The Tampa Bay Rays are an incredibly savvy and sound organization from front to back. With Joe Maddon on the front lines managing his team to get whatever edge he can on the competition, to Andrew Friedman in the front office squeezing out any type of value he can find across the nation (and the world). It's all very impressive work, and given their fiscal situation, you would be hard pressed to find a business model that has survived on such limited resources but has produced for such an extended time period. With that said, I have come to some conclusions based on scouting their performances across their 25-man roster, and what they have available in the minors that can help them out this year, if they were to require such assistance.
The rotation is very solid. With David Price flashing plus stuff every night out, he truely anchors a staff that is about as balanced as you will find. Aside from Price, Jeremy Hellickson has stepped in as the #2 starter (at least in terms of performance periferals). I am a very big fan of Hellickson's stuff and makeup. The whole package looks and feels to be a guy that will be able to compete in the challenging AL East for many years to come. Following Price and Hellickson in the rotation are a recently resurgent James Shields, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann. None of them really play out to bottom of the rotation type of guys, there's more likely a bunch of 3's and 4's who can play a bit "up" from that when they're puting all the pieces together.
Normally one would be excited, and there's plenty of reason to be if you're staring at their rotation on a nightly basis. Price is down right dominating when he's on, Hellickson pitches like a trained assassin, Shields is very good when he locates the 4-seamer to go with his devastating change, Davis is a pure power guy who can look dominating and then lost and Niemann has an all-around arsenal and hits his spots well. After the Matt Garza trade, they only really have one guy left in their rotation who is going to make a significant amount of money, being Shields. In 2011 he is set to make $4.25MM. That is the last guaranteed year of his 4-year $11.25MM deal signed in August of 2000. The team is still under control of Shields for years 2012-14 with team options. He is set to make $7MM in 2012, otherwise the team can buy out for $2MM, or of course they could trade him while he is pitching well and is still cost-effective for some teams who may be looking to upgrade at starting pitching. He's only 29 years old, so there's plenty left in the tank and other teams may feel that they could possibly sign him to a new deal if they acquired him via trade. He is set to make $12MM in 2014 at age 32 but could conceivably benefit from a trade to any other division than the AL East.
The front office of the Rays are in a position to trade Shields now, and it would make all the sense in the world. He has been basically a replacement level pitcher (in terms of WAR stats over the past 4 seasons) through his career. Granted, he will likely boost his value by moving to a different division. I have been harping for a while now that the Dodgers could possibly come along with James Loney as an option, but Loney's performance has declined over the past years when it should be increasing, so a potential fit is most likely no longer there. Time will tell, and I suspect the trade will happen at the All-Star break or it won't happen at all especially with Shields pitching well.
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