It's about 60 games through the regular season, and there have been some pretty exciting developments thus far. Every season there are always teams that start hot, cold and just don't do anything special. One amazing thing is just how close the teams are in basically every division, and I don't think that's just a coincidence. With the development of teams using statistical analysis, there seems to be a closer gap between the talent level and ability to fill gaps on the major league level. Instead of losing a big free agent and wondering what they will do, a lot of teams have a game plan set up with tiers of talent in the minors.
The big developments through the beginning of May:
1. Ryan Howard signs 5-year $125MM extension with the Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are one of the few clubs that openly admit/pronounce that they do not have a single person in their front office that uses statistical analysis to make their player personnel decisions. How they can go that route is beyond me, but that's their claim, regardless if it is true.That said, Ryan Howard is one of the elite talents in baseball. His power, regardless if it regresses a bit, will still provide plenty in the park that he plays 82 games a year in. His defense has improved and he is still working on it. He has also cut down his strikeouts, but he's strong enough to still provide the offensive production when he lets the ball get deeper in the zone. The interesting part is that he still had two years left in his original extension. This also essentially waves goodbye to Jason Werth, another guy who has made vast improvements and has a plus arm in right field. There is a possibility that Ruben Amaro JR. decided that he wants as much cost certainty going forward. The thing that puzzles me is that they fell in love with the player, and went out and did whatever they could to keep him. That is nice for Philly fans, but I cannot concieve Howard keeping his value through the length of the deal. He will be in his mid-30's when it is up, and we have seen the deterioration of heavy-set power hitters once they hit their early-to-mid 30's. He is the second best hitter on the team, so it will be interesting to see what direction Philly goes in from here.
2. The San Diego Padres are leading the division
You heard me, the Padres have finally gotten some production in the offense from somebody not named Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley has gotten off to a good start, and the pitching staff has been solid from top to bottom.The bullpen is one of the best in the game, so it's concievable that they could continue to win games with a small margin, but I can't see this lasting much longer. The interesting part of this all is not their record, but the position that GM Jed Hoyer is in. If he had a reconstruction plan built in the offseason, he will be facing major pressure from the owners and fans if he blows the team up now. He still has to do it, and the sooner the better. He may be able to trade Adrian Gonzalez and spin him for major league ready talent. That will set up the team for success, and put the fans at ease if they can see the immedate return on losing their star player.
3. The AL East
The Tampa Bay Rays have started out on fire and taken hold of the AL East. Their starting pitching looks incredible from top to bottom. Both David Price and Wade Davis have established themselves beyond their hype and provided the power pitching needed to succeed in the toughest division in baseball. Don't forget about the Yankees however. Robinson Cano is the AL MVP thus far. Joe Girardi slid him into the 5-hole behind both Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and he has been providing incredible production ever since. Phil Hughes looks like a burgeoning ace, who commands his pitches well and has a deep arsenal of pitches and looks he can provide to hitters. Even with Hughes developing, recent acquisition Javier Vazquez has been down right awful. His stuff is still there, but he just cannot get pitches by AL East hitters and has left a few hanging sliders up in the zone in all the worst times. He finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last year with the Braves and he still certainly has the stuff and potential to be successful, but he has to get himself together because he is the key to that rotation.
4. The Colorado Rockies look gooooooooooood...
They have such a great mix of talent on their team. Carlos Gonzalez has been incredible for them, continuing the success he had in the second half last year and adding another talented bat to their outfield mix. Ubaldo Jimenez has been out of this world and has an arsenal of stuff that is rivaled by nobody in baseball. Their bullpen is about to get a bit stronger with Huston Street returning from injury, and slotting their setup guys where they belong. Jhoulys Chacin made a start last week and looked incredible, stating why he is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. It will be interesting to see if he can be consistent and command his offspeed stuff, because that has been the only thing holding him back from being a complete pitcher and an ace.
I would touch on the Red Sox and their slow start, but there's nothing really to say. They have played how I predicted them to... nothing special. Their farm system is quite overrated, and it looks as though they will have to buy the players they will need to improve.
Enjoy the season, and next column will most likely be about Roy Halladay and his transition to the NL. Also, how the Cliff Lee swap sets both teams up for the future.
