The Tampa Bay Rays are an incredibly savvy and sound organization from front to back. With Joe Maddon on the front lines managing his team to get whatever edge he can on the competition, to Andrew Friedman in the front office squeezing out any type of value he can find across the nation (and the world). It's all very impressive work, and given their fiscal situation, you would be hard pressed to find a business model that has survived on such limited resources but has produced for such an extended time period. With that said, I have come to some conclusions based on scouting their performances across their 25-man roster, and what they have available in the minors that can help them out this year, if they were to require such assistance.
The rotation is very solid. With David Price flashing plus stuff every night out, he truely anchors a staff that is about as balanced as you will find. Aside from Price, Jeremy Hellickson has stepped in as the #2 starter (at least in terms of performance periferals). I am a very big fan of Hellickson's stuff and makeup. The whole package looks and feels to be a guy that will be able to compete in the challenging AL East for many years to come. Following Price and Hellickson in the rotation are a recently resurgent James Shields, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann. None of them really play out to bottom of the rotation type of guys, there's more likely a bunch of 3's and 4's who can play a bit "up" from that when they're puting all the pieces together.
Normally one would be excited, and there's plenty of reason to be if you're staring at their rotation on a nightly basis. Price is down right dominating when he's on, Hellickson pitches like a trained assassin, Shields is very good when he locates the 4-seamer to go with his devastating change, Davis is a pure power guy who can look dominating and then lost and Niemann has an all-around arsenal and hits his spots well. After the Matt Garza trade, they only really have one guy left in their rotation who is going to make a significant amount of money, being Shields. In 2011 he is set to make $4.25MM. That is the last guaranteed year of his 4-year $11.25MM deal signed in August of 2000. The team is still under control of Shields for years 2012-14 with team options. He is set to make $7MM in 2012, otherwise the team can buy out for $2MM, or of course they could trade him while he is pitching well and is still cost-effective for some teams who may be looking to upgrade at starting pitching. He's only 29 years old, so there's plenty left in the tank and other teams may feel that they could possibly sign him to a new deal if they acquired him via trade. He is set to make $12MM in 2014 at age 32 but could conceivably benefit from a trade to any other division than the AL East.
The front office of the Rays are in a position to trade Shields now, and it would make all the sense in the world. He has been basically a replacement level pitcher (in terms of WAR stats over the past 4 seasons) through his career. Granted, he will likely boost his value by moving to a different division. I have been harping for a while now that the Dodgers could possibly come along with James Loney as an option, but Loney's performance has declined over the past years when it should be increasing, so a potential fit is most likely no longer there. Time will tell, and I suspect the trade will happen at the All-Star break or it won't happen at all especially with Shields pitching well.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Monday, April 11, 2011
Josh Beckett's Performance on Sunday vs. Yankees
Last night was like watching a highlight reel from 1999 when Josh Beckett was firing strikes and mowing down opposing hitters in a Marlins uniform. Rarely did any pitch hang, or stay straight. Hitters were either out on their front foot, or taking emergency hacks.. sometimes looking as though they would fall flat on their face when he broke off his 12-6 curveball. It was a clinic put on by a guy that in the past two years hasn't shown any life to his pitches and basically looked like he was at a career crossroads.
These are the types of things that drive scouts crazy, because it cannot be explained from any baseball metric, and to be honest there weren't a whole lot of people out there that would have predicted this outcome. In fact Beckett's stuff was so good, it actually looked improved upon compared to when he originally signed with the Red Sox. His straight change, although lacking in velocity differential, seems to have a significant amount more depth and deception than in the past. It acts almost as a really hard (less movement) splitter. His new cutter was not his biggest weakness, in fact it made hitters look silly and at times had plus movement acting almost like a slider. The curve, which had diminished in both depth and location was on the black and buckling knees the entire night. The fastball was Cliff Lee-esque and barely ever left the paint leaving hitters only capable to foul it off in the hopes that they find a ball to hit on the next pitch. The only thing was that the next pitch was on the black also and getting by hitters, or it was an offspeed pitch that made them look silly.
I made a somewhat sarcastic comment to a friend watching the game with me "watch, he'll be on the DL by the end of this week" because I really cannot understand how this drastic of a change in EVERY pitch can happen overnight. The team he faced has an excellent blend of hitters who are very smart and don't give anything away. Beckett made them look like they were the San Diego Padres last night, and if this is a sign of CONSISTENT things to come, the Red Sox just jumped back into favorites to win the division and the World Series.
With all of this said however, I hate to be a downer and give my honest opinion that this will not last. In fact, I would hesitate to suggest it will last into next start. This is the type of puzzling thing that happens when a player enters a contract year and miraculously hits .300 and 30HR after a career stat line of .265 with 10 HR. Just how these athletes are able to dial up natural ability is something I don't think I will ever be able to understand. Only time will tell if this is a sign that things have turned around for Beckett. Around Boston there is a lot being talked about the difference in his performance when Jason Varitek catches vs. any other backstop. Granted, he may be somewhat more effective with a more knowledgeable counterpart behind the plate, but Varitek isn't giving Beckett a new shoulder or elbow, he's just puting fingers down and puting a glove somewhere.
In the end, this is why we watch the games and follow through the long 162 game grind that is the baseball season. This is what makes it interesting.
These are the types of things that drive scouts crazy, because it cannot be explained from any baseball metric, and to be honest there weren't a whole lot of people out there that would have predicted this outcome. In fact Beckett's stuff was so good, it actually looked improved upon compared to when he originally signed with the Red Sox. His straight change, although lacking in velocity differential, seems to have a significant amount more depth and deception than in the past. It acts almost as a really hard (less movement) splitter. His new cutter was not his biggest weakness, in fact it made hitters look silly and at times had plus movement acting almost like a slider. The curve, which had diminished in both depth and location was on the black and buckling knees the entire night. The fastball was Cliff Lee-esque and barely ever left the paint leaving hitters only capable to foul it off in the hopes that they find a ball to hit on the next pitch. The only thing was that the next pitch was on the black also and getting by hitters, or it was an offspeed pitch that made them look silly.
I made a somewhat sarcastic comment to a friend watching the game with me "watch, he'll be on the DL by the end of this week" because I really cannot understand how this drastic of a change in EVERY pitch can happen overnight. The team he faced has an excellent blend of hitters who are very smart and don't give anything away. Beckett made them look like they were the San Diego Padres last night, and if this is a sign of CONSISTENT things to come, the Red Sox just jumped back into favorites to win the division and the World Series.
With all of this said however, I hate to be a downer and give my honest opinion that this will not last. In fact, I would hesitate to suggest it will last into next start. This is the type of puzzling thing that happens when a player enters a contract year and miraculously hits .300 and 30HR after a career stat line of .265 with 10 HR. Just how these athletes are able to dial up natural ability is something I don't think I will ever be able to understand. Only time will tell if this is a sign that things have turned around for Beckett. Around Boston there is a lot being talked about the difference in his performance when Jason Varitek catches vs. any other backstop. Granted, he may be somewhat more effective with a more knowledgeable counterpart behind the plate, but Varitek isn't giving Beckett a new shoulder or elbow, he's just puting fingers down and puting a glove somewhere.
In the end, this is why we watch the games and follow through the long 162 game grind that is the baseball season. This is what makes it interesting.
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