Jays and Mariners Swap Young Fireballers

I think I would be in the majority with how surprised I was to see Toronto and Seattle making this type of trade. I am not surprised on Toronto's end, but more so Seattle, because in all reality they are going "all-in" this year by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and a second-tier prospect.

Seattle is getting a guy that has the stuff and the makeup to be a great setup guy or a closer if he really puts his talent to use. Last year was his first full year in the big leagues, and although his ERA wasn't all that impressive (4.58), he has shown me that with a few adjustments he can improve. He has a plus fastball that is consistently in the mid 90's and sometimes touches 97-98 MPH. He has developed a change-up to tackle left handed hitters and last time I saw him pitch it seemed to have good depth and deception. I have seen him show a slider to right hander's to keep them off of his fastball, but I think that in time the change-up will be his go-to second pitch even against right handed batters.

The second guy involved in the trade is a strong tools outfielder who has a lot of raw ability but has yet to show an ability to put it together and struggles with plate discipline. League will fit in well with Seattle and I think he will eventually take over the closers role, especially knowing how inconsistent that incumbent closer David Aardsma can be.

What is being said around baseball is that this trade seems pretty lopsided. In my opinion it doesn't make baseball sense from a GM's point of view to trade a potential top of the rotation guy for a setup guy. Granted they are both young and League is more proven than Morrow, but Morrow has shown that he can deliver one plus pitch for an entire game. If the Jays handle him right and develop what's missing from his arsenal, this will be a steal and we will all look at Seattle and say "why did they do that?"

With these kind of trades there is always a lot of speculation because you're dealing with relatively young and not very well established major leaguers. If you put aside the future results, looking at this deal from an X's and O's standpoint makes me really question Seattle's willingness to give up a guy that could be an impact starter for many years to come.

On to other stuff:

The Yankees surprised everyone and went out and got another ace in Javier Vazquez. I think this was a brilliant move by the Yankees. They are basically creating a team that on paper looks unbeatable. Vazquez is unquestionably durable and is a two-way pitcher, in that he can get ground balls but also racks up high strikeout counts. I know that Atlanta needed to shed payroll, but unless they see Melky Cabrera developing into a more all-around hitter I think they lose in this deal.

Winter Meetings Wrap-up

Indianapolis… really? I don’t know who came up with the bright idea to do some type of PR stunt and make it look like the executives and highly paid officials of MLB teams live some type of normal life and hold the meetings in Indianapolis. You would be hard pressed to find a place with worse weather conditions on this time of year. Here’s a hint: if the professional football team of that city plays at an indoor stadium, you probably could pick a better place to hold a convention in the middle of the winter. I attempted to feel bad for some of the writers complaining about it also, but then I realized that they’re living the dream reporting on baseball every day and traveling across the country and whatever feelings I had quickly dissipated.

I chose to write about the meetings at the end because of two reasons. The first being that it was expected that the meetings would be relatively slow this year, and that was true. Secondly, a lot of the moves that teams make sometimes lead to reactionary moves which changes the entire landscape of their decision making.

The perfect opening for the Atlanta Braves. They went ahead and offered both of their premier relievers, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano arbitration. They are both Type A free agents, but I clearly expected a lot of interest in those guys because they are impact arms and teams can’t ever get enough of those. There has been no movement from the Mike Gonzalez camp, but I think the likelihood of a team offering him big dollars and giving up a pick is higher than Soriano just because he is a lefty with good stuff, rather than a righty with good stuff.



Soriano, however, accepted arbitration after the Braves had already made plans that both guys would sign contracts elsewhere. By signing both Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner to one year deals, the Braves couldn’t afford to take on the $8MM that Soriano would be paid through his arbitration hearing. So what did they do? They spun him off to Tampa Bay, and received Jesse Chavez, who was the player in the Akinori Iwamura trade.

This is really a brilliant trade for both sides. Atlanta gets a quality arm at a cheap cost, and Tampa Bay gets their closer at the cost of a guy who didn’t fit into their lineup. Now this bumps everybody in the Tampa bullpen down a notch, and puts them in the places they belong. Dan Wheeler is not a closer, but Soriano has the stuff to be a very successful closer for Tampa and I look for him to nail down 30-35 saves if he stays healthy. Atlanta now gets a guy with a quality arm in Chavez, and takes $8MM off their books.

Oh and by the way, don’t forget that Tampa Bay doesn’t give up a first round pick for Soriano, that right there is a small detail flying under the radar. Now if they can only get rid of that disgusting contract of Pat Burrell they will be in great shape. Willy Aybar should be the DH this year, and should have been last year. If the Rays are smart, they should look into trading Carl Crawford sooner than later. It will be close to impossible for them to resign Crawford, and I doubt he will want to come back after so many horrible years in Tampa. The value they could get in return for Crawford would be enormous. These are the types of movies that small market teams have to make in order to stay competitive. Look what the Tigers just got for Curtis Granderson! Granderson isn’t the complete player that Crawford is, even if Crawford is a couple of years older than him.

Scott Boras reminds me of this: If you always lie over and over, eventually you will start to believe your own lies. Well, everybody seems to be calling him crazy at his overrating and high contract demands of Rick Ankiel and Adrian Beltre. But one thing that simply amazes me, is he always finds somebody to sip on some of that crazy juice and spend big dollars on his guys. Why should he try and level with the GM’s and play into their hands? Hey, it’s easy to call the guy crazy but I constantly marvel at how the guy does it year in and year out. He is worth every dollar from a player perspective.

I’m not going to go on and on about the mega deal between Arizona, Detroit and New York Yankees because there is a ton of stuff written about it all over the place. I do think that everyone harping on Arizona GM Josh Byrnes for making this deal are missing the point. Max Scherzer is NOT Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a front of the rotation starter who is still relatively young and not overly expensive. Ian Kennedy was awful in the AL East, and for reason. He doesn’t have great stuff and he won’t light up the radar screen, but in the NL West he will be a serviceable No. 5 starter who comes very very cheap.



Scherzer is a Scott Boras guy, and is coming up to that point in his career where he’ll start to command some big dollars himself. Arizona is going for the throat this year because of the Dodgers situation, and I love the aggressive approach. Yes, Scherzer has great stuff but he hasn’t shown the ability to command it and put it together yet. Jackson was one of the best starters in the AL in the first half this year not named Zack Greinke. Detroit gets guys who have flashy names, but in all reality the ONLY player who has the ability to be an impact guy is Edwin Jackson. Curtis Granderson is a nice guy who hits righties well, but he can’t hit left hander’s and the league will punish him for that in key spots. If I’m a manager in the NL West, the thought of going into a playoff series against Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and Brandon Webb I am very scared. Check back with me at the end of the 2010 season and put this one in the books: I think Arizona got the best deal.

One more small note. The situation in Dodger camp is really sad. They are so close to being a great team, and the divorce is totally destroying it. Not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is the same as writing on the front page of the LA Times that fans shouldn’t waste their time showing up this season. If Chad Billingsley can start to command his stuff a little better and lower his pitch counts he is a legitimate ace. Between Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw their rotation only needed a few minor tweaks to win that division. Their window is short. Soon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and others will be up for arbitration and they won’t come cheap.

Another thing about the situation in LA. Manny Ramirez has his legacy in his hands this coming season. He is set to make $20MM, and had a pretty forgettable season last year in the midst of the PED scandal and the fact that he simply didn’t produce and his bat looked awfully slow.

Scutaro Signing Defines Angst of Small Market Teams

          The Boston Red Sox signed veteran SS Marco Scutaro to a 2-year deal with a mutual option for the third year. It is reported that the deal will have both 2010, and 2011 at $5M, with a $1M signing bonus. Boston plugs their gaping hole at the SS position (again), and can check off one of their major needs during the offseason. In the meantime Toronto, who offered Scutaro arbitration a couple of weeks ago, gains a first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Both teams are happy with this result because Toronto just signed Alex Gonzalez and just before that signed John McDonald to an extension, essentially locking up the available infield positions.

          Scutaro hasn't had the typical path to success in his career. He played mostly as a backup and only recently shined enough to warrant a starting position and he succeeded. What he did at his position is the part that most don't realize, because the SS position is lacking in offensive production across baseball. I have always been a little suspicious when guys all of a sudden put up dramatically better numbers the year before they reach free agency. Sure, some may be just pure chance, but in all reality the players are aware of what is at stake. Don't get me wrong, I think Scutaro will be a solid player for the Red Sox. He does everything solidly, nothing great, which would be a welcomed attribute in Boston. The part that really bugs me is that the Red Sox gave up a first round pick to get a guy on the verge of decline. I don't like the trade for the Red Sox going forward, all we can do now is wait and see what the numbers say.

           The worst part of the deal for the Red Sox is the loss of the first-round pick. Yes, the Red Sox got -- or stole, if you're a bitter Met fan -- a first-round pick for Billy Wagner, but that pick was theirs whether or not they signed Scutaro or another Type-A free agent.

          The loser here appears to be Jed Lowrie, whose wrist injury wiped out a 2009 season in which he was expected to contend for the starting shortstop job. Given the long recovery time from serious wrist problems -- such players often need a full year after the injury has healed to regain all their strength in that joint -- it does make sense for Boston to avoid relying on Lowrie for anything in 2010, but I wonder if this means he's become trade bait for a big arm or bat.

From Keith Law's Blog on ESPN.com 

          Jed Lowrie now takes a back seat on his road to recover from a wrist injury. This will not help his development, but will give him time to bounce back with less pressure. If Scutaro somehow is a total bust and Lowrie is recovering well, he can slide in and Scutaro can take a utility position off of the bench. Now is Scutaro succeeds, Lowrie's value is essentially lost to the Red Sox and he will in all likeliehood be moved to another team. Lowrie is a solid player and projects to be an average to good major leaguer. He is a switch hitter who plays solid defensively and can play multiple positions.

          The amazing part about this signing is that most people in the media are raving about how good this deal is for the sox, I am on the other side of the boat. Sure, Scutaro is good and fits into the Money Ball equation perfectly. Desperation moves sometimes work for clubs, and sometimes they come back to haunt them. The first round pick that the Red Sox lost in this deal is extremely valueable. It narrows the gap of time that Jed Lowrie can prove his worth, and you also lose about $16 million dollars (at least) in the process of paying Scutaro. 

          What does this say to the small to mid-market teams out there? There are teams willing to give up a first round pick and multi-year deals to aging middle infielders. It must be nice to be Theo Epstein, because to most teams losing the pick would be a disaster, not to mention all of the money and lack of production the SS position has provided over the past decade. But when you consider the bigger picture of the signing, it becomes clear that some GM's almost have to be a magician to make a small to mid-market team become a success.