those of you who did not realize just how good Adrian Gonzalez is before he dawned a Red Sox uniform (aside from what you have heard from media) probably had no clue how good he really is. To me, the ability to scout a player that maybe I have missed or haven't had a chance to see just yet is awesome because I rely on my personal opinions quite a bit when analyzing certain players. It keeps me intrigued, it keeps things fresh, it's what baseball is!
So I ask the readers.. what is your opinion on interleague play? Post here or on the MLB-Persspectives Facebook page and let me know what you think. You can also read my opinions and analysis on Twitter: @MLBPerspectives
Thanks for reading!
I absolutely love interleague play. I am constantly surrounded by Red Sox fans who are not fans of baseball, more fans of the Red Sox brand and culture associated with "their town/city". It's rather unfortunate, because I think that a lot of people would really come to enjoy the game a bit more if they watched what happened on the field and truly enjoyed the game for what it is. That is the essence of interleague play. So many more factors and possibilities come into play while two differently constructed organizations take the field. To make a comparison from my professional poker background, it's like playing at a table full of talented professional players and then switching to a table with a couple of wild players and seeing how the dynamic changes.. sort of.
What I am really saying is that interleague is for people who love baseball. If you're just a fan of one team, and the success associated with that team, what is your motivation to watch interleague games since you will not see them in the playoffs unless you and the opposing team make the World Series? It's actually part of why the trading deadline in baseball is so exciting for baseball fans. Those of you who did not realize just how good Adrian Gonzalez is before he dawned a Red Sox uniform (aside from what you have heard from media) probably had no clue how good he really is. To me, the ability to scout a player that maybe I have missed or haven't had a chance to see just yet is awesome because I rely on my personal opinions quite a bit when analyzing certain players. It keeps me intrigued, it keeps things fresh, it's what baseball is!
So I ask the readers.. what is your opinion on interleague play? Post here or on the MLB-Persspectives Facebook page and let me know what you think. You can also read my opinions and analysis on Twitter: @MLBPerspectives
Thanks for reading!
Friday, June 3, 2011
Look ahead to Monday's First Year Player Draft
Around this time every year is where hardcore fans of teams that are performing poorly start to get excited, it's the MLB first year player draft. 2011 has been deemed the Tampa Bay Rays draft, because Tampa has a significant amount of picks this year (12 out of the top 70 or so). Of course, you only amass those type of picks from losing really good players like Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano, but sometimes you also get high picks from guys that don't necessarily match up but you'll take them anyway (Carlos Pena, Chad Qualls, Randy Choate). There is a ton of coverage all over the web from some incredible scouts and writers so I won't go too deeply into advanced scouting reports, but I'd like to share some thoughts on the way this draft could change some organizations.
Gerrit Cole, the RHP from UCLA is looking like the consensus top talent in this years draft. He's got 4 above average pitches, with 3 of them being "plus" and his fastball is BIG and sits between 94-97 all game. Recently he was clocked at 101 in the 8th inning of his latest outing, almost cementing the top pick this year.. you would think. If it were anybody but the Pirates, I would all but be sure of them taking Cole without batting an eyelash, but they have been reported to be in on all 3 of the top talents and knowing their reluctance to take guys who will command big price tags its possible they shock us once again, a la Matt Wieters.
The thing about the MLB draft is that it's always worked in a sort of "tier'ing" system due in large part that picks are usually not a sure thing unless there's guys that are no-doubters, but those are really rare in baseball considering the failure rate between the day after the draft and the day (if) the player reaches the big leagues and fills his projection or something close to it. Aside from the multitude of picks that the Rays have, worth watching will be the Diamondbacks and the Royals. Diamondbacks with the two high picks, and on the verge of contention and young talent with a subpar rotation and a reputation of going for polished guys. The Royals are interesting because of the recent news that John Lamb is undergoing Tommy John and will likely not a factor until 2013, and Mike Montgomory pitching worse and worse it seems. There are a lot of high expectations for K.C., and they have an interesting decision to make here.
Gerrit Cole, the RHP from UCLA is looking like the consensus top talent in this years draft. He's got 4 above average pitches, with 3 of them being "plus" and his fastball is BIG and sits between 94-97 all game. Recently he was clocked at 101 in the 8th inning of his latest outing, almost cementing the top pick this year.. you would think. If it were anybody but the Pirates, I would all but be sure of them taking Cole without batting an eyelash, but they have been reported to be in on all 3 of the top talents and knowing their reluctance to take guys who will command big price tags its possible they shock us once again, a la Matt Wieters.
The thing about the MLB draft is that it's always worked in a sort of "tier'ing" system due in large part that picks are usually not a sure thing unless there's guys that are no-doubters, but those are really rare in baseball considering the failure rate between the day after the draft and the day (if) the player reaches the big leagues and fills his projection or something close to it. Aside from the multitude of picks that the Rays have, worth watching will be the Diamondbacks and the Royals. Diamondbacks with the two high picks, and on the verge of contention and young talent with a subpar rotation and a reputation of going for polished guys. The Royals are interesting because of the recent news that John Lamb is undergoing Tommy John and will likely not a factor until 2013, and Mike Montgomory pitching worse and worse it seems. There are a lot of high expectations for K.C., and they have an interesting decision to make here.
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