Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Hot Stove Officially Begins!

          It's that time of year again. I find myself frequently clicking the refresh button on my baseball news sites. However, it's probably not necessary with twitter and other social media outlets, but it makes me feel a little oldschool so I will do it the old fashioned way.

         There already seems to be a nationwide feeling of "what will happen after Cliff Lee signs with the yankees." If that is true, and the Yankees are the team to land Lee, I would watch Texas closely. They are in desperate need of an ace. This is how their rotation would shape up without Lee if the season were to start today. Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland and with the 5 spot taken up by a prospect. In all reality, if you're not getting Cliff Lee this offseason you're getting a complimentary piece. If you want impact from free agency this year it will have to be in the bullpen or in the outfield.
           You can bet that if Lee signs in New York, that the rumor mill will start heating up in Kansas City. Texas would have to blow KC away with talent, and I'm not sure that they have the pieces to do so after the deal to bring Lee. Their minor system is deep, but not limitless.

          Nobody should sleep on Anaheim. They are getting Kendry Morales back, they have major league depth at the catcher position that could easily be moved, and they have Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana at the top of the rotation. Carl Crawford is the perfect compliment to their team, and he is a dream player for Mike Soscia. If Arte Moreno is willing to put up the dollars to sign him, I think it's all but a lock that Crawford is an Angel in 2011.
           This is totally out of my own speculation, but I could see Anaheim and the Dodgers getting together to make a deal this offseason. They are both West Coast, the Dodgers need a catcher and offense that Russell Martin could not provide, and Anaheim may look into taking a bat in return. Could possibly James Loney be involved?

To touch on the Red Sox a little more in depth:

        I don't want to go off on a tangent here, but there is a growing trend in the Red Sox front office that does not bode well for the future of the organization. It seems as though Theo Epstein has a problem resisting temptation when a player is able to be acquired, regardless of the potential implications. Giving Ortiz the option at $12.5MM is a mistake in several different ways.
         One being, he will most likely under perform the value of the contact. It's nice to have a player on a short deal, but $12.5 is grossly overpaying a player whom ultimately will probably not be back next season. He only appeals to a small group of teams, therefore if the Red Sox really wanted to keep him for a short term deal they could have let him go and then re-negotiated when he comes back crying.
        Not only that, but the Red Sox are becoming an old team. Signs are pointing towards them being interested in Jason Werth. This would be a huge mistake in my opinion. I do not think that he would have success in the AL East. He strikes out a lot, and like Keith Law pointed out in his free agency breakdown, Werth has trouble already getting his hands through on pitches away. With his long lanky body, that will only become more difficult as he loses bat speed.
       Re-signing Josh Beckett to the deal that the Red Sox did was a mistake, and I have been saying it since before they even started discussions with him. He has a ton of miles on his arm, and a delivery that doesn't finish cleanly. This year he started to implement a cutter into his arsenal, but he never located it well enough, or got late enough break from the pitch to make it effective. The only alternative he has is to work on his change up, and start to create a bigger differential between his fastball. Even if he accomplishes this, I can foresee some arm trouble starting to rear its ugly head. Bottom line is that this contract extension will come back to haunt the front office of the Red Sox for a long time to come.

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