The most recent news that I saw this morning when I got in my office was that Colorado has extended an already lengthy contract to their uber-talented SS Troy Tulowitzki. There is no denying his talent, but locking ANYBODY up for ten years in a game where one wrong pivot, or one high and tight fastball can end a players career seems a little over the top. The interesting part is that it's not like Tulo is an ironman either, he has shown a proponence injuries over the course of his career. If he does stay relatively healthy, and by that I mean avoid any major injuries, it should be a great deal for Colorado, because guys with his talent and at the position he plays do not come around often. I have always been a fan of Tulo, mostly because he plays the game so hard, and you can tell he loves what he does. Maybe Hanley Ramirez can learn from this, but I doubt it.
I won't sugar coat it, the Dodgers messed up bigtime giving Juan Uribe a 3-year $21MM deal. Just another example (see Aubrey Huff) of a guy capitalizing on the spotlight of September and October. He posted several career high's, and his OBP is slightly above his batting average. I believe this is a gross way to overpay for a player who doesn't really offer a team any type of significant dynamic other than his ability to play multiple positions. The only real way Uribe could come close to keeping his value is if he plays SS, but with Furcal there for at least 2011, Uribe will most likely be used at 3B to platoon with the aggressively aging Casey Blake. That trade is looking better and better for Cleveland.
I see where the Florida Marlins are coming in signing Javier Vazquez to a 1-year $7MM deal with a full no-trade clause. In essence, the trade clause is meaningless because he is coming off of a bad year and if he were to get off to a bad start, his value would be zero. If he gets off to a good start, it's unlikely that Florida would trade him anyways due to the weakened lineup with the loss of Dan Uggla. Not only that, but if Vazquez has a bounceback year, he may choose to re-up with Florida at the end of the year, or they can let him walk and take the draft picks. With that said, I have a completely different perspective on the signing. My scouting report on Vazquez is this: it caught up. All those innings have taken a toll on his shoulder and I do not see him making large strides this year or any time in the future. The drop in veloctiy is one thing (not getting above 88MPH in most games last year), but his overall stuff looks flat. It was my impression that his arm was actually injured, but now that he has gone through a physical with Florida, it leads me to believe that this just may be the beginning of the end of Javier Vazquez as an effective MLB pitcher.
Another move by the Rockies was to re-acquire LHP Jorge De La Rosa. A 3-yr deal is about right, and this was a clear case of the imapact that his Type-A designation had.. which totally benefits the Rockies because their pitching staff is in rough shape. I am interested to see if they go after Brandon Webb, because any person with common sense can see how effective he would be in that stadium if he can regain his stuff. I have heard that it's not going all that well however. .
One last thing:
The Twins won the bidding rights to Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who they apparently want to play 2B to fill the void that Orlando Hudson is leaving via free agency. I watched some video on Nishioka, and he has a good stroke. He probably will have an issue with offspeed pitches down and away, as MLB pitchers have much better command and stuff. He stays far back on the ball and seems to explode out of his batting motion, so that will be interesting to watch.
Winter meetings are this week.. I expect to hear about a couple big trades maybe in the works. Keeping my eyes peeled!
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
The Rays and Marlins Have Work To Do
Just heard word that Dan Uggla turned down a pretty large contract offer from Florida. I find it pretty amazing that he is pushing it this far, and by all accounts has shot the trade value unless another team picks him up and is ready to dish out big dollars. He has some serious holes in his swing, and he has made some adjustments to fix a few of them.. but he is by no means a guy that you build your ballclub around, especially at his age. I'm pretty interested in watching what happens here. Florida has been opening themselves up to spending a few more dollars on established players, but this might be a time where their frugalness will pay off.
The Rays have a lot of work to do if they want to contend. If not, they can pack it in this year and try to play for next year. Either way, with a big pay cut coming (25%), and the loss of key players, they have a ton of work to do. Not only that but they have to be very creative in achieving the goals. Finding young talent on the cheap is not easy to do, and when you do find it, it costs a lot. Just how many of their starters are they willing to part with? Is now the time to move BJ Upton, or should the Rays hold onto him and hope he gets his act together? I would move him if it were me. Considering his production, you're better off having one of their platoon players (Rodriguez, Joyce, Brignac) fill the void if you want pitching back instead. It's possible that the Diamondbacks could come into the fold and have both Upton's playing in the outfield.
The Rays have a lot of work to do if they want to contend. If not, they can pack it in this year and try to play for next year. Either way, with a big pay cut coming (25%), and the loss of key players, they have a ton of work to do. Not only that but they have to be very creative in achieving the goals. Finding young talent on the cheap is not easy to do, and when you do find it, it costs a lot. Just how many of their starters are they willing to part with? Is now the time to move BJ Upton, or should the Rays hold onto him and hope he gets his act together? I would move him if it were me. Considering his production, you're better off having one of their platoon players (Rodriguez, Joyce, Brignac) fill the void if you want pitching back instead. It's possible that the Diamondbacks could come into the fold and have both Upton's playing in the outfield.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Hot Stove Officially Begins!
It's that time of year again. I find myself frequently clicking the refresh button on my baseball news sites. However, it's probably not necessary with twitter and other social media outlets, but it makes me feel a little oldschool so I will do it the old fashioned way.
There already seems to be a nationwide feeling of "what will happen after Cliff Lee signs with the yankees." If that is true, and the Yankees are the team to land Lee, I would watch Texas closely. They are in desperate need of an ace. This is how their rotation would shape up without Lee if the season were to start today. Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland and with the 5 spot taken up by a prospect. In all reality, if you're not getting Cliff Lee this offseason you're getting a complimentary piece. If you want impact from free agency this year it will have to be in the bullpen or in the outfield.
You can bet that if Lee signs in New York, that the rumor mill will start heating up in Kansas City. Texas would have to blow KC away with talent, and I'm not sure that they have the pieces to do so after the deal to bring Lee. Their minor system is deep, but not limitless.
Nobody should sleep on Anaheim. They are getting Kendry Morales back, they have major league depth at the catcher position that could easily be moved, and they have Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana at the top of the rotation. Carl Crawford is the perfect compliment to their team, and he is a dream player for Mike Soscia. If Arte Moreno is willing to put up the dollars to sign him, I think it's all but a lock that Crawford is an Angel in 2011.
This is totally out of my own speculation, but I could see Anaheim and the Dodgers getting together to make a deal this offseason. They are both West Coast, the Dodgers need a catcher and offense that Russell Martin could not provide, and Anaheim may look into taking a bat in return. Could possibly James Loney be involved?
To touch on the Red Sox a little more in depth:
I don't want to go off on a tangent here, but there is a growing trend in the Red Sox front office that does not bode well for the future of the organization. It seems as though Theo Epstein has a problem resisting temptation when a player is able to be acquired, regardless of the potential implications. Giving Ortiz the option at $12.5MM is a mistake in several different ways.
One being, he will most likely under perform the value of the contact. It's nice to have a player on a short deal, but $12.5 is grossly overpaying a player whom ultimately will probably not be back next season. He only appeals to a small group of teams, therefore if the Red Sox really wanted to keep him for a short term deal they could have let him go and then re-negotiated when he comes back crying.
Not only that, but the Red Sox are becoming an old team. Signs are pointing towards them being interested in Jason Werth. This would be a huge mistake in my opinion. I do not think that he would have success in the AL East. He strikes out a lot, and like Keith Law pointed out in his free agency breakdown, Werth has trouble already getting his hands through on pitches away. With his long lanky body, that will only become more difficult as he loses bat speed.
Re-signing Josh Beckett to the deal that the Red Sox did was a mistake, and I have been saying it since before they even started discussions with him. He has a ton of miles on his arm, and a delivery that doesn't finish cleanly. This year he started to implement a cutter into his arsenal, but he never located it well enough, or got late enough break from the pitch to make it effective. The only alternative he has is to work on his change up, and start to create a bigger differential between his fastball. Even if he accomplishes this, I can foresee some arm trouble starting to rear its ugly head. Bottom line is that this contract extension will come back to haunt the front office of the Red Sox for a long time to come.
There already seems to be a nationwide feeling of "what will happen after Cliff Lee signs with the yankees." If that is true, and the Yankees are the team to land Lee, I would watch Texas closely. They are in desperate need of an ace. This is how their rotation would shape up without Lee if the season were to start today. Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland and with the 5 spot taken up by a prospect. In all reality, if you're not getting Cliff Lee this offseason you're getting a complimentary piece. If you want impact from free agency this year it will have to be in the bullpen or in the outfield.
You can bet that if Lee signs in New York, that the rumor mill will start heating up in Kansas City. Texas would have to blow KC away with talent, and I'm not sure that they have the pieces to do so after the deal to bring Lee. Their minor system is deep, but not limitless.
Nobody should sleep on Anaheim. They are getting Kendry Morales back, they have major league depth at the catcher position that could easily be moved, and they have Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana at the top of the rotation. Carl Crawford is the perfect compliment to their team, and he is a dream player for Mike Soscia. If Arte Moreno is willing to put up the dollars to sign him, I think it's all but a lock that Crawford is an Angel in 2011.
This is totally out of my own speculation, but I could see Anaheim and the Dodgers getting together to make a deal this offseason. They are both West Coast, the Dodgers need a catcher and offense that Russell Martin could not provide, and Anaheim may look into taking a bat in return. Could possibly James Loney be involved?
To touch on the Red Sox a little more in depth:
I don't want to go off on a tangent here, but there is a growing trend in the Red Sox front office that does not bode well for the future of the organization. It seems as though Theo Epstein has a problem resisting temptation when a player is able to be acquired, regardless of the potential implications. Giving Ortiz the option at $12.5MM is a mistake in several different ways.
One being, he will most likely under perform the value of the contact. It's nice to have a player on a short deal, but $12.5 is grossly overpaying a player whom ultimately will probably not be back next season. He only appeals to a small group of teams, therefore if the Red Sox really wanted to keep him for a short term deal they could have let him go and then re-negotiated when he comes back crying.
Not only that, but the Red Sox are becoming an old team. Signs are pointing towards them being interested in Jason Werth. This would be a huge mistake in my opinion. I do not think that he would have success in the AL East. He strikes out a lot, and like Keith Law pointed out in his free agency breakdown, Werth has trouble already getting his hands through on pitches away. With his long lanky body, that will only become more difficult as he loses bat speed.
Re-signing Josh Beckett to the deal that the Red Sox did was a mistake, and I have been saying it since before they even started discussions with him. He has a ton of miles on his arm, and a delivery that doesn't finish cleanly. This year he started to implement a cutter into his arsenal, but he never located it well enough, or got late enough break from the pitch to make it effective. The only alternative he has is to work on his change up, and start to create a bigger differential between his fastball. Even if he accomplishes this, I can foresee some arm trouble starting to rear its ugly head. Bottom line is that this contract extension will come back to haunt the front office of the Red Sox for a long time to come.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
World Series wrap and David Ortiz
Congratulations to the SF Giants for doing something not many thought they could at the beginning of the year. They put together a team that got it done when it counted. They were definitely not the most talented, but timely hits to go along with good pitching can get it done in the playoffs. This was definitely the year of the pitcher.................and better testing. Tim Lincecum was as dominant as I have ever seen him in game 6. Cliff Lee showed (yet again) what happens to guys with stuff similar to his: When they are not on.. they get hit hard.
Rant of the day:
For the love of god, will somebody please pleas PLEASE! tell the Fox analysists to get this right: Tim Lincecum throws a split finger fastball.... not a changeup. His fingers may be marginally positioned diffferently than a straight splitter, but it still is a splitter. A two seam fastball and a circle change are not the same thing, even though they have the same type of action, and neither is a splitter and a straight change. The most amazing part is that they show slow motion close-ups of Lincecum throwing the pitch with a splitter grip, and they still go on and on about how it's the best change in the game. You have a whole offseason to figure this out, hopefully they get it right between now and spring training!!!
David Ortiz is having his option picked up by the Boston Red Sox, and what is largely becoming the most obvious example of terrible MLB-level talent scouting. Yesterday the guys on the big show at WEEI were laughing about how bad JP Riccardi was while he was in Toronto. While that may be true, he is no way worse than Theo Epstein. Difference being is that Theo can cover up his mistakes and get away with them. Riccardi's decisions were mostly "bad" because the players refused to play to their ability. Theo, however, has been compacting bad decision after bad decision by signing players who have already hit their peak value.
I plan on going into more depth about this subject in my next post. But my general opinion is that he is not helping the team, but merely doing a good enough job to not get fired... for now. By the way Red Sox fans, your farm system isn't even close to what most of you think it is.
Rant of the day:
For the love of god, will somebody please pleas PLEASE! tell the Fox analysists to get this right: Tim Lincecum throws a split finger fastball.... not a changeup. His fingers may be marginally positioned diffferently than a straight splitter, but it still is a splitter. A two seam fastball and a circle change are not the same thing, even though they have the same type of action, and neither is a splitter and a straight change. The most amazing part is that they show slow motion close-ups of Lincecum throwing the pitch with a splitter grip, and they still go on and on about how it's the best change in the game. You have a whole offseason to figure this out, hopefully they get it right between now and spring training!!!
David Ortiz is having his option picked up by the Boston Red Sox, and what is largely becoming the most obvious example of terrible MLB-level talent scouting. Yesterday the guys on the big show at WEEI were laughing about how bad JP Riccardi was while he was in Toronto. While that may be true, he is no way worse than Theo Epstein. Difference being is that Theo can cover up his mistakes and get away with them. Riccardi's decisions were mostly "bad" because the players refused to play to their ability. Theo, however, has been compacting bad decision after bad decision by signing players who have already hit their peak value.
I plan on going into more depth about this subject in my next post. But my general opinion is that he is not helping the team, but merely doing a good enough job to not get fired... for now. By the way Red Sox fans, your farm system isn't even close to what most of you think it is.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Bumgarner dominant in Game 4 win; Rangers on their heels
I was totally taken back by how dominant Madison Bumgarner was against the potent Rangers offense. When I scouted Bumgarner when he was called up, his stuff was almost identical to how it is now, and I was not impressed. He didn't have particularly good depth on any of his offspeed stuff, and his fastball seemed to be average. It simply has to be the angle that the baseball comes out of his hand, because he was baffling the Texas lineup all night. It has been a long time since I have seen a hitter look as bad as Vlad did against Bumgarner, and it wasn't just once, or twice.
I did notice one thing however. Bumgarner is tipping his pitches. This is the second big league starter this year that I have spotted doing something very obvious in his delivery that nobody else but myself has picked up on. Clay Buccholz of the Boston Red Sox tips his pitches by the degree at which his left leg bends. He has a sharper angle at the apex when he is throwing something hard (4-seamer, slider) and it is less of a hard angle when he throws a curve and changeup.
Last night, Bumgarner was tipping his pitches with his right foot. When he is throwing hard, the foot opens earlier in his delivery to create the harder force going foward. When he is throwing something offspeed, his foot stays closed until the last second.
Take a look for yourself and watch some game video of both pitchers and you will see exactly what I mean.
Tonight is the holy grail of pitching matchups. Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee.
I have been off in most of my predictions in this years world series, but I think it's just because the Texas pitching staff is tired. Don't forget, CJ Wilson is a MLB veteran, but as a setup guy. He is way ahead of his innings total and is most likely losing strength. Tommy Hunter is just who he is, an average pitcher who has trouble getting through the lineup after a few looks. He just doesn't have the stuff to get through a good lineup the 3rd time through. Colby Lewis is a smart pitcher, who has great poise. He cannot get it done all by himself though.
Game 5 Prediction:
Texas wins 6-4
Lincecum 6IP 6h 3ER
Lee 7IP 7h 2ER
Game 7 here we come!
I did notice one thing however. Bumgarner is tipping his pitches. This is the second big league starter this year that I have spotted doing something very obvious in his delivery that nobody else but myself has picked up on. Clay Buccholz of the Boston Red Sox tips his pitches by the degree at which his left leg bends. He has a sharper angle at the apex when he is throwing something hard (4-seamer, slider) and it is less of a hard angle when he throws a curve and changeup.
Last night, Bumgarner was tipping his pitches with his right foot. When he is throwing hard, the foot opens earlier in his delivery to create the harder force going foward. When he is throwing something offspeed, his foot stays closed until the last second.
Take a look for yourself and watch some game video of both pitchers and you will see exactly what I mean.
Tonight is the holy grail of pitching matchups. Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee.
I have been off in most of my predictions in this years world series, but I think it's just because the Texas pitching staff is tired. Don't forget, CJ Wilson is a MLB veteran, but as a setup guy. He is way ahead of his innings total and is most likely losing strength. Tommy Hunter is just who he is, an average pitcher who has trouble getting through the lineup after a few looks. He just doesn't have the stuff to get through a good lineup the 3rd time through. Colby Lewis is a smart pitcher, who has great poise. He cannot get it done all by himself though.
Game 5 Prediction:
Texas wins 6-4
Lincecum 6IP 6h 3ER
Lee 7IP 7h 2ER
Game 7 here we come!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)