Alex Anthopoulos did what a lot of GM's and insiders didn't think was possible: Unload the massive Vernon Wells contract. Not only did he do so, he got two MLB-level talents in return. Toronto will save a ton of money in this deal, and it also allows them to balance their lineup better vs. tough lefties. Adam Lind has struggled against southpaws, and so has Travis Snider. This also buys them insurance in the case that JP Arencibia fails to live up to the hype over the course of a full big league season. Napoli has never been a great catcher, but he's serviceable and can play 1B and DH also. Rivera is nothing special, but he's serviceable and will benefit from being in a deeper lineup in Toronto.
As far as Wells, he will be an improvement over Rivera on both sides of the field. He had a resurgence in his numbers last year, but before that there were people talking about how he seems to throw away AB's and doesn't play his hardest all the time. Since that surfaced, Wells has shown an improvement and his power numbers returned. He will definitely benefit from being on a competitive team, and will fit nicely into the Anaheim lineup. However, with this all said, I do not feel that his overall value adds up to the cost associated. At his age, and the fact that he's already in the decline phase, Anaheim should have went and pushed harder to sign Carl Crawford. For a team that has been reported to be a little gun-shy for big contracts, this is a puzzling move and simply cannot come close to holding its value now and in the future. It's not even worth mentioning that Wells has an opt out clause after this season because there is no way he will ever see a contract like that ever again. Just when you give baseball ops people some credit for using their brains, they go and make moves like this that seem so blatantly one sided. It will be interesting to see what direction Toronto goes in, as Alex Anthopoulos has done a terrific job setting their club up from a talent and financial standpoint.
This comes a little late, but I am proud of Brian Cashman for coming forward and clearing his stance on the commitment to Rafael Soriano. I had actually discussed the fact that I thought he should do exactly that with a friend just two days before he stepped up and did so. It makes him look better, but in the end, a lot of GM's would give their first born son to have the advantages that come with being the Yankees GM.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
Soriano gets 3yr/$35MM from Yankees
In a day where relievers, and pitchers in general are throwing harder than ever with an even lower lifespan, the Yankees went out and spent big dollars on Rafael Soriano early this morning. The deal is worth a reported 3 years at $35MM in total contract value (plus some incentives I am sure). Immediately there was a bit of harsh reaction over the deal, and understandably so. Relievers don't live up to the multiple year deals that they frequently get when teams become desperate and/or victims of the current market. The Yankees front office can blame Detroit for the commitment they had to make to land Soriano. And although there is no chance he lives up to the full value of the contract, he acquisition has some implications that have become more and more obvious to even casual fans. The loss of a first round pick in the deepest draft in ages is a sign that the Yankees have no regard for getting the player they want.
Although the deal is a bad one, it's not quite as bad as other writers have made it out to be. The easiest comparison I can make is Jonathan Papelbon. He is set to hit he open market next off season, and chances are that he will have a large check coming his way from some club. The Soriano deal will probably be the benchmark, but chances are his agent will push for more due to a healthy and successful track record. However, if you could pick between the two of them, who would you choose? I would pick Soriano. He has better stuff, he's shown he can transition from one league to another and have success in both. When he is healthy, he is flat-out dominant. Papelbon has shown a regression over the past two seasons in my opinino and scouting. His secondary stuff has never been above average, even below average. None of them lack depth or have particularly late movement. So in reality, if Soriano stays relatively healthy we may look back at the deal and think that the Yankees got a decent deal in the end. The easiest way of puting it is this: For the amount of dollars/years you are spending on depth guys and guys below the quality of Soriano, you must ask yourself (if you have the resources) how hard it is to get impact guys at the end of the bullpen. Soriano could easily close for NYY, and is probably an upgrade on 90% of closers presently in the position on other teams. Regardless of his title, he will provide solid innings and has shutdown stuff. The Yankees just told teams in the AL East that they have 7 innings to beat them.
Although the deal is a bad one, it's not quite as bad as other writers have made it out to be. The easiest comparison I can make is Jonathan Papelbon. He is set to hit he open market next off season, and chances are that he will have a large check coming his way from some club. The Soriano deal will probably be the benchmark, but chances are his agent will push for more due to a healthy and successful track record. However, if you could pick between the two of them, who would you choose? I would pick Soriano. He has better stuff, he's shown he can transition from one league to another and have success in both. When he is healthy, he is flat-out dominant. Papelbon has shown a regression over the past two seasons in my opinino and scouting. His secondary stuff has never been above average, even below average. None of them lack depth or have particularly late movement. So in reality, if Soriano stays relatively healthy we may look back at the deal and think that the Yankees got a decent deal in the end. The easiest way of puting it is this: For the amount of dollars/years you are spending on depth guys and guys below the quality of Soriano, you must ask yourself (if you have the resources) how hard it is to get impact guys at the end of the bullpen. Soriano could easily close for NYY, and is probably an upgrade on 90% of closers presently in the position on other teams. Regardless of his title, he will provide solid innings and has shutdown stuff. The Yankees just told teams in the AL East that they have 7 innings to beat them.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Pavano back to the Twins; CarGo gets big extension; Note on Joakim Soria
Just before the weekend it became official that Carl Pavano was re-joining the Twins, in what looks to be a very competitive divsion this year. All of the teams in the central have improved, while the Twins are hopeful that Justin Morneau can return to his all-star caliber coming off of a concussion that took a serious toll on him for the entire second half of the 2010 season. Without Morneau, the Twins all but have no chance in the central this year. There is no way an opposing manager would let Joe Mauer beat them when the game is on the line, and who could blame them?
For the second time in the same offseason, the Colorado Rockies made a huge extension (and leap of faith) to 5-tool player Carlos Gonzalez for 7years and $80MM. This now locks up CarGo through arbitration and a couple of years afterwards. I think it's a great deal that reminds me of the deal Tampa Bay made with Evan Longoria. Now everyone who looks at that deal thinks Longoria was crazy, but Tampa saw a chance to lock up a player that is key to the success of their ballclub and they did it. Same with Gonzalez, because if 2010 isn't a fluke, they have possibly the best all-around player in the game locked up for cheap for the next 7 years. Even if he performs below 2010 (which he likely will), he will still be a great player to have because he does so many things on the field and he absolutely LOVES to hit in Coors Field. If Colorado is right, they will look like geniuses. If they are wrong, they will look like JP Ricardi did when he gave Alex Rios the mega-deal that made him borderline un-moveable. But even Rios had things to offer when he wasn't hitting, and eventually turned that around too.
I found a quote today on Buster Olney's blog about the position the Royals are in with Joakim Soria:
"3. Bill Madden doesn't get the Royals' stance on refusing to trade Joakim Soria. I'd respectfully disagree: Soria's contract is so extraordinary for the team that the value of his deal makes it almost impossible for Kansas City to get equal value."
I completely disagree with Buster on many levels. First of all Soria is cheap, but to Kansas City, that money is better off investing in young position players who will set you up for years of production. Rarely do closers hold their value. Also, closers do not draw fans into the ballpark. I wouldn't pay $100 to watch a team of prospects never get a lead enough times to watch Soria pitch. The fact that his contract is so attainable is even more valuable due to the fact that many mid to low market teams could get involved and not have to move money to take him on, just talent. When they traded Greinke (a guy that draws fans) and now refuse to trade Soria (a guy who throws a couple innings a week) it's really sending mixed signals to the fans in KC. However, I doubt they are thinking along the same lines as everyone in the media. They are smart baseball minds, and realize all of these things also. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tampa Bay went out and got him with some of the pieces they picked up in the Matt Garza trade.
For the second time in the same offseason, the Colorado Rockies made a huge extension (and leap of faith) to 5-tool player Carlos Gonzalez for 7years and $80MM. This now locks up CarGo through arbitration and a couple of years afterwards. I think it's a great deal that reminds me of the deal Tampa Bay made with Evan Longoria. Now everyone who looks at that deal thinks Longoria was crazy, but Tampa saw a chance to lock up a player that is key to the success of their ballclub and they did it. Same with Gonzalez, because if 2010 isn't a fluke, they have possibly the best all-around player in the game locked up for cheap for the next 7 years. Even if he performs below 2010 (which he likely will), he will still be a great player to have because he does so many things on the field and he absolutely LOVES to hit in Coors Field. If Colorado is right, they will look like geniuses. If they are wrong, they will look like JP Ricardi did when he gave Alex Rios the mega-deal that made him borderline un-moveable. But even Rios had things to offer when he wasn't hitting, and eventually turned that around too.
I found a quote today on Buster Olney's blog about the position the Royals are in with Joakim Soria:
"3. Bill Madden doesn't get the Royals' stance on refusing to trade Joakim Soria. I'd respectfully disagree: Soria's contract is so extraordinary for the team that the value of his deal makes it almost impossible for Kansas City to get equal value."
I completely disagree with Buster on many levels. First of all Soria is cheap, but to Kansas City, that money is better off investing in young position players who will set you up for years of production. Rarely do closers hold their value. Also, closers do not draw fans into the ballpark. I wouldn't pay $100 to watch a team of prospects never get a lead enough times to watch Soria pitch. The fact that his contract is so attainable is even more valuable due to the fact that many mid to low market teams could get involved and not have to move money to take him on, just talent. When they traded Greinke (a guy that draws fans) and now refuse to trade Soria (a guy who throws a couple innings a week) it's really sending mixed signals to the fans in KC. However, I doubt they are thinking along the same lines as everyone in the media. They are smart baseball minds, and realize all of these things also. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tampa Bay went out and got him with some of the pieces they picked up in the Matt Garza trade.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Texas to acquire Beltre, DH Young
The baseball front offices must have been skeptical of Adrian Beltre, and rightly so. His career has been like many others to come down the baseball chain. One of great promise, incredible athletic ability, but an annoying inability to perform consistently. It is quite possible that playing in Safeco field had a great impact on his power numbers while playing in Seattle, and it's also possible that he was likely injured and played through it. But, one cannot bring up Adrian Beltre and think "yikes" when they look at his career track record compared to his contract years. The incredible thing that I always bring up when the subject of "contract year" comes up, is that it is mind boggling that these athletes are so talented that they can just simply turn it up a notch on their performance when a pay raise is in line. We see it time and time again, and you never hear about the guys who play hard every day and produce regardless of their contract.
Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Advanced stats will tell you, and your eyes will too. For a guy of his size, he seems to always have his body in the right place at the right time to make the play, and make it look effortless. His defensive metrics have never been in question to anybody. His play at the plate during his contract year with the Dodgers and the Red Sox were awe inspiring MVP-caliber. Last year in Boston, Beltre showed that he's not just a power hitter when he's on.. but he can also hit for a high average and get on base. When he hits the ball, he hits it really hard. One of the most talked about things is when he drops to his knees while hitting a moon shot over the green monster. The way he is able to do things like that and still generate solid contract and leave his bat in the zone for so long is impressive. He isn't your 3-hole hitter, but he is a great 4 or 5 hitting behind a lefty, ala Josh Hamilton. With the kind of skillset that Beltre has, you can't blame a team like Texas locking him down and making room for him on the roster. The deal is a big long for a player at his age, but chances are he will hold his value relatively deep into the contract assuming he stays healthy.
The one thing that bothers me about the deal is the position that Michael Young is currently in. I am of a strong opinion that using him at DH is not using him at peak value. Although he is no longer a plus defender, he is capable and can play many positions. I do not like the idea of using him as a super-utility, because again, this means that an every day player is sitting or DH'ing to make room. There is no doubt that Vlad is getting old and losing bat speed, but I would rather trade Young now to a team that needs a player who can impact their lineup and sign Vlad on the cheap. They would not be losing a draft pick, and what they get in return for Young could set them up to acquire a starter, which they desperately need. I'm not totally sold on Neftali Feliz transitioning into the rotation and being dominant. He has very high expectations (and rightly so), but it was out of the bullpen where hitters aren't going to see you more than once.
I have a hunch that Carl Pavano will be heading to the Yankees again. It makes too much sense, for both parties. I also hope that Joe Girardi opens his eyes and sticks Robinson Cano into the 3-hole, followed by A-Rod and then Teixeira. This is Robinson Cano's team now that Jeter and A-Rod are showing signs of age.
Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Advanced stats will tell you, and your eyes will too. For a guy of his size, he seems to always have his body in the right place at the right time to make the play, and make it look effortless. His defensive metrics have never been in question to anybody. His play at the plate during his contract year with the Dodgers and the Red Sox were awe inspiring MVP-caliber. Last year in Boston, Beltre showed that he's not just a power hitter when he's on.. but he can also hit for a high average and get on base. When he hits the ball, he hits it really hard. One of the most talked about things is when he drops to his knees while hitting a moon shot over the green monster. The way he is able to do things like that and still generate solid contract and leave his bat in the zone for so long is impressive. He isn't your 3-hole hitter, but he is a great 4 or 5 hitting behind a lefty, ala Josh Hamilton. With the kind of skillset that Beltre has, you can't blame a team like Texas locking him down and making room for him on the roster. The deal is a big long for a player at his age, but chances are he will hold his value relatively deep into the contract assuming he stays healthy.
The one thing that bothers me about the deal is the position that Michael Young is currently in. I am of a strong opinion that using him at DH is not using him at peak value. Although he is no longer a plus defender, he is capable and can play many positions. I do not like the idea of using him as a super-utility, because again, this means that an every day player is sitting or DH'ing to make room. There is no doubt that Vlad is getting old and losing bat speed, but I would rather trade Young now to a team that needs a player who can impact their lineup and sign Vlad on the cheap. They would not be losing a draft pick, and what they get in return for Young could set them up to acquire a starter, which they desperately need. I'm not totally sold on Neftali Feliz transitioning into the rotation and being dominant. He has very high expectations (and rightly so), but it was out of the bullpen where hitters aren't going to see you more than once.
I have a hunch that Carl Pavano will be heading to the Yankees again. It makes too much sense, for both parties. I also hope that Joe Girardi opens his eyes and sticks Robinson Cano into the 3-hole, followed by A-Rod and then Teixeira. This is Robinson Cano's team now that Jeter and A-Rod are showing signs of age.
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