A Quick Note..

I have taken on a couple other ventures in the baseball blogging world recently that reflect a better exposure opportunity. I am not sure what will happen with MLB-Perspectives from here on forth. It's likely that I will still write here but on a much less regular basis due to my commitments at work, my family and my future ambitions.

I will update everyone once I get an idea of what my schedule will allow. Right now I am in the middle of perusing a career change for the better. In the meantime, this blog has provided me with a place to write about the sport I love. It has also made me some fellow colleague/friends that I would have never met if I had not made my love for baseball and writing more than just a hobby.

Right now I am the minor league, prospects and player development writer for FanSided.com. My work can be seen at seedlingstostars.com which is a division of the FanSided network. I am also in the middle of negotiations for another venture which may involve the merging of this site to bigger and better things. We may move off of blogger and make this a true legit .com site where you'll see greater amounts of content and more support from a marketing side.

I will keep you all updated.


Thanks,
-Bill

Aramis Is The Wrong Direction For Brewers

The Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to a 3-year deal today to play 3^rd and fill in the gap in offense that the departed Prince Fielder left via free agency. Although Fielder has yet to sign with another team, it’s all but a guarantee that the slugger will land somewhere other than Milwaukee for the next decade. By acquiring Ramirez, the Brewers upgrade their infield defense and add pop to a lineup that desperately needs it. Ramirez will be a nice addition, but it’s not enough to put them over the top. Now with Ryan Braun likely going to be missing the first 50 games of 2012, I hate the move and the direction Milwaukee is going in.

Their farm system is depleted, their best hitter is going to miss 1/3 of the 2012 season, and Ramirez is entering his mid-thirties. Three of their starters are up for free agency in 2012, and I highly doubt all three will be signed or replaced with adequate performance. They do not have the budget room to fill the gaps, and their farm system isn’t ready to step in and save the day. Not to mention K-rod accepted arbitration and is going to make almost as much as Jonathan Papelbon in 2012.

It might be ownership calling the shots right now, so I’ll give the Milwaukee front office the benefit of the doubt, but the right move for now and for the future is to part with everything but Rickie Weeks, Braun and Gallardo and build for the future. They’re essentially going “all-in” and closing their eyes with the odds against them. A plan that hasn’t worked and usually doesn’t work unless you’re the Yankees and can supplement those risks. Greinke, Marcum, Hart, Lucroy all have value to other teams. They’re all relatively affordable and not tied up to crazy contracts. Teams on the verge would pay a lot for their services.

Sometimes it hurts to be realistic and it’s not as fun as taking your chances and spinning the wheel one more time. But smart and sustained success is had by sometimes cutting your losses, realizing where you are and moving on. Unfortunately for the fans in Milwaukee, they’ll be waiting for quite a while before they see their Brew Crew being serious contenders.

Braun Tests Positive, Could Mean Big Changes in Milwaukee

It was just made public that NL MVP Ryan Braun has tested positive for performance enhancing drugs and will serve a 50-game suspension barring an appeal. This is extremely significant for Milwaukee going forward and all but surely takes them out of the bidding for Prince Fielder as Braun will miss 1/3 of the season in 2012. This news must come as a shock to the front office, and puts them in a very awkward position.

Both Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum are in the middle of working on contract extensions. The Milwaukee infield is abysmal with the exception of Rickie Weeks. The Brewers really relied on the Fielder/Braun combo for a large portion of their offensive production. If I were the GM over in Milwaukee I would use this opportunity to rebuild. Don't sign fielder, shop Greinke and Marcum and get some pieces that will help you for 2013-'14 because 2012 is essentially a loss without Braun in the lineup. I think the biggest mistake would be to continue the game plan and hope that they can pick back up in the second half of 2012. The offense isn't strong enough to hold everything together without Braun in such a strong division.

Arizona nabs Cahill and Breslow, send Jarrod Parker and others to Oakland

Billy Beane decided to essentially toss any hope for A's fans out the window yesterday when he dealt young ace in the making Trevor Cahill and effective RP Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks for SP prospect Jarrod Parker and two "prospects". This move is significant for the D'backs as their outlook on 2012 takes a sudden jump by adding a ground ball specialist with the best sinker in the game since former D'Backs ace, Brandon Webb.

By adding Cahill the D'backs add a ton of depth in a rotation that was questionable at the end. I think Cahill is the best pitcher on the D'backs right now, and will likely continue to get better if he can command his sinker a bit better going forward. I tweet'd yesterday that I have been wary of Cahill's health. While watching him in 2012 I noticed a slight difference in both his arm angle and the depth of his sinker. Although he regressed on a statistical end, which was expected, he also gave me warning signs on the eye test. If I'm wrong, which is quite possible, Arizona wins this trade in a vacuum. Reason I say that is because Parker will likely perform significantly better in Oakland than he would in Arizona. The ballpark factor cannot be denied here in Parker's side, much less in Cahill's due to his extreme ground ball splits. I would look to see Cahill back off of the slow breaking curve and use his power sinker a bit more, especially when pitching at home vs. teams with pop.

Parker is your typical scouts dream. He's got big velocity, a change with depth and a slider that was much better prior to Tommy John surgery which may return but if not he can use it as a show me pitch. I don't necessarily see how this trade really benefits anybody other than Arizona, as Cahill is likely to be better than Parker even if only by a small margin, and is cost efficient and we know what he's going to make until 2017. If Parker develops into an ace, Oakland will almost certainly need to move him and move him quickly because they're about the same age, only difference is that Cahill signed a team-friendly extension last season. The prospects given along with Parker aren't of impact, unless Ryan Cook magically learns how to command his breaking ball.

Arizona fans have a lot to be excited about if Cahill is healthy, but I am one of the few out there who isn't exactly sold on that fact. Time will tell.

Dipoto & Moreno bet Angels future on Pujols/Wilson

It was reported two days ago within the course of two hours that the LA Angels had signed both Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. By doing so, they simultaneously declared themselves favorites to win the AL West and pronounce them the "winners" of the 2011-'12 off-season. The buzz on Twitter the moment of the announced signing was intense and opinions varied immediately. Now that we've had time to sit and reflect on the signing, there seems to be a pretty general consensus from talent evaluators that although the Angels will be hurting in the final few years of this deal as Pujols surely will regress, the first 5-6 years of the deal will provide a much needed boost in offense that LA has lacked for several years now.

Arte Moreno passed on several big names (or was outbid) over the past couple of off-seasons. He passed on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in 2010, and last year passed up on Carl Crawford and his recently departed #1 starter in John Lackey. By doing so, he has landed the best hitter of my lifetime and arguably the best hitter of all time in Albert Pujols. At 10 years/$254MM, the Angels are betting that within the next 2-3 years they will be a major threat to win the World Series. By signing Wilson to a 6-year $77MM deal, they provided depth in their rotation that is a fearsome group. Not to mention, there are still rumors that they will look to deal defensive wiz Peter Bourjos in order to bolster their bullpen. This would allow Mike Trout to get a full season of solid defense and base-running for Mike Soscia with the potential that he advances with the bat and provides some pop.

With an excellent rotation, and a solid lineup the Angels look like they've leaped ahead of division rival Texas Rangers. Even if Texas goes out and signs Prince Fielder, I'm not sold on their rotation or their bullpen for that matter. Neftali Feliz, although talented, is an arm strength guy at this point in his career and will have some growing pains that will be tough to swallow when the club is built to win now. Texas is hoping that Feliz and Holland develop, and do so quickly otherwise they will not beat the Angels in a 5 or 7 game series.

Let me be clear here: I am not as excited about LA's lineup as others are. There are still holes and aging players  all through the lineup. Pujols will not be put in many situations to win games single-handedly as there is no real offensive threat behind him. Guys like Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and carry heavy salaries. The window is short, and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Jerry DiPoto to win and win NOW.

The Party Is In Miami

Looks like Will Smith had it right all along when he wrote the hit song some time ago “Welcome to Miami”. The Miami Marlins have made the biggest splashes of the offseason thus far by inking Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to long term deals. Reyes’ deal is a backloaded contract to ease the transition of payroll down in Miami and to allow more payroll flexibility this winter. There is no questioning Reyes’ talent, as he is one of the most productive threats in the game while on the field. That has been just it, keeping him on the field, as Reyes has been know to be a bit injury prone over the duration of his career. Most recently encountering hamstring issues that popped back up for a second time during the 2011 season.

All the drama lately has been surrounding not the Reyes signing, but the fact that Miami reportedly never consulted incumbent SS and uber-talented Hanley Ramirez about an inevitable defensive position change. It’s quite obvious that Reyes is both the current and future better defensive player, so a signing of Reyes was an automatic assumption that Ramirez was moving off of the position. There were reports last night that Ramirez was quoted by a friend that he did not want to move off the position, and may have requested a trade. By all counts this is a disaster if true. One thing is for sure: If Hanley requested a trade, the Marlins will have to make it happen. He hasn’t been exactly a model player from an effort standpoint already, never mind an unhappy player who doesn’t want to be there. Also, other GM’s will smell blood in the water and try to give as minimal as possible knowing Miami is in a tough spot since they’re trying to win NOW and will be forced to make the move rather than play out the market.

With the signing of Buehrle, the Marlins get a guy who’s going to give them some type of assurance. Josh Johnson has had health problems for the past two seasons in his shoulder, a bad spot for a pitcher to have issues. At this point, the elbow is something you see a high success rate of return following surgery. The shoulder is a completely different story, and from what I’ve read on shoulder injuries, they’re often a reflection of another injury in the elbow, and the shoulder gets injured trying to overcompensate. If Johnson comes back healthy and pitches 200-innings this year, Miami will be a lot deeper with guys like Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco pitching in the spots they should be, as 3 & 4’s rather than 2’s and 3’s. There’s also the chance that Miami goes and acquires CJ Wilson, which I would like to see. It just costs money, and Miami won’t have to dip into their talent pool to fill the spot. Even without another addition, Miami is in a much better position to succeed with Reyes and Buehrle assuming Hanley can get over himself and prove that his prime years are worth all of the hype.

Verlander wins AL MLP

Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander was named the 2011 American League MVP today and there has been much discussion surrounding the topic. Finishing in a close second was Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury who posted career highs in batting average, home runs and RBI's. A close third came Jose Bautista sporting his over 1k OPS while single-handedly keeping Toronto relevant north of the border.

Nobody is going to tell me that pitching wins did not have a part of the decision here. Zack Greinke had a season two years ago that was arguably more dominant than Verlander, and the discussion at the time was whether or not he could possibly win the Cy Young due to his low win-total. Last year you saw Felix Hernandez dominate hitters all season long, and again, the discussion was whether or not he should win the Cy (even though he inevitably did win). Now Verlander comes along and puts up very impressive numbers, but also 24 wins to boost his case and he wins the MVP after making 36 apperances.

The ironic part of this all is that it seems as though Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista took votes away from each other. There was a writer in Boston who basically said he voted for Verlander because "nobody stood out" to him. That is a ridiculous argument that makes me embarrassed to say he collects a paycheck to write his opinion. The award is given to the player who provides the most value. It seems as though there has been no real discussion of the standards of the award. But then again, some writers still vote based on pitching win totals, so I won't get too far ahead of myself.

With that said, here's my final ranking of who I would have voted for given a ballot:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Jose Bautista
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Justin Verlander
5. Miguel Cabrera

2011 World Series Wrapup, Look Ahead to Post-Pujols Cardinals

The 2011 World Series is over, but it's one I know I will certainly remember. The product on the field was excellent, with many games being close until the final innings and some going into extra's. No team had a particularly oustanding advantage on either side of the field. Although Texas' lineup is substantially better, we saw some players show their ability in St. Louis that may give fans some optimism when Albert Pujols inevitably ops for free agency.

David Freese and Allen Craig have shown a very advanced approach at the plate. They get on base, can hit for extra bases and work counts into their favor. At the beginning of 2011 it looked as though if Pujols leaves, the Cards are in a world of hurt. That doesn't seem to be the case anymore. Recently the Cards picked up Adam Wainwright's club option for 2012 and 2013 due to his progress in rehab. There was a rumor of a slim chance that Wainwright would possibly be available to pitch in the World Series, but I'm sure nobody believed that. It is a good sign that he is regaining his stuff.

Aside from the development of Freese and Craig, the Cards have two fireballers that are major league ready for 2012. It would come as no shock if Chris Carpenter regresses due to his age, but even if he is 85% the pitcher he is now, the Cardinals will have a fearsome pitching staff come second half of 2012 and beginning of 2013. Both Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez are aces in the making, with Miller ready to produce now. Martinez may need some additional development to start 2012, but the originally drafted Red Sox throws in the upper 90's, touching triple digits at times even into the later innings.

There is no discounting the major loss in production that losing the best hitter of all time will have on the Cards, but not all is lost. With some minor complimentary pieces added, they could be a force over the next 4-5 years. There is a press conference with Tony LaRussa scheduled and rumor is a possible retirement. If so, it's possible that Dave Duncan moves over to take the reigns. He has been reluctant to a management opportunity in the past, but a promotion in St. Louis would be completely different circumstances, ones which I believe Duncan would embrace.

--

For true baseball fans, the 2011 World Series offers a breath of fresh air

I have to admit that this World Series offers a bit of optimism for those fans who realize the talent disparity between the American and National Leagues. If you were to take an overall view of the talent level, the American League has been significantly more "stacked" with talent for many years now. Sometimes you'll run across the occasional joke that the NL West is the new version of the 4-A ballplayer. However, we are starting to notice a bit of a swing as NL clubs are moving towards building their teams similar to AL teams. For some time the pitching and defense ONLY model was what you most often saw in NL clubs, especially those who have limited payroll flexibility.

Now there is less and less room for error in front offices, and clubs are finding value in players that they previously overlooked. Teams are finding an even more "true" value for all the analytical metrics out there. Stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) are a way for the less statistically inclined, but hardcore fan to take a look at a players overall value. The counting stats that almost everyone can relate to are taking a backseat to true value-based stats. This is the concept behind Money Ball, but it's just becoming common knowledge and lingo now.

St. Louis Cardinals are a great example of a mid-market team capitalizing on their peak skill level. They may (and probably will) lose arguably the best hitter of all-time in the off-season to free agency, but their team is deep, and there is a wave of talent coming up that will allow them to soften the blow of losing Pujols. Other mid-market teams are losing these types of players and taking years, if not decades to recover.

That's what makes this series so interesting. You have the Rangers powerful lineup full of sluggers, and big power arms. Then you have the Adam Wainwright-less St. Louis Cardinals with an AL-style lineup with depth and a bullpen that is performing well at the right time. That's really the key to playoff baseball, getting in a rhythm when it matters most. You can say that teams play 162 games all year to lose a small series and be out of contention and denote the importance of the playoffs, or you can take it for what it is and enjoy it. I choose to enjoy it, and relish at how incredibly close in talent these two teams are.

Enjoy this World Series and think about how the game has changed. Embrace it, because in a league with no salary cap, we're finally seeing the day we never thought we would see.

Game Theory Application in Pitching Sequences

game theory

 

noun

a mathematical theory that deals with strategies for maximizinggains and minimizing losses within prescribed constraints, as therules of a card game: widely applied in the solution of variousdecision-making problems, as those of military strategy andbusiness policy.

Through my time as a professional poker player in college, I dabbled and experimented and educated myself in any way possible to gain an edge on the competition. For those of you whom are not aware, poker has adapted (especially online poker) from old school degenerate gamblers who are dumb as rocks, to extremely intelligent and talented mathematicians who are ready and willing to exploit any edge they can identify. It has adapted beyond a game of cards, into a smaller, less complex version of the stock market.

One of the topics I found extremely interesting was game theory. In essence, what game theory teaches you, or attempts to teach you is the way to "solve" a particular set of problems. In reality, that's what any game is: a set of problems that must be solved as efficiently as possible to achieve the greatest result. As in poker, there is a few players who are so talented mathematically that they have "solved" heads-up limit hold'em to create a situation where no opponent can achieve an edge more than 50%. Incredible, but even a computer cannot beat these brilliant minds when playing optimally over a big enough sample size.

Baseball analysis is advancing at light speed. The terms the average fan uses now were advanced concepts 10 years ago. The thing that GM's are using now are ways to come as close to an optimal decision as possible, all things considered of course. They may not be right every single time, but they're right more often.. and that's all you can really do in business, in the markets, and in life. Using mathematics with an ever-increasing sample size is allowing the brilliant minds to undercover things the naked eye can't and won't see. 

About a month ago I was on a plane and thought of how many similar parts there are to poker, investing and baseball. So I proposed a question that I still don't quite have the answer to: Is it possible to apply game theory to pitch selection. And if so, are pitchers and/or pitching coaches currently using these methods in pre-game preparation and analysis of opposing pitchers? If a pitcher throws a 3-2 fastball too often, he's not optimally presenting enough of a portfolio of pitches and will likely be hit hard. Almost anybody can figure this out, but is there room for improvement and who is capable of doing this?

The first guy that comes to mind is Cliff Lee. He is mechanically sound, and doesn't give away what he is throwing. He is able to throw 5-6 different pitches and command/control them all with great proficiency. He often throws a pitch that you don't expect him to because he has the ability to locate every pitch in his arsenal. But is that feel, or does he apply math to his pitching sequences? I have no clue because I am not his pitching coach, but it's interesting to think about and if this is something pitching coaches and organizations have philosophically taken on.

What do you think?

How a players character impacts their value

While watching the Carlos Zambrano show this week on Sports Center and Baseball Tonight, I began to think about players coming up who have had character issues and how they were dealt with. Jim Bowden, former GM of several MLB clubs was discussing Elijah Dukes and what his philosophy is regarding players who cause more issues than they solve. It is incredibly difficult to just boot a player off of your roster when they have a ton of natural talent. After all, your role as the GM of a club is to make it win and talent ultimately wins championships.

Bowden calmly stated how he would have handled the Zambrano situation if he were running the Cubs by stating "I would cut him". An $18 million dollar per year player being let go with nothing of value gained whatsoever.. I guess the economy isn't all that bad, especially if you're a member of the Ricketts family. Now these are the obvious situations where a player is clearly regressing in pure talent, and his attitude (previously accepted) no longer has a place on the team because his value just isn't there to justify the aggravation. But what about guys like Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rios? What about guys like Colby Rasmus and Milton Bradley? These are the types of things that managers deal with that we only see on occasion unless it translates onto the field performance.

Although all of those players have their own set of issues, it's widely known that some type of character problems have arisen but their natural talent and/or contracts keep them around. Tony LaRussa ran Rasmus out of town to get the command-less Edwin Jackson and some other scrap-heap pieces. Alex Rios was a waiver claim that the White Sox gave up nothing for, but also assumed the massive deal he had in place. He has shown flashes of not playing hard and feeling like he has somewhere better to be despite enormous talent.

Bradley was very talented. A switch-hitter who could hit for power and some average and ran pretty well in his prime. However anybody who watched Bradley can tell you how volatile his emotions were and still are. Then there's Hanley Ramirez. This guy has more talent than all of those players previously named, but shows a general lack of interest in baseball on a fairly consistent basis. There's no doubt Hall of Fame ability shooting from his veins, but it won't be reached and I'm fairly certain about that.

The bottom line is that some guys can be taught. Some just get it one day and realize that this is a short life, and an even shorter playing career. Some guys just don't ever get it, and they're often gone before we can say "man, that guy had all the ability, but...".

What This Season Means to Pujols Future

Is it me, or has some of the shine worn off of Albert Pujols? The slow start aside, he seems to be genuinely aggravated by the entire free agency process. Every interview he is asked the questions over and over again, and it seems to be wearing on him a bit. I remember spring training and the big questions were all about Pujols and what the Cardinals will do if he leaves. Then Wainwright went down, and the notion was that the Cards would just float through this year and try to rebuild when Pujols leaves. Maybe they would make a run, but the general opinion was that they didn't have a team good enough to win it all. And in all reality, that couldn't be anymore true as you watch their season. It seems to lack that one big piece to put them over the top. Not to mention Chris Carpenter is most likely leaving at the end of the year, and there is a strong possibility that Cardinals fans have seen the last of Adam Wainwright because his deal ends shortly as well.

Through 488 PA's, Pujols is posting a 3.8 batting WAR (Baseball Reference), the lowest of his career. Granted he's still got ~200AB's left before the end of the season, and he has heated up quite a bit over the past month and a half. However that is a great margin to make up, even for a player of Pujols caliber. A lot of conversation has been swirling that it's possible that the team who acquires Pujols in the inevitable mega-deal this off season may make a potentially crippling decision. Is he in decline? Is this the beginning of the end for the best player I have ever watched with my own two eyes? Even though some out there would argue that may be the case, it's highly unlikely.

Now that the same sizes have started to make sense, you can see some evidence that this is either A. fluky or B. he's hurt/distracted or maybe both. This year Puols' BABIP is .259, that's 37 points lower than his career .311 mark. His walk rate is 8.8% compared to a career 13.2% career mark. So some of the regression is due to the fact that he's getting unlucky when he makes contact and that is further illustrated when you look at his K-rate.. it's 9.0% with a career mark of 9.5%. So he's doing all the right stuff, but variance is not on his side for the time being.

Maybe for one team out there they'll get a discount if some scouts and front offices have soured on Pujols. That team may get a steal, because it's my opinion that he will return to his old self and perform at a high level for another 2-4 years. After he starts to regress with age, it won't be elite performance, but he will still be very valuable and put together quality AB's.

The Future of Assigning Player Values and Contract Size/Duration

While sitting at Panera Bread having dinner today and following a trip to take advantage of the Borders Book Stores closing and buying plentiful amounts of baseball books that will take me months to read, I had a thought. I was listening to the owner of Baseball-Reference.com on the Baseball Today podcast talk about the difference between theirs and FanGraphs.com WAR ratings, and it got me thinking about the future of player values and their reflection of contracts.

So.. will there be a day where there are no longer a need for agents? Will the ability to effectively peg a value to a certain player be so perfected that we no longer need to argue over years and dollars? What if it becomes so spot-on that there is no negotiating.. the science and math of analysis of performance, ROI, expected outcome and player value is so concrete that players are paid a certain amount as a rookie and then paid FOLLOWING their season based on WAR. The players union would hate it, but in all reality wouldn't it make sense? Jayson Werth, closer your ears my friend, because there may come a day where the industry looks back and says "what the hell were we thinking?!"

As someone who follows the evolution of how organizations are progressing, and how statistical analysis has come such a long way in such a short time.. its completely conceivable that negotiating will no longer have a place in the game and that performance and expected return will speak for itself. Players who perform are paid an equivalent share of the teams income based on their ability to drive revenue (contribute towards wins). Crazy? It may seem as though this is logical, but FAR FAR from reality, or at least modern day reality. At least then we would truly put the logic of statistical analysis to the test as brains in baseball will overtake feeling.

What do you think?

Strasburg to begin rehab assignment

The most hyped prospect that I have ever encountered since getting serious about the game in about 2008 is entering his rehab assignment in A-ball after having elbow reconstructive surgery just 11 months prior. Strasburg came out of the gates blazing once called up to the Nationals but subsequently blew out his elbow not long after leading to Tommy John surgery and a lost year. In the meantime however, Strasburg has been reported to have upped his workout regimen in an effort to increase his durability and endurance during games. Strasburg told reporters he believed the reason he was injured last year was due to fatigue later on in games that put additional stress on his elbow leading to the surgery. This would make sense in some fashion, because if you are not getting on top of the ball driving it downwards, it puts additional stress on your elbow to keep the ball from rising up and out of the strike zone.

Although logical, I don't have a short memory and a lot of scouts and talent evaluators don't either. The initial prognosis of Strasburg's mechanics are not very good dating back to his days as a minor league prospect. The stuff is unquestioned, his legs and midsection are strong and durable which help create the ability to throw at the velocity that he does throughout his outings. However when you take a look at his arm action and upper body separation throughout his delivery.. it has a tremendous resemblance to another stud turned burnout: Mark Prior. That's a scary comp, but looking at video of the two side by side, just looking at their arm action, you'll see where it comes from.

The delivery looks smooth to the casual observer, although Strasburg is much more of a max effort guy than Prior. However effort level (although relatively important) isn't as important as how someone is proficient with their key mechanical points. For a good example of this, watch Tim Lincecum. Although very high in effort, he's mechanically sound at the critical points in his delivery. If he weren't, I can say with almost certainty that he would have been hurt several times now with the amount of splitters he tosses during each game.

Much like many other baseball fans, I got chills watching his debut against Pittsburgh. Every one of his 14 strikeouts weren't just dominant, they were overpowering. It would be awesome to see the Nationals with Strasburg, Zimmerman and a core of other young arms leading an up and coming offense, but looking at the facts in front of me I don't see Strasburg staying healthy for any great length of time.

Lackey Reported Injury Is No Surprise

Yesterday Peter Gammons or ESPN reported that starting pitcher John Lackey had a tear in his pitching elbow that may require Tommy John surgery at some point this season. That would make it the second starter in Boston's rotation that has gone down to the injury in two months. Interestingly enough, both pitchers were struggling mightily, and in Lackey's case, still struggling despite still being on the active roster.

Lackey called the report "a lie" and went on to talk about how everyone in the staff has some type of "tear" in their arms. Not necessarily owning up to it, but also not firmly denying that the injury existed. A closer look at his stuff this season would lead one to believe that the account is actually correct and that Lackey is most likely hurt. This is not a numbers thing, and as much as it is painful to go by the eye test, sometimes it's good to use this to try and spot trends in the numbers and reasons why. If a pitcher is pitching poorly and not locating, that's one thing. However if a guy is just hurt and there's nothing he can do to correct the performance without getting it corrected or going on the shelf, that's something certainly worth noting.

A casual fan most likely will not notice these type of changes in mechanics, stuff and slight velocity dips. We've seen guys get by on dwindling stuff in the past, but it's more likely that the pitcher will suffer bad results because they have learned to pitch a certain style, and when that is no longer working they either adjust or fail and retire or get sent to the minors. In Lackey's case, his contract is vastly too large, even if undeserving, to be cut or sent to another club unless they somehow find Arte Moreno and get lucky with a Vernon Wells-esque type of move. Lackey has always relied on the success of his breaking pitches to pitch effectively. Another pitcher similar to Lackey is Oakland starting pitcher Brett Anderson. Although Anderson's stuff is a tick better, their pitching styles are quite similar and Anderson is on the verge of having TJ himself.

Lackey never had quite Zack Greinke 2009 stuff, but there's a clear regression in the quality of his breaking pitches. Without a fastball to get past hitters, I do not see the results changing much from here on out if he stays on the field. The best bet would be to go under the knife, take next season out of the equation, and get the sharpness of his pitches back. If he chooses to be stubborn and try to pitch through it, he may likely be one of the biggest busts in terms of performance vs. dollars paid in MLB history.

Dodgers File for Bankruptcy

     In a less than shocking move, Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy this morning to give him a chance to keep ownership control of the Dodgers. If McCourt had not filed, there was reportedly "almost no chance" he would make the payroll at the end of June, and therefor would have completely lost control of the franchise due to MLB ownership regulations. This window provided by the filing will give McCourt $150MM in assets to meet his obligations while they hammer out the lawsuit against MLB for not allowing his mega TV deal with Fox to go through.

    McCourt has been making the case that MLB is not allowing him to run his business and save his assets by blocking the TV deal that was set in place under the divorce agreement with Jamie McCourt, and really.. who can blame MLB for not allowing the deal to take place? He has done nothing but deceive the fans of the Dodgers, and put his own personal well-being ahead of the organizational health. Although that is far from uncommon in business, it's a venture that receives a massive amount of attention from media and MLB is putting an end to it right now. It's a wake up call that will surely be noted for many years when a new owner inquires about an MLB franchise.

     The disappointing part is that about 4 years ago I made the prediction that the Dodgers would either win a World Series, or at least be in serious contention right about now. They had the talent in the minors, the payroll to support the gaps in talent, and the fan base to drive a continued run of success. That has fallen by the wayside, and it doesn't appear it's going to get any better either. If you paid attention to this years stocked draft, the Dodgers are not taking advantage of whatsoever due to not being able to go an inch over slot.

I think the general consensus from the fans point of view, and possibly even the league is that they want this to just go away just as they did the steroid era. There are many issues in baseball right now, but this is at the top of the list by far. Hopefully they can just get someone in there as soon as possible, otherwise we may go ahead and forget about the Dodgers as a successful franchise until 2020.

Interleague Play Is Awesome!

I hope all of you baseball fans have been watching the interleague play over the past week or two. There has been much discussion across many different formats, and writers about interleague play and even more opinions (as usual). One thing you see being brought up a lot is the disparity between the two leagues. It is essentially a known fact at this point that the NL is the worst, and it's really not all that close, especially considering sample sizes over the past couple of decades. Of course, you're at a significant disadvantage by not having (or needing) a DH-type of quality hitter on your bench. If you had such a hitter, you would find a spot in your lineup and on the field for him, a la Lance Berkman. Interestingly enough, I don't feel that the star players in the NL are any worse than the stars in the AL, it's more of a disparity between the lower tier guys and the replacement level players in each league. That is where the true difference shines through in interleague play. But enough on that..

I absolutely love interleague play. I am constantly surrounded by Red Sox fans who are not fans of baseball, more fans of the Red Sox brand and culture associated with "their town/city". It's rather unfortunate, because I think that a lot of people would really come to enjoy the game a bit more if they watched what happened on the field and truly enjoyed the game for what it is. That is the essence of interleague play. So many more factors and possibilities come into play while two differently constructed organizations take the field. To make a comparison from my professional poker background, it's like playing at a table full of talented professional players and then switching to a table with a couple of wild players and seeing how the dynamic changes.. sort of.

What I am really saying is that interleague is for people who love baseball. If you're just a fan of one team, and the success associated with that team, what is your motivation to watch interleague games since you will not see them in the playoffs unless you and the opposing team make the World Series? It's actually part of why the trading deadline in baseball is so exciting for baseball fans. Those of you who did not realize just how good Adrian Gonzalez is before he dawned a Red Sox uniform (aside from what you have heard from media) probably had no clue how good he really is. To me, the ability to scout a player that maybe I have missed or haven't had a chance to see just yet is awesome because I rely on my personal opinions quite a bit when analyzing certain players. It keeps me intrigued, it keeps things fresh, it's what baseball is!

So I ask the readers.. what is your opinion on interleague play? Post here or on the MLB-Persspectives Facebook page and let me know what you think. You can also read my opinions and analysis on Twitter: @MLBPerspectives

Thanks for reading!

Look ahead to Monday's First Year Player Draft

     Around this time every year is where hardcore fans of teams that are performing poorly start to get excited, it's the MLB first year player draft. 2011 has been deemed the Tampa Bay Rays draft, because Tampa has a significant amount of picks this year (12 out of the top 70 or so). Of course, you only amass those type of picks from losing really good players like Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano, but sometimes you also get high picks from guys that don't necessarily match up but you'll take them anyway (Carlos Pena, Chad Qualls, Randy Choate). There is a ton of coverage all over the web from some incredible scouts and writers so I won't go too deeply into advanced scouting reports, but I'd like to share some thoughts on the way this draft could change some organizations.

     Gerrit Cole, the RHP from UCLA is looking like the consensus top talent in this years draft. He's got 4 above average pitches, with 3 of them being "plus" and his fastball is BIG and sits between 94-97 all game. Recently he was clocked at 101 in the 8th inning of his latest outing, almost cementing the top pick this year.. you would think. If it were anybody but the Pirates, I would all but be sure of them taking Cole without batting an eyelash, but they have been reported to be in on all 3 of the top talents and knowing their reluctance to take guys who will command big price tags its possible they shock us once again, a la Matt Wieters.

The thing about the MLB draft is that it's always worked in a sort of "tier'ing" system due in large part that picks are usually not a sure thing unless there's guys that are no-doubters, but those are really rare in baseball considering the failure rate between the day after the draft and the day (if) the player reaches the big leagues and fills his projection or something close to it. Aside from the multitude of picks that the Rays have, worth watching will be the Diamondbacks and the Royals. Diamondbacks with the two high picks, and on the verge of contention and young talent with a subpar rotation and a reputation of going for polished guys. The Royals are interesting because of the recent news that John Lamb is undergoing Tommy John and will likely not a factor until 2013, and Mike Montgomory pitching worse and worse it seems. There are a lot of high expectations for K.C., and they have an interesting decision to make here.

The New York Mets could have a makeover plan coming soon

The MLB draft is Monday June 6th, and many teams are drooling at the talent available this year. Many experts have been quoted as saying that this is the deepest draft in some years, offering a multitude of talent filled with raw, toolsy high school players and impact-ready college talent. As the scouting and baseball landscape is changing before our eyes, you're starting to see teams a lot more efficient with their decisions to draft players, and seeing those results within a couple of years instead of 10 years down the line. Which got me to thinking about the Mets and how the draft coming up on Monday could be the first step to a drastic turnaround for the organization.

With the level of money due to come off the books for the 2012 season, and with news breaking today that the organization will sell a minority stake of $200MM to an investment group, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic if you're a Mets fan. GM Sandy Alderson is one of the best in the game, and will also benefit from the new cash flow, as it will likely take some of the pressure off of him when deciding about which players to acquire in the draft. The Mets have always been big spenders both in free agency, and in the international scene. Once highly touted prospect Fernando Martinez never really panned out, as well as some other notably high dollar international signings. In all reality, you'll be able to tell what the Mets are planning by who they draft. If they take college level players that are closer to helping now, chances are they'll hang onto David Wright and build around him. If they go young, chances are you'll see them unload the players worth getting value for and shoot for a rebuild.

The biggest question that I have, is that if the Mets go into a full rebuilding mode how will that help the financial situation? For a team that has said they expect to lose upwards of $70MM this year, wouldn't drafting and signing talent that's able to help immediately make more sense to avoid a potential disaster? If so, Alderson has really no choice, because the ownership group signs his check as well as giving the final okay to signing players they acquire. A team trying to acquire Reyes will likely have to overpay, and given the most recent trends of the trading deadline, a deal as big as the Mets would need to let Reyes go will probably not happen. A deal for Wright would equally take a package as big, likely bigger because he is under control for a couple more years and that would offer the acquiring team financial certainty. Beltran is the guy that will go almost surely if the team paying gives them talent better than that they think they can acquire with the draft picks in the 2012 draft.

It just seems all too likely that the Mets will in fact NOT go into a rebuilding phase, and more likely that they try to improve their club for the immediate future. Only time will tell what their plans are, and if I were a Mets fan I would be watching intently this Monday.

The Tampa Bay Rays are in an interesting position

The Tampa Bay Rays are an incredibly savvy and sound organization from front to back. With Joe Maddon on the front lines managing his team to get whatever edge he can on the competition, to Andrew Friedman in the front office squeezing out any type of value he can find across the nation (and the world). It's all very impressive work, and given their fiscal situation, you would be hard pressed to find a business model that has survived on such limited resources but has produced for such an extended time period. With that said, I have come to some conclusions based on scouting their performances across their 25-man roster, and what they have available in the minors that can help them out this year, if they were to require such assistance.

The rotation is very solid. With David Price flashing plus stuff every night out, he truely anchors a staff that is about as balanced as you will find. Aside from Price, Jeremy Hellickson has stepped in as the #2 starter (at least in terms of performance periferals). I am a very big fan of Hellickson's stuff and makeup. The whole package looks and feels to be a guy that will be able to compete in the challenging AL East for many years to come. Following Price and Hellickson in the rotation are a recently resurgent James Shields, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann. None of them really play out to bottom of the rotation type of guys, there's more likely a bunch of 3's and 4's who can play a bit "up" from that when they're puting all the pieces together.

Normally one would be excited, and there's plenty of reason to be if you're staring at their rotation on a nightly basis. Price is down right dominating when he's on, Hellickson pitches like a trained assassin, Shields is very good when he locates the 4-seamer to go with his devastating change, Davis is a pure power guy who can look dominating and then lost and Niemann has an all-around arsenal and hits his spots well. After the Matt Garza trade, they only really have one guy left in their rotation who is going to make a significant amount of money, being Shields. In 2011 he is set to make $4.25MM. That is the last guaranteed year of his 4-year $11.25MM deal signed in August of 2000. The team is still under control of Shields for years 2012-14 with team options. He is set to make $7MM in 2012, otherwise the team can buy out for $2MM, or of course they could trade him while he is pitching well and is still cost-effective for some teams who may be looking to upgrade at starting pitching. He's only 29 years old, so there's plenty left in the tank and other teams may feel that they could possibly sign him to a new deal if they acquired him via trade. He is set to make $12MM in 2014 at age 32 but could conceivably benefit from a trade to any other division than the AL East.

The front office of the Rays are in a position to trade Shields now, and it would make all the sense in the world. He has been basically a replacement level pitcher (in terms of WAR stats over the past 4 seasons) through his career. Granted, he will likely boost his value by moving to a different division. I have been harping for a while now that the Dodgers could possibly come along with James Loney as an option, but Loney's performance has declined over the past years when it should be increasing, so a potential fit is most likely no longer there. Time will tell, and I suspect the trade will happen at the All-Star break or it won't happen at all especially with Shields pitching well.

Josh Beckett's Performance on Sunday vs. Yankees

     Last night was like watching a highlight reel from 1999 when Josh Beckett was firing strikes and mowing down opposing hitters in a Marlins uniform. Rarely did any pitch hang, or stay straight. Hitters were either out on their front foot, or taking emergency hacks.. sometimes looking as though they would fall flat on their face when he broke off his 12-6 curveball. It was a clinic put on by a guy that in the past two years hasn't shown any life to his pitches and basically looked like he was at a career crossroads.

      These are the types of things that drive scouts crazy, because it cannot be explained from any baseball metric, and to be honest there weren't a whole lot of people out there that would have predicted this outcome. In fact Beckett's stuff was so good, it actually looked improved upon compared to when he originally signed with the Red Sox. His straight change, although lacking in velocity differential, seems to have a significant amount more depth and deception than in the past. It acts almost as a really hard (less movement) splitter. His new cutter was not his biggest weakness, in fact it made hitters look silly and at times had plus movement acting almost like a slider. The curve, which had diminished in both depth and location was on the black and buckling knees the entire night. The fastball was Cliff Lee-esque and barely ever left the paint leaving hitters only capable to foul it off in the hopes that they find a ball to hit on the next pitch. The only thing was that the next pitch was on the black also and getting by hitters, or it was an offspeed pitch that made them look silly.

     I made a somewhat sarcastic comment to a friend watching the game with me "watch, he'll be on the DL by the end of this week" because I really cannot understand how this drastic of a change in EVERY pitch can happen overnight. The team he faced has an excellent blend of hitters who are very smart and don't give anything away. Beckett made them look like they were the San Diego Padres last night, and if this is a sign of CONSISTENT things to come, the Red Sox just jumped back into favorites to win the division and the World Series.

      With all of this said however, I hate to be a downer and give my honest opinion that this will not last. In fact, I would hesitate to suggest it will last into next start. This is the type of puzzling thing that happens when a player enters a contract year and miraculously hits .300 and 30HR after a career stat line of .265 with 10 HR. Just how these athletes are able to dial up natural ability is something I don't think I will ever be able to understand. Only time will tell if this is a sign that things have turned around for Beckett. Around Boston there is a lot being talked about the difference in his performance when Jason Varitek catches vs. any other backstop. Granted, he may be somewhat more effective with a more knowledgeable counterpart behind the plate, but Varitek isn't giving Beckett a new shoulder or elbow, he's just puting fingers down and puting a glove somewhere.

In the end, this is why we watch the games and follow through the long 162 game grind that is the baseball season. This is what makes it interesting.

Opening Day and Phillies lineup without Chase Utley

   Opening day is fast approaching, as the teams buses have left their spring training facilities and are heading to their home parks to get ready for the season opener. As a player, you have high hopes for what you can achieve both as a team and as an individual. This is the time of year where players sit back and try to imagine where there careers are headed, and what they can do to establish themselves as one of the games best. No matter your age or standing in the league, your main focus right now is to either stay healthy or if you're already injured, get healthy.

The Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies debate as to whom is the best team in baseball took a turn in the Red Sox favor as this week we have learned that Chase Utley's knee is not looking very promising. At this point the report is that he and the team are doing everything they can in order to avoid surgery. If his injury does not start to look better and the discomfort does not go away, the Phils may be without their All-Star second basemen for quite a while. This would put trmendous pressure on Ryan Howard to carry the load that will be left by some combination of Wilson Valdez and newly acquired Luis Castillo. Neither guy can really offer much from an offensive standpoint, especially Castillo who was let go by the Mets while they still owe him $9MM for the 2011 season. I am very interested in seeing what lineup they will go with, but I will provide my own opinion on what I would do:
1. SS Rollins - S
2. LF Ibanez - L
3. 3B Polanco - R
4. 1B Howard - L
5. CF Victorino - S
6. RF Francisco - R
7. C Ruiz -R
8. 2B (Valdez/Castillo) - S
9. Pitcher

This lineup gives the top 3 guys with the higher OBP a chance to get on base in front of Howard. It also avoids the late-inning matchup problems that they had with lefties Utley, Howard, Ibanez all bunched up. At this point Jimmy Rollins hasn't shown power for a couple of years, so use what speed he has left in his legs and hope for a bounce back season. If you think it should look different, comment and let me know what you think, and why!

What could have been...

I saw an article online that Buster Olney of ESPN had provided about a once bright shining star in the Toronto Blue Jays system named Dustin McGowan. Most of you probably aren't familiar with the name, but if you were a Toronto fan about 5 years ago, I can guarantee that you would recognize it.

The story can be found here: http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2011/03/13/17599806.html

As far as pitching prospects go, McGowan was it. He is tall, athletic and very competitive. Oh and I almost forgot, he had some of the best stuff I have seen in a long long while. His fastball was in the mid to upper 90's with good movement and improving location. He had a changeup that fell off the table and had a significant gap of MPH between his fastball. But his best pitch was his curve, which ranks in the 75 range on the 20-80 scale and that may be generous. It played better than most because of the velocity and arm angle. I suggest you go and look up some video of him pitching to get an idea of just how talented this kid was. I can remember the day that McGowan, AJ Burnett and Roy Halladay were on the same staff and a lot of teams must have been wondering how they had a chance to win when they were facing the 3 guys with arguably the best arms in the AL East.

It's guys like McGowan that you see come more often than the Pedro Martinez's of the world that deft all logic. Even McGowan had a big frame and the body type that you would project as staying relatively healthy. Some people are just not meant to be, and it's a shame because I would have loved to see him healthy and flashing his plus stuff every 5 days.

If you can't beat 'em.. join 'em - What I would do if I were the Cardinals GM

     About 48 hours ago the St. Louis Cardinals got some bad news. They learned that Adam Wainwright, their 20 game winner and runner up to Roy Halladay in the Cy Young voting, had significant pain in this throwing elbow. Not good. Fast foward to 24 hours ago, and Wainwright and the medical staff deemed that he go under season ending reconstructive surgery. This is about as bad as it gets for a team that looked like it was going for it this year and had a legitimate shot to possibly win a World Series.

     48 hours has gone by, and in that time I did some thinking as to what I would do if I were in charge of the baseball operations over in St. Louis. One thing that I can be certain of is that they are at the very definition of a cross roads. The situation they are in right now reminds me of where Milwaukee was when they traded for CC Sabathia and went for it all while they had a healthy (at the time) Ben Sheets and could contend for a title with a deadly 1 and 2 atop the rotation. Muck like Milwaukee, they face losing a very talented offensive player at first.

     The difference between the two however is that St. Louis has not totally gutted their farm system in the process. They have made some cost efficient moves that have made them competitive, but not desperate. By adding Lance Berkman, they have some protection for Matt Holliday and allow Colby Rasmus to hide in that threatening middle of the order. With the addition of a healthy David Freese, this team has plenty of offensive production to support what used to be a solid rotation. Now they lose Wainwright for 12-18 months assuming everything goes smoothely, and they face losing both Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols to free agency in the off season. I think it's all but assumed that Carpenter will be signing elsewhere in the winter, and the Pujols situation has gone from bad to ugly. If the two of those players leave, it puts the Cardinals in a weird position because their offense will be average, and their pitching will lack both depth and quality. Jaime Garcia was good last year, but until he shows he can stay healthy and do it consistently, he's not considered more than a number three starter or an average number two.

     So here's an option that the Cardinals must, and most likely are considering: rebuild. This would mean trading Chris Carpenter and getting some value for him while he's still healthy and has a lot of potential return. If you do the deal now, you would get more in return because the team acquiring him would have a full season rather than less than half if it were at the trading deadline. If you move Matt Holliday also, you are freeing up a ton of money, and can start building around Colby Rasmus for the 2013 season when Wainwright returns from Tommy John. Let's face it, the Cardinals cannot make up for the (just over) 6 wins a game that Wainwright gives them according to WAR projections from FanGraphs. They have to do what's right for the organization and try to recoup some value while they still can.

The Wells, Rivera, Napoli deal and other notes

Alex Anthopoulos did what a lot of GM's and insiders didn't think was possible: Unload the massive Vernon Wells contract. Not only did he do so, he got two MLB-level talents in return. Toronto will save a ton of money in this deal, and it also allows them to balance their lineup better vs. tough lefties. Adam Lind has struggled against southpaws, and so has Travis Snider. This also buys them insurance in the case that JP Arencibia fails to live up to the hype over the course of a full big league season. Napoli has never been a great catcher, but he's serviceable and can play 1B and DH also. Rivera is nothing special, but he's serviceable and will benefit from being in a deeper lineup in Toronto.

As far as Wells, he will be an improvement over Rivera on both sides of the field. He had a resurgence in his numbers last year, but before that there were people talking about how he seems to throw away AB's and doesn't play his hardest all the time. Since that surfaced, Wells has shown an improvement and his power numbers returned. He will definitely benefit from being on a competitive team, and will fit nicely into the Anaheim lineup. However, with this all said, I do not feel that his overall value adds up to the cost associated. At his age, and the fact that he's already in the decline phase, Anaheim should have went and pushed harder to sign Carl Crawford. For a team that has been reported to be a little gun-shy for big contracts, this is a puzzling move and simply cannot come close to holding its value now and in the future. It's not even worth mentioning that Wells has an opt out clause after this season because there is no way he will ever see a contract like that ever again. Just when you give baseball ops people some credit for using their brains, they go and make moves like this that seem so blatantly one sided. It will be interesting to see what direction Toronto goes in, as Alex Anthopoulos has done a terrific job setting their club up from a talent and financial standpoint.


This comes a little late, but I am proud of Brian Cashman for coming forward and clearing his stance on the commitment to Rafael Soriano. I had actually discussed the fact that I thought he should do exactly that with a friend just two days before he stepped up and did so. It makes him look better, but in the end, a lot of GM's would give their first born son to have the advantages that come with being the Yankees GM.

Soriano gets 3yr/$35MM from Yankees

     In a day where relievers, and pitchers in general are throwing harder than ever with an even lower lifespan, the Yankees went out and spent big dollars on Rafael Soriano early this morning. The deal is worth a reported 3 years at $35MM in total contract value (plus some incentives I am sure). Immediately there was a bit of harsh reaction over the deal, and understandably so. Relievers don't live up to the multiple year deals that they frequently get when teams become desperate and/or victims of the current market. The Yankees front office can blame Detroit for the commitment they had to make to land Soriano. And although there is no chance he lives up to the full value of the contract, he acquisition has some implications that have become more and more obvious to even casual fans. The loss of a first round pick in the deepest draft in ages is a sign that the Yankees have no regard for getting the player they want.

     Although the deal is a bad one, it's not quite as bad as other writers have made it out to be. The easiest comparison I can make is Jonathan Papelbon. He is set to hit he open market next off season, and chances are that he will have a large check coming his way from some club. The Soriano deal will probably be the benchmark, but chances are his agent will push for more due to a healthy and successful track record. However, if you could pick between the two of them, who would you choose? I would pick Soriano. He has better stuff, he's shown he can transition from one league to another and have success in both. When he is healthy, he is flat-out dominant. Papelbon has shown a regression over the past two seasons in my opinino and scouting. His secondary stuff has never been above average, even below average. None of them lack depth or have particularly late movement. So in reality, if Soriano stays relatively healthy we may look back at the deal and think that the Yankees got a decent deal in the end. The easiest way of puting it is this: For the amount of dollars/years you are spending on depth guys and guys below the quality of Soriano, you must ask yourself (if you have the resources) how hard it is to get impact guys at the end of the bullpen. Soriano could easily close for NYY, and is probably an upgrade on 90% of closers presently in the position on other teams. Regardless of his title, he will provide solid innings and has shutdown stuff. The Yankees just told teams in the AL East that they have 7 innings to beat them.

Pavano back to the Twins; CarGo gets big extension; Note on Joakim Soria

Just before the weekend it became official that Carl Pavano was re-joining the Twins, in what looks to be a very competitive divsion this year. All of the teams in the central have improved, while the Twins are hopeful that Justin Morneau can return to his all-star caliber coming off of a concussion that took a serious toll on him for the entire second half of the 2010 season. Without Morneau, the Twins all but have no chance in the central this year. There is no way an opposing manager would let Joe Mauer beat them when the game is on the line, and who could blame them?

For the second time in the same offseason, the Colorado Rockies made a huge extension (and leap of faith) to 5-tool player Carlos Gonzalez for 7years and $80MM. This now locks up CarGo through arbitration and a couple of years afterwards. I think it's a great deal that reminds me of the deal Tampa Bay made with Evan Longoria. Now everyone who looks at that deal thinks Longoria was crazy, but Tampa saw a chance to lock up a player that is key to the success of their ballclub and they did it. Same with Gonzalez, because if 2010 isn't a fluke, they have possibly the best all-around player in the game locked up for cheap for the next 7 years. Even if he performs below 2010 (which he likely will), he will still be a great player to have because he does so many things on the field and he absolutely LOVES to hit in Coors Field. If Colorado is right, they will look like geniuses. If they are wrong, they will look like JP Ricardi did when he gave Alex Rios the mega-deal that made him borderline un-moveable. But even Rios had things to offer when he wasn't hitting, and eventually turned that around too.

I found a quote today on Buster Olney's blog about the position the Royals are in with Joakim Soria:

"3. Bill Madden doesn't get the Royals' stance on refusing to trade Joakim Soria. I'd respectfully disagree: Soria's contract is so extraordinary for the team that the value of his deal makes it almost impossible for Kansas City to get equal value."

I completely disagree with Buster on many levels. First of all Soria is cheap, but to Kansas City, that money is better off investing in young position players who will set you up for years of production. Rarely do closers hold their value. Also, closers do not draw fans into the ballpark. I wouldn't pay $100 to watch a team of prospects never get a lead enough times to watch Soria pitch. The fact that his contract is so attainable is even more valuable due to the fact that many mid to low market teams could get involved and not have to move money to take him on, just talent. When they traded Greinke (a guy that draws fans) and now refuse to trade Soria (a guy who throws a couple innings a week) it's really sending mixed signals to the fans in KC. However, I doubt they are thinking along the same lines as everyone in the media. They are smart baseball minds, and realize all of these things also. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tampa Bay went out and got him with some of the pieces they picked up in the Matt Garza trade.

Texas to acquire Beltre, DH Young

The baseball front offices must have been skeptical of Adrian Beltre, and rightly so. His career has been like many others to come down the baseball chain. One of great promise, incredible athletic ability, but an annoying inability to perform consistently. It is quite possible that playing in Safeco field had a great impact on his power numbers while playing in Seattle, and it's also possible that he was likely injured and played through it. But, one cannot bring up Adrian Beltre and think "yikes" when they look at his career track record compared to his contract years. The incredible thing that I always bring up when the subject of "contract year" comes up, is that it is mind boggling that these athletes are so talented that they can just simply turn it up a notch on their performance when a pay raise is in line. We see it time and time again, and you never hear about the guys who play hard every day and produce regardless of their contract.

Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Advanced stats will tell you, and your eyes will too. For a guy of his size, he seems to always have his body in the right place at the right time to make the play, and make it look effortless. His defensive metrics have never been in question to anybody. His play at the plate during his contract year with the Dodgers and the Red Sox were awe inspiring MVP-caliber. Last year in Boston, Beltre showed that he's not just a power hitter when he's on.. but he can also hit for a high average and get on base. When he hits the ball, he hits it really hard. One of the most talked about things is when he drops to his knees while hitting a moon shot over the green monster. The way he is able to do things like that and still generate solid contract and leave his bat in the zone for so long is impressive. He isn't your 3-hole hitter, but he is a great 4 or 5 hitting behind a lefty, ala Josh Hamilton. With the kind of skillset that Beltre has, you can't blame a team like Texas locking him down and making room for him on the roster. The deal is a big long for a player at his age, but chances are he will hold his value relatively deep into the contract assuming he stays healthy.

The one thing that bothers me about the deal is the position that Michael Young is currently in. I am of a strong opinion that using him at DH is not using him at peak value. Although he is no longer a plus defender, he is capable and can play many positions. I do not like the idea of using him as a super-utility, because again, this means that an every day player is sitting or DH'ing to make room. There is no doubt that Vlad is getting old and losing bat speed, but I would rather trade Young now to a team that needs a player who can impact their lineup and sign Vlad on the cheap. They would not be losing a draft pick, and what they get in return for Young could set them up to acquire a starter, which they desperately need. I'm not totally sold on Neftali Feliz transitioning into the rotation and being dominant. He has very high expectations (and rightly so), but it was out of the bullpen where hitters aren't going to see you more than once.

I have a hunch that Carl Pavano will be heading to the Yankees again. It makes too much sense, for both parties. I also hope that Joe Girardi opens his eyes and sticks Robinson Cano into the 3-hole, followed by A-Rod and then Teixeira. This is Robinson Cano's team now that Jeter and A-Rod are showing signs of age.