I think I would be in the majority with how surprised I was to see Toronto and Seattle making this type of trade. I am not surprised on Toronto's end, but more so Seattle, because in all reality they are going "all-in" this year by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and a second-tier prospect.
Seattle is getting a guy that has the stuff and the makeup to be a great setup guy or a closer if he really puts his talent to use. Last year was his first full year in the big leagues, and although his ERA wasn't all that impressive (4.58), he has shown me that with a few adjustments he can improve. He has a plus fastball that is consistently in the mid 90's and sometimes touches 97-98 MPH. He has developed a change-up to tackle left handed hitters and last time I saw him pitch it seemed to have good depth and deception. I have seen him show a slider to right hander's to keep them off of his fastball, but I think that in time the change-up will be his go-to second pitch even against right handed batters.
The second guy involved in the trade is a strong tools outfielder who has a lot of raw ability but has yet to show an ability to put it together and struggles with plate discipline. League will fit in well with Seattle and I think he will eventually take over the closers role, especially knowing how inconsistent that incumbent closer David Aardsma can be.
What is being said around baseball is that this trade seems pretty lopsided. In my opinion it doesn't make baseball sense from a GM's point of view to trade a potential top of the rotation guy for a setup guy. Granted they are both young and League is more proven than Morrow, but Morrow has shown that he can deliver one plus pitch for an entire game. If the Jays handle him right and develop what's missing from his arsenal, this will be a steal and we will all look at Seattle and say "why did they do that?"
With these kind of trades there is always a lot of speculation because you're dealing with relatively young and not very well established major leaguers. If you put aside the future results, looking at this deal from an X's and O's standpoint makes me really question Seattle's willingness to give up a guy that could be an impact starter for many years to come.
On to other stuff:
The Yankees surprised everyone and went out and got another ace in Javier Vazquez. I think this was a brilliant move by the Yankees. They are basically creating a team that on paper looks unbeatable. Vazquez is unquestionably durable and is a two-way pitcher, in that he can get ground balls but also racks up high strikeout counts. I know that Atlanta needed to shed payroll, but unless they see Melky Cabrera developing into a more all-around hitter I think they lose in this deal.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Friday, December 11, 2009
Winter Meetings Wrap-up
Indianapolis… really? I don’t know who came up with the bright idea to do some type of PR stunt and make it look like the executives and highly paid officials of MLB teams live some type of normal life and hold the meetings in Indianapolis. You would be hard pressed to find a place with worse weather conditions on this time of year. Here’s a hint: if the professional football team of that city plays at an indoor stadium, you probably could pick a better place to hold a convention in the middle of the winter. I attempted to feel bad for some of the writers complaining about it also, but then I realized that they’re living the dream reporting on baseball every day and traveling across the country and whatever feelings I had quickly dissipated.
I chose to write about the meetings at the end because of two reasons. The first being that it was expected that the meetings would be relatively slow this year, and that was true. Secondly, a lot of the moves that teams make sometimes lead to reactionary moves which changes the entire landscape of their decision making.
The perfect opening for the Atlanta Braves. They went ahead and offered both of their premier relievers, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano arbitration. They are both Type A free agents, but I clearly expected a lot of interest in those guys because they are impact arms and teams can’t ever get enough of those. There has been no movement from the Mike Gonzalez camp, but I think the likelihood of a team offering him big dollars and giving up a pick is higher than Soriano just because he is a lefty with good stuff, rather than a righty with good stuff.
Soriano, however, accepted arbitration after the Braves had already made plans that both guys would sign contracts elsewhere. By signing both Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner to one year deals, the Braves couldn’t afford to take on the $8MM that Soriano would be paid through his arbitration hearing. So what did they do? They spun him off to Tampa Bay, and received Jesse Chavez, who was the player in the Akinori Iwamura trade.
This is really a brilliant trade for both sides. Atlanta gets a quality arm at a cheap cost, and Tampa Bay gets their closer at the cost of a guy who didn’t fit into their lineup. Now this bumps everybody in the Tampa bullpen down a notch, and puts them in the places they belong. Dan Wheeler is not a closer, but Soriano has the stuff to be a very successful closer for Tampa and I look for him to nail down 30-35 saves if he stays healthy. Atlanta now gets a guy with a quality arm in Chavez, and takes $8MM off their books.
Oh and by the way, don’t forget that Tampa Bay doesn’t give up a first round pick for Soriano, that right there is a small detail flying under the radar. Now if they can only get rid of that disgusting contract of Pat Burrell they will be in great shape. Willy Aybar should be the DH this year, and should have been last year. If the Rays are smart, they should look into trading Carl Crawford sooner than later. It will be close to impossible for them to resign Crawford, and I doubt he will want to come back after so many horrible years in Tampa. The value they could get in return for Crawford would be enormous. These are the types of movies that small market teams have to make in order to stay competitive. Look what the Tigers just got for Curtis Granderson! Granderson isn’t the complete player that Crawford is, even if Crawford is a couple of years older than him.
Scott Boras reminds me of this: If you always lie over and over, eventually you will start to believe your own lies. Well, everybody seems to be calling him crazy at his overrating and high contract demands of Rick Ankiel and Adrian Beltre. But one thing that simply amazes me, is he always finds somebody to sip on some of that crazy juice and spend big dollars on his guys. Why should he try and level with the GM’s and play into their hands? Hey, it’s easy to call the guy crazy but I constantly marvel at how the guy does it year in and year out. He is worth every dollar from a player perspective.
I’m not going to go on and on about the mega deal between Arizona, Detroit and New York Yankees because there is a ton of stuff written about it all over the place. I do think that everyone harping on Arizona GM Josh Byrnes for making this deal are missing the point. Max Scherzer is NOT Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a front of the rotation starter who is still relatively young and not overly expensive. Ian Kennedy was awful in the AL East, and for reason. He doesn’t have great stuff and he won’t light up the radar screen, but in the NL West he will be a serviceable No. 5 starter who comes very very cheap.
Scherzer is a Scott Boras guy, and is coming up to that point in his career where he’ll start to command some big dollars himself. Arizona is going for the throat this year because of the Dodgers situation, and I love the aggressive approach. Yes, Scherzer has great stuff but he hasn’t shown the ability to command it and put it together yet. Jackson was one of the best starters in the AL in the first half this year not named Zack Greinke. Detroit gets guys who have flashy names, but in all reality the ONLY player who has the ability to be an impact guy is Edwin Jackson. Curtis Granderson is a nice guy who hits righties well, but he can’t hit left hander’s and the league will punish him for that in key spots. If I’m a manager in the NL West, the thought of going into a playoff series against Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and Brandon Webb I am very scared. Check back with me at the end of the 2010 season and put this one in the books: I think Arizona got the best deal.
One more small note. The situation in Dodger camp is really sad. They are so close to being a great team, and the divorce is totally destroying it. Not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is the same as writing on the front page of the LA Times that fans shouldn’t waste their time showing up this season. If Chad Billingsley can start to command his stuff a little better and lower his pitch counts he is a legitimate ace. Between Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw their rotation only needed a few minor tweaks to win that division. Their window is short. Soon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and others will be up for arbitration and they won’t come cheap.
Another thing about the situation in LA. Manny Ramirez has his legacy in his hands this coming season. He is set to make $20MM, and had a pretty forgettable season last year in the midst of the PED scandal and the fact that he simply didn’t produce and his bat looked awfully slow.
I chose to write about the meetings at the end because of two reasons. The first being that it was expected that the meetings would be relatively slow this year, and that was true. Secondly, a lot of the moves that teams make sometimes lead to reactionary moves which changes the entire landscape of their decision making.
The perfect opening for the Atlanta Braves. They went ahead and offered both of their premier relievers, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano arbitration. They are both Type A free agents, but I clearly expected a lot of interest in those guys because they are impact arms and teams can’t ever get enough of those. There has been no movement from the Mike Gonzalez camp, but I think the likelihood of a team offering him big dollars and giving up a pick is higher than Soriano just because he is a lefty with good stuff, rather than a righty with good stuff.
Soriano, however, accepted arbitration after the Braves had already made plans that both guys would sign contracts elsewhere. By signing both Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner to one year deals, the Braves couldn’t afford to take on the $8MM that Soriano would be paid through his arbitration hearing. So what did they do? They spun him off to Tampa Bay, and received Jesse Chavez, who was the player in the Akinori Iwamura trade.
This is really a brilliant trade for both sides. Atlanta gets a quality arm at a cheap cost, and Tampa Bay gets their closer at the cost of a guy who didn’t fit into their lineup. Now this bumps everybody in the Tampa bullpen down a notch, and puts them in the places they belong. Dan Wheeler is not a closer, but Soriano has the stuff to be a very successful closer for Tampa and I look for him to nail down 30-35 saves if he stays healthy. Atlanta now gets a guy with a quality arm in Chavez, and takes $8MM off their books.
Oh and by the way, don’t forget that Tampa Bay doesn’t give up a first round pick for Soriano, that right there is a small detail flying under the radar. Now if they can only get rid of that disgusting contract of Pat Burrell they will be in great shape. Willy Aybar should be the DH this year, and should have been last year. If the Rays are smart, they should look into trading Carl Crawford sooner than later. It will be close to impossible for them to resign Crawford, and I doubt he will want to come back after so many horrible years in Tampa. The value they could get in return for Crawford would be enormous. These are the types of movies that small market teams have to make in order to stay competitive. Look what the Tigers just got for Curtis Granderson! Granderson isn’t the complete player that Crawford is, even if Crawford is a couple of years older than him.
Scott Boras reminds me of this: If you always lie over and over, eventually you will start to believe your own lies. Well, everybody seems to be calling him crazy at his overrating and high contract demands of Rick Ankiel and Adrian Beltre. But one thing that simply amazes me, is he always finds somebody to sip on some of that crazy juice and spend big dollars on his guys. Why should he try and level with the GM’s and play into their hands? Hey, it’s easy to call the guy crazy but I constantly marvel at how the guy does it year in and year out. He is worth every dollar from a player perspective.
I’m not going to go on and on about the mega deal between Arizona, Detroit and New York Yankees because there is a ton of stuff written about it all over the place. I do think that everyone harping on Arizona GM Josh Byrnes for making this deal are missing the point. Max Scherzer is NOT Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a front of the rotation starter who is still relatively young and not overly expensive. Ian Kennedy was awful in the AL East, and for reason. He doesn’t have great stuff and he won’t light up the radar screen, but in the NL West he will be a serviceable No. 5 starter who comes very very cheap.
Scherzer is a Scott Boras guy, and is coming up to that point in his career where he’ll start to command some big dollars himself. Arizona is going for the throat this year because of the Dodgers situation, and I love the aggressive approach. Yes, Scherzer has great stuff but he hasn’t shown the ability to command it and put it together yet. Jackson was one of the best starters in the AL in the first half this year not named Zack Greinke. Detroit gets guys who have flashy names, but in all reality the ONLY player who has the ability to be an impact guy is Edwin Jackson. Curtis Granderson is a nice guy who hits righties well, but he can’t hit left hander’s and the league will punish him for that in key spots. If I’m a manager in the NL West, the thought of going into a playoff series against Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and Brandon Webb I am very scared. Check back with me at the end of the 2010 season and put this one in the books: I think Arizona got the best deal.
One more small note. The situation in Dodger camp is really sad. They are so close to being a great team, and the divorce is totally destroying it. Not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf is the same as writing on the front page of the LA Times that fans shouldn’t waste their time showing up this season. If Chad Billingsley can start to command his stuff a little better and lower his pitch counts he is a legitimate ace. Between Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw their rotation only needed a few minor tweaks to win that division. Their window is short. Soon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and others will be up for arbitration and they won’t come cheap.
Another thing about the situation in LA. Manny Ramirez has his legacy in his hands this coming season. He is set to make $20MM, and had a pretty forgettable season last year in the midst of the PED scandal and the fact that he simply didn’t produce and his bat looked awfully slow.
Friday, December 4, 2009
Scutaro Signing Defines Angst of Small Market Teams
The Boston Red Sox signed veteran SS Marco Scutaro to a 2-year deal with a mutual option for the third year. It is reported that the deal will have both 2010, and 2011 at $5M, with a $1M signing bonus. Boston plugs their gaping hole at the SS position (again), and can check off one of their major needs during the offseason. In the meantime Toronto, who offered Scutaro arbitration a couple of weeks ago, gains a first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Both teams are happy with this result because Toronto just signed Alex Gonzalez and just before that signed John McDonald to an extension, essentially locking up the available infield positions.
Scutaro hasn't had the typical path to success in his career. He played mostly as a backup and only recently shined enough to warrant a starting position and he succeeded. What he did at his position is the part that most don't realize, because the SS position is lacking in offensive production across baseball. I have always been a little suspicious when guys all of a sudden put up dramatically better numbers the year before they reach free agency. Sure, some may be just pure chance, but in all reality the players are aware of what is at stake. Don't get me wrong, I think Scutaro will be a solid player for the Red Sox. He does everything solidly, nothing great, which would be a welcomed attribute in Boston. The part that really bugs me is that the Red Sox gave up a first round pick to get a guy on the verge of decline. I don't like the trade for the Red Sox going forward, all we can do now is wait and see what the numbers say.
The worst part of the deal for the Red Sox is the loss of the first-round pick. Yes, the Red Sox got -- or stole, if you're a bitter Met fan -- a first-round pick for Billy Wagner, but that pick was theirs whether or not they signed Scutaro or another Type-A free agent.
The loser here appears to be Jed Lowrie, whose wrist injury wiped out a 2009 season in which he was expected to contend for the starting shortstop job. Given the long recovery time from serious wrist problems -- such players often need a full year after the injury has healed to regain all their strength in that joint -- it does make sense for Boston to avoid relying on Lowrie for anything in 2010, but I wonder if this means he's become trade bait for a big arm or bat.
From Keith Law's Blog on ESPN.com
Jed Lowrie now takes a back seat on his road to recover from a wrist injury. This will not help his development, but will give him time to bounce back with less pressure. If Scutaro somehow is a total bust and Lowrie is recovering well, he can slide in and Scutaro can take a utility position off of the bench. Now is Scutaro succeeds, Lowrie's value is essentially lost to the Red Sox and he will in all likeliehood be moved to another team. Lowrie is a solid player and projects to be an average to good major leaguer. He is a switch hitter who plays solid defensively and can play multiple positions.
The amazing part about this signing is that most people in the media are raving about how good this deal is for the sox, I am on the other side of the boat. Sure, Scutaro is good and fits into the Money Ball equation perfectly. Desperation moves sometimes work for clubs, and sometimes they come back to haunt them. The first round pick that the Red Sox lost in this deal is extremely valueable. It narrows the gap of time that Jed Lowrie can prove his worth, and you also lose about $16 million dollars (at least) in the process of paying Scutaro.
What does this say to the small to mid-market teams out there? There are teams willing to give up a first round pick and multi-year deals to aging middle infielders. It must be nice to be Theo Epstein, because to most teams losing the pick would be a disaster, not to mention all of the money and lack of production the SS position has provided over the past decade. But when you consider the bigger picture of the signing, it becomes clear that some GM's almost have to be a magician to make a small to mid-market team become a success.
Scutaro hasn't had the typical path to success in his career. He played mostly as a backup and only recently shined enough to warrant a starting position and he succeeded. What he did at his position is the part that most don't realize, because the SS position is lacking in offensive production across baseball. I have always been a little suspicious when guys all of a sudden put up dramatically better numbers the year before they reach free agency. Sure, some may be just pure chance, but in all reality the players are aware of what is at stake. Don't get me wrong, I think Scutaro will be a solid player for the Red Sox. He does everything solidly, nothing great, which would be a welcomed attribute in Boston. The part that really bugs me is that the Red Sox gave up a first round pick to get a guy on the verge of decline. I don't like the trade for the Red Sox going forward, all we can do now is wait and see what the numbers say.
The worst part of the deal for the Red Sox is the loss of the first-round pick. Yes, the Red Sox got -- or stole, if you're a bitter Met fan -- a first-round pick for Billy Wagner, but that pick was theirs whether or not they signed Scutaro or another Type-A free agent.
The loser here appears to be Jed Lowrie, whose wrist injury wiped out a 2009 season in which he was expected to contend for the starting shortstop job. Given the long recovery time from serious wrist problems -- such players often need a full year after the injury has healed to regain all their strength in that joint -- it does make sense for Boston to avoid relying on Lowrie for anything in 2010, but I wonder if this means he's become trade bait for a big arm or bat.
From Keith Law's Blog on ESPN.com
Jed Lowrie now takes a back seat on his road to recover from a wrist injury. This will not help his development, but will give him time to bounce back with less pressure. If Scutaro somehow is a total bust and Lowrie is recovering well, he can slide in and Scutaro can take a utility position off of the bench. Now is Scutaro succeeds, Lowrie's value is essentially lost to the Red Sox and he will in all likeliehood be moved to another team. Lowrie is a solid player and projects to be an average to good major leaguer. He is a switch hitter who plays solid defensively and can play multiple positions.
The amazing part about this signing is that most people in the media are raving about how good this deal is for the sox, I am on the other side of the boat. Sure, Scutaro is good and fits into the Money Ball equation perfectly. Desperation moves sometimes work for clubs, and sometimes they come back to haunt them. The first round pick that the Red Sox lost in this deal is extremely valueable. It narrows the gap of time that Jed Lowrie can prove his worth, and you also lose about $16 million dollars (at least) in the process of paying Scutaro.
What does this say to the small to mid-market teams out there? There are teams willing to give up a first round pick and multi-year deals to aging middle infielders. It must be nice to be Theo Epstein, because to most teams losing the pick would be a disaster, not to mention all of the money and lack of production the SS position has provided over the past decade. But when you consider the bigger picture of the signing, it becomes clear that some GM's almost have to be a magician to make a small to mid-market team become a success.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Offseason Rumblings and Cy Young Award Announced Later Today...
As predicted, the hot stove has been more like a rare stake: warm on the outside but cool in the center. I'm not falling for it though, because there are a lot of teams that need to plug gaps. With the economy the way it is, teams may go the extra mile in a trade to get a guy that will draw fans in the coming summer. Looks like the teams that blew their farm systems for major league level busts will be missing out. I bet Arizona wishes they had Carlos Quentin back, and boy would he look good in the middle of that lineup with Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton.
Got this from Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com:
The other day I spoke with an NL GM who is greatly impressed with what the Orioles are putting together.
"They have a chance to be the Rays [of 2008] in 2011," said the GM. "They've got a lot of talent."
I e-mailed Dave Trembley, the Orioles' manager, and asked him about the specific adjustments that players like Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman and others will need to make, going forward. His reply: "I was in Sarasota over the weekend for Orioles' fanfest, which was very well received. Jones, Nolan Reimold and Brad Bergesen were among those who attended.
"All the young pitchers need to command their fastball and locate their pitches, especially when behind in the count. I would expect to see significant improvement in these areas going forward.
"I like the outfield of [Nick] Markakis, Jones, Reimold and [Felix] Pie (who really played well the 2nd half of the season). Jones might have gotten somewhat home run conscious, and will get back to using the whole field and letting the pitchers walk him instead of chasing pitches out of the strike zone. He is a tremendous talent.
"I would expect Wieters to show us what he did the last month of the season, at the plate and in the way he threw and handled himself behind the plate. He threw out Carl Crawford in one game on back-to-back attempts, and hit over .300 the last month of the season. I can only imagine how fast the game must have been for him, learning the league, calling a game, working with a young staff and still getting four at-bats every night. He never showed any panic; he is a special player. He will benefit, as did Jones from his first year, and I would expect him to put up some very good offensive numbers next season. He had to learn how to adjust to being pitched to by major league guys night after night."
I couldn't agree more that the Orioles are on the right track. They better be, because their fans have stuck by them through some tough times. They have what every small market teams envy, young talented players all rising at the same time. It's one thing to stockpile talent, but to have them all coming up at the same time is a little bit of luck and a lot of smart decisions by the Baltimore front office. If everything goes right with these players, watch out AL East. As if that division needs to get any tougher.
If I were a free agent starting pitcher, the AL East would be the last place I would want to go if I wanted to get another big deal. But if the Orioles are going to do what it looks like they can do, they will have to do exactly that: add a veteran bat to the lineup who can lead these young guys to success. They have holes at all the infield positions aside from 2B where Brian Roberts continues to provide excellent production both defensively and offensively. Only time will tell, but don't be surprised if you see Baltimore making a surge to become a seriousl playoff contender sooner than later.
Another hot topic has been left handed power threat Adrian Gonzalez and not if, but when he will land with another club. There are those out there who don't feel like San Diego will deal Gonzo but I would be shocked if they didn't move him this offseason. He is the best offensive player available, and plays pretty solid defense. If you make a trade for him you can probably lock him up at a relatively affordable price and avoid getting locked into an older, less talented player like the Matt Holliday's and Jason Bay's will cost you.
The other thing to consider, and im sure other GM's are also thinking this is that San Diego basically went "all-in" on their rebuilding phase by trading Jake Peavy. There is no reason to keep Gonzalez and let him go for draft picks when there is a slim chance you will be competing within the next two years, because that is when his contract will be up and he will command big dollars if he hits the open market. With that in mind, San Diego basically has to trade Gonzalez at his prime value and that time is now. The amazing thing is that he may be too good in the eyes of a lot of teams, so they may go above and beyond to try and snag him before another team does.
It would be scary to think of Gonzalez in the middle of a talented lineup like the Boston Red Sox, but any team seriously interested (and there will be plenty) is going to have to give up a whole lot. I would be shocked if the Red Sox picked up Gonzalez now that Jed Hoyer is in San Diego. They already gave up some premier talent when they dealt for Victor Martinez and I don't see Theo Epstein leaving himself so vulnerable.
Four days until free agents are available to sign to any club, and there are still some arbitration elligible players left out there.
Zack Greinke should win the Cy Young, it will be announced later today. Don't be surprised if he wins a few more after this if he can continue to stay healthy. He has the best stuff in the game when he's on, it's borderline silly and certainly unhittable.
I was a little surprised to see Andrew Bailey win the AL ROY Award. His numbers were great, and he was pretty dominant in the time he was in the majors, but I think Rick Porcello should have won. Porcello was thrown into the fire without much warning on a playoff contender and was very good. Consider the fact that he was only 20 years old and was on a very limited pitch count and I think you can make a strong case in his favor. Going forward Porcello is going to be a very effective pitcher for a long time with that nasty 2-seamer.
Got this from Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com:
The other day I spoke with an NL GM who is greatly impressed with what the Orioles are putting together.
"They have a chance to be the Rays [of 2008] in 2011," said the GM. "They've got a lot of talent."
"All the young pitchers need to command their fastball and locate their pitches, especially when behind in the count. I would expect to see significant improvement in these areas going forward.
"I like the outfield of [Nick] Markakis, Jones, Reimold and [Felix] Pie (who really played well the 2nd half of the season). Jones might have gotten somewhat home run conscious, and will get back to using the whole field and letting the pitchers walk him instead of chasing pitches out of the strike zone. He is a tremendous talent.
"I would expect Wieters to show us what he did the last month of the season, at the plate and in the way he threw and handled himself behind the plate. He threw out Carl Crawford in one game on back-to-back attempts, and hit over .300 the last month of the season. I can only imagine how fast the game must have been for him, learning the league, calling a game, working with a young staff and still getting four at-bats every night. He never showed any panic; he is a special player. He will benefit, as did Jones from his first year, and I would expect him to put up some very good offensive numbers next season. He had to learn how to adjust to being pitched to by major league guys night after night."
I couldn't agree more that the Orioles are on the right track. They better be, because their fans have stuck by them through some tough times. They have what every small market teams envy, young talented players all rising at the same time. It's one thing to stockpile talent, but to have them all coming up at the same time is a little bit of luck and a lot of smart decisions by the Baltimore front office. If everything goes right with these players, watch out AL East. As if that division needs to get any tougher.
If I were a free agent starting pitcher, the AL East would be the last place I would want to go if I wanted to get another big deal. But if the Orioles are going to do what it looks like they can do, they will have to do exactly that: add a veteran bat to the lineup who can lead these young guys to success. They have holes at all the infield positions aside from 2B where Brian Roberts continues to provide excellent production both defensively and offensively. Only time will tell, but don't be surprised if you see Baltimore making a surge to become a seriousl playoff contender sooner than later.
Another hot topic has been left handed power threat Adrian Gonzalez and not if, but when he will land with another club. There are those out there who don't feel like San Diego will deal Gonzo but I would be shocked if they didn't move him this offseason. He is the best offensive player available, and plays pretty solid defense. If you make a trade for him you can probably lock him up at a relatively affordable price and avoid getting locked into an older, less talented player like the Matt Holliday's and Jason Bay's will cost you.
The other thing to consider, and im sure other GM's are also thinking this is that San Diego basically went "all-in" on their rebuilding phase by trading Jake Peavy. There is no reason to keep Gonzalez and let him go for draft picks when there is a slim chance you will be competing within the next two years, because that is when his contract will be up and he will command big dollars if he hits the open market. With that in mind, San Diego basically has to trade Gonzalez at his prime value and that time is now. The amazing thing is that he may be too good in the eyes of a lot of teams, so they may go above and beyond to try and snag him before another team does.
It would be scary to think of Gonzalez in the middle of a talented lineup like the Boston Red Sox, but any team seriously interested (and there will be plenty) is going to have to give up a whole lot. I would be shocked if the Red Sox picked up Gonzalez now that Jed Hoyer is in San Diego. They already gave up some premier talent when they dealt for Victor Martinez and I don't see Theo Epstein leaving himself so vulnerable.
Four days until free agents are available to sign to any club, and there are still some arbitration elligible players left out there.
Zack Greinke should win the Cy Young, it will be announced later today. Don't be surprised if he wins a few more after this if he can continue to stay healthy. He has the best stuff in the game when he's on, it's borderline silly and certainly unhittable.
I was a little surprised to see Andrew Bailey win the AL ROY Award. His numbers were great, and he was pretty dominant in the time he was in the majors, but I think Rick Porcello should have won. Porcello was thrown into the fire without much warning on a playoff contender and was very good. Consider the fact that he was only 20 years old and was on a very limited pitch count and I think you can make a strong case in his favor. Going forward Porcello is going to be a very effective pitcher for a long time with that nasty 2-seamer.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Winter Meetings Begin
Just this week the general managers of all MLB clubs began what seems to be a pretty lack-luster winter meetings. Gazing through the list of players that qualify for free agency, it looks as though clubs are going to have to be creative if they want to make any sort of dramatic impact on the talent level of their club or hope their top prospects come through.
As expected, the focus thus far has been on the two premier outfielders available. Jason Bay had a Jason Bay-like year in Boston, and Matt Holliday had a pretty good stretch filling in for the STL Cardinals aside from a horribly misplayed ball in the OF at the worst time imagineable. The interesting side of this has been the view of things here in the Boston area in regards to Jason Bay going forward.
Let's face is, Bay is going to command a pretty hefty contract. He couldn't have hit the market at a better time in his career. Coming from out of the spotlight in the postseason with the Red Sox just boosted the chance that he will be offered a long term, big money deal from a club desperate for offense. Everybody seems to point to the Giants as players for Bay, but I do not think they will dish out the kind of money for an OF of Bay's caliber, especially considering how big left field is in San Francisco and that they have a team full of young players.
The simple point is that Jason Bay is not that great of a player. I always thought he was a type 1-A guy, who would be a great No. 5 hitter in a lineup with two sluggers in front of him. Giving him a multi-year high salary deal will be a huge mistake for whatever club gives it to him, because he is just entering his decline years and he has never been a big .OBP guy anyhow. He has holes in his swing (just like everyone does, aside from a few of the elite), but this isn't the type of guy I would invest major dollars going forward if I were the GM of any team aside from the New York Yankees. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of GM's pass on Bay and Holliday this offseason and try to get through this season with what they have.
One thing that will be sad is if STL does not get a hitter behind Albert Pujols. They feel the pressure from the fans, the media and even their own players. If they are patient and try to see if the price tag on either of those guys goes down, then they may strike and get a good deal. I doubt it though, especially since there are several clubs who feel they are just one bat away from being contenders. This is all good news for John Lackey, because there may be teams not willing to spend big dollars on the hitters, and would rather amp up their pitching instead. Lackey is a proven veteran and could offer a lot to a club with young SP's.
Not surprising moves made yet. The big guys went on the market, and there were some small moves. The Red Sox trading for Jeremy Hermida was a smart deal. They add depth and take a flier on a guy that has tons of talent and will be aided by a good hitting instructor.
Will update again when the rumors start picking up!
As expected, the focus thus far has been on the two premier outfielders available. Jason Bay had a Jason Bay-like year in Boston, and Matt Holliday had a pretty good stretch filling in for the STL Cardinals aside from a horribly misplayed ball in the OF at the worst time imagineable. The interesting side of this has been the view of things here in the Boston area in regards to Jason Bay going forward.
Let's face is, Bay is going to command a pretty hefty contract. He couldn't have hit the market at a better time in his career. Coming from out of the spotlight in the postseason with the Red Sox just boosted the chance that he will be offered a long term, big money deal from a club desperate for offense. Everybody seems to point to the Giants as players for Bay, but I do not think they will dish out the kind of money for an OF of Bay's caliber, especially considering how big left field is in San Francisco and that they have a team full of young players.
The simple point is that Jason Bay is not that great of a player. I always thought he was a type 1-A guy, who would be a great No. 5 hitter in a lineup with two sluggers in front of him. Giving him a multi-year high salary deal will be a huge mistake for whatever club gives it to him, because he is just entering his decline years and he has never been a big .OBP guy anyhow. He has holes in his swing (just like everyone does, aside from a few of the elite), but this isn't the type of guy I would invest major dollars going forward if I were the GM of any team aside from the New York Yankees. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of GM's pass on Bay and Holliday this offseason and try to get through this season with what they have.
One thing that will be sad is if STL does not get a hitter behind Albert Pujols. They feel the pressure from the fans, the media and even their own players. If they are patient and try to see if the price tag on either of those guys goes down, then they may strike and get a good deal. I doubt it though, especially since there are several clubs who feel they are just one bat away from being contenders. This is all good news for John Lackey, because there may be teams not willing to spend big dollars on the hitters, and would rather amp up their pitching instead. Lackey is a proven veteran and could offer a lot to a club with young SP's.
Not surprising moves made yet. The big guys went on the market, and there were some small moves. The Red Sox trading for Jeremy Hermida was a smart deal. They add depth and take a flier on a guy that has tons of talent and will be aided by a good hitting instructor.
Will update again when the rumors start picking up!
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Zack Greinke's Amazing 2009 and Division Series Recap/LCS Preview
It would be difficult to count how many pitching prospects have not worked out. Many of them with great hype, and some came seemingly out of nowhere. As a general manager all you can do is put faith in your scouts and your own eye, because no amateur or minor league numbers can compare to pitching on a big league mound. Zack Greinke found that out the hard way and struggled mightily. One thing was unique about Greinke's struggles though, and it never really gave him a chance to shine like the pitcher he was all along.
He dealt with some personal mental issues. He saw a doctor about it and received medication to deal with the disorder and from every count it seemed to unleash every burden that had held him back previously. In essence, he should have left a memo with the rest of the American League that said "I hope you enjoyed the hits", because next season Greinke was a completely different pitcher and a different guy.
"The Royals are 1-7 in Greinke's eight no-decisions, despite the fact that he has a 1.95 ERA in those starts (12 earned runs in 55 1/3 innings) and that he left with a lead on four occasions (4 blown saves). He has been shut out four times, three in losses and once in a no-decision. He has a 1.05 ERA in his 15 starts the club has won (14 wins for him) and an opponents batting average of .196 in those games. The club has scored 13 runs in his 8 losses (1.63 per game) and 30 runs in his 16 starts that have wound up a loss or no-decision (1.88 per game). He became the fourth major league pitcher since 1900 to follow a 15-strikeout game with a one-hitter, matching Vida Blue (1971), Randy Johnson (1998) and Pedro Martinez (1999). He will enter his final three starts 20 strikeouts shy of the club record of 244 set by Dennis Leonard in 1977."
Not satisfied yet? Here are Greinke's numbers out of all the pitchers in the AL this season.
This comes from Buster Olney's Blog on ESPN.com As you can see he was not only dominant in his own league, but across the entire game he was absolutely dominant across the board.
This does not factor in how many times I saw this season (thanks to MLB extra innings) that Greinke would give up 1 ER in the first couple of innings and it literally felt like the game was over. As amazing as it was, getting a singular run off of Greinke at one point looked like it was a morale boost for the opposition. That is where the comparisons to Randy Johnson in '98, and Pedro Martinez in '99 don't stop. When you watched them pitch, much like Greinke this entire season, you couldn't take your eyes off of the game. They were on another level. Felix Hernandez has been phenomenal, and he's another guy that you're amazed by watching, but the command that Greinke has on all of his pitches puts him at the top.
This years division series went as planned, with the exception of the NL West where the Dodgers got over their end of season slump to beat the St. Louis Cardinals. Not only did they beat them, but they swept! That suprised me, even though I had picked the Dodgers to win. Chris Carpeneter looked uncomfortable and did not have his usual stuff and poise. He did whatever he could though and gave his chance a team to win, they just couldn't pull it off.
Looks like the Dodgers are hot again, and it all begins with Matt Kemp hitting in the 2-hole in the lineup. If they can get Manny to contribute they will be dangerous. They key to their success, however, is if they can get any type of consistent production from Chad Billingsley. Clayton Kershaw has emerged as the staff ace, but you cannot put an entire teams hopes on the shoulders of a 21-year old pitcher. Billingsley will have to step it up, along with Randy Wolf if they're going to have a chance in a 7-game series.
The rest of the series basically went as planned. The Red Sox lost to a really good LA Angels team. The sentiment around New England is a little bit of shock, but I think most baseball fans realize that the offense they had in place would not get it done without a very effective Josh Beckett. I look forward to seeing Beckett in the coming year, since he will be in a contract year and there will be growing anticipation since the Sox did not make it to the league championship. Mark Texeira who? It's amazing that everyone can forget about Tex so quickly with the emergence of Kendry Morales. His success comes as no shock to me, because he has always had the talent and never got the chance. Now he has a chance to shine and looks like he might be the next switch hitting power threat at 1B, a la Lance Berkman comparisons!
Not much to touch upon with the Yankees/Twins series. In reality, the Twins had no chance when they lost Justin Morneau, and you could see the look on Morneau's face on the bench that he really wanted to be part of it. The Yankees face a much better opponent in the next round, however. This will be a good series and I expect it to go 6 games.
Tomorrow night the NLCS starts, I think this game is of ultimate importance to the Dodgers.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Organizations in Transition
For my first entry I would like to review a few articles I found around the industry. Many clubs are moving forward, while others are treading the water. Sure, it is a business. I am the most realistic about the industry and what kind of investment it is as just about anybody. Here's the thing, the public will not accept that, because that is not part of what it is to be a fan. So why are so many clubs blatantly squeaking by and the fans continue to go. When you watch the Yankees games and you see empty seats in the background you are puzzled and it looks awkward. When the same thing happens at a Pittsburgh Pirates game, you accept it because that club is not as successful.
From Buster Olney's Blog on ESPN.com:
MLB implemented the salary compensation program in order to help these clubs spend the dollars necessary to be successful, but what have they done with it? The fans are angry, an I don't blame them. Most of them want to be in the dark about the business side of the game and that's good for big business. Don't force them to see that side, invest in the product just like you would in any other business venture to get ahead of the pack. Taking advantage of the fan base and MLB's salary sharing program will only last so long, and it will hurt everyone in the game.
Albert "The Great"
At the tender young age of 24, I cannot say that I've seen a lot of the greatest players in the history of the game. This I can tell you, I am in awe when I watch Albert Pujols at the plate. The numbers don't lie either, and it looks as though he won't slow down any time soon.
I can say with confidence that he is the best player I have ever seen. Often when the greatest all around player conversation comes up, Joe Mauer is almost always brought up in comparision. Mauer has been fantastic and remarkably got better this season by improving his power numbers drastically. The difference is this, ask any pitcher in baseball and ask them this: Who would you rather pitch to? Most will agree that facing either of them is not what they look forward to, but Pujols is the ultimate threat at the plate, and that answers the question. I am lucky to be around while he is in his prime, and nobody should underestimate what he is doing.
Blue Jays front office changes:
Nick Canepa of the Union-Tribune had an article on October 4th about Jeff Moorad and the decision to fire Kevin Towers. Towers is a Massachusetts resident and often makes appearances on local media outlets. He seems like a great guy, and really has a passion for sports. All of that aside, I feel it was a reactionary decision by Moorad, and the wrong one. In essence, you could create a pretty successful team out of the players that have been injured and unable to contribute to the Blue Jays.
The most important of all, being Dustin McGowan, is to the Blue Jays what Clay Buccholz or Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes are to the Red Sox and Yankees. He projected to be a front of the line starter and the heir-apparent to the dismissal of A.J. Burnett. Keeping that in perspective, all teams go through these kind of disappointments. Bottom line is that Towers did nothing but provide the organization with a chance to win. He made moves to get plus holes when he lost key veterans, he also drafted and signed some of the premier baseball talent in the game.
On top of all of this, is the economic effect on Canada. They have been hit just as hard, if not harder than any other club. They had to cut a guy they were really high on, in Alex Rios, in order to shed payroll to survive. A lot of fans accepted this because of Rios' performance of late, but one thing that needs to be clarified is that money is probably not going back into player development and signing bonuses. It will be held onto in order to pay the bills. Good luck to the replacement, it will be hard to beat what Towers did while there.
I hope you enjoyed the first round of the playoffs. In my next entry I will touch upon the division series and the performance of Zack Greinke this year.
From Buster Olney's Blog on ESPN.com:
"Owner Bob Nutting is frustrated with the Pirates' failure this year. If his sentiments are real, and not an expression of empathy for the fan base, this is not a good sign for the club's front office, because the reality is that the Pirates are at least a couple of years away from taking long strides forward."
MLB implemented the salary compensation program in order to help these clubs spend the dollars necessary to be successful, but what have they done with it? The fans are angry, an I don't blame them. Most of them want to be in the dark about the business side of the game and that's good for big business. Don't force them to see that side, invest in the product just like you would in any other business venture to get ahead of the pack. Taking advantage of the fan base and MLB's salary sharing program will only last so long, and it will hurt everyone in the game.
Albert "The Great"
At the tender young age of 24, I cannot say that I've seen a lot of the greatest players in the history of the game. This I can tell you, I am in awe when I watch Albert Pujols at the plate. The numbers don't lie either, and it looks as though he won't slow down any time soon.
"As Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN Stats & Information notes, Pujols accomplished a Decade Triple Crown: Pujols is just the fourth player to accomplish a "Decade Triple Crown" -- that is, leading a league (AL or NL) in home runs, RBIs and batting average over the course of an entire decade. In doing so, he joins a trio of Hall-of-Fame legends. Ted Williams took the crown for the AL in the 1940s (though he missed a good portion of time while fighting in WWII), Rogers Hornsby in the NL in the 1920s and Honus Wagner in the NL in the 1900s. (Note: RBIs did not become an official stat until 1920, so Honus Wagner's inclusion is somewhat unofficial.)"
I can say with confidence that he is the best player I have ever seen. Often when the greatest all around player conversation comes up, Joe Mauer is almost always brought up in comparision. Mauer has been fantastic and remarkably got better this season by improving his power numbers drastically. The difference is this, ask any pitcher in baseball and ask them this: Who would you rather pitch to? Most will agree that facing either of them is not what they look forward to, but Pujols is the ultimate threat at the plate, and that answers the question. I am lucky to be around while he is in his prime, and nobody should underestimate what he is doing.
Blue Jays front office changes:
Nick Canepa of the Union-Tribune had an article on October 4th about Jeff Moorad and the decision to fire Kevin Towers. Towers is a Massachusetts resident and often makes appearances on local media outlets. He seems like a great guy, and really has a passion for sports. All of that aside, I feel it was a reactionary decision by Moorad, and the wrong one. In essence, you could create a pretty successful team out of the players that have been injured and unable to contribute to the Blue Jays.
The most important of all, being Dustin McGowan, is to the Blue Jays what Clay Buccholz or Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes are to the Red Sox and Yankees. He projected to be a front of the line starter and the heir-apparent to the dismissal of A.J. Burnett. Keeping that in perspective, all teams go through these kind of disappointments. Bottom line is that Towers did nothing but provide the organization with a chance to win. He made moves to get plus holes when he lost key veterans, he also drafted and signed some of the premier baseball talent in the game.
On top of all of this, is the economic effect on Canada. They have been hit just as hard, if not harder than any other club. They had to cut a guy they were really high on, in Alex Rios, in order to shed payroll to survive. A lot of fans accepted this because of Rios' performance of late, but one thing that needs to be clarified is that money is probably not going back into player development and signing bonuses. It will be held onto in order to pay the bills. Good luck to the replacement, it will be hard to beat what Towers did while there.
I hope you enjoyed the first round of the playoffs. In my next entry I will touch upon the division series and the performance of Zack Greinke this year.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Here it goes..
Blogging has had such an epic mark on media and the ability to voice your opinion. No longer are the days that you had to be a well respected writer for an established paper to get millions thinking about your exact words. I have seen how things have changed, and how they are changing. The credibility factor is fading, and more than ever there are people willing to take their turn at throwing a rumor at the wall seeing if it will stick. I am not interested in that, merely a place to put my thoughts. If this is to somehow turn into a career, then so be it. I have a love for this game that has taken off over the past 10 years of my life. Let's see how it goes.
MLB Perspectives is a blogging site designed to do exactly what it says, give perspectives. Right now it will just include myself, Bill King. Will others join and be able to contribute? Hey, you never know. I love finding others with a passion for the game. Nothing can excite a true baseball fan like a good discussion about a certain player, play, stat or anything else you can come up with.
Whenever I have a thought about the game I will post it here.
Enjoy.
-Bill King
MLB Perspectives is a blogging site designed to do exactly what it says, give perspectives. Right now it will just include myself, Bill King. Will others join and be able to contribute? Hey, you never know. I love finding others with a passion for the game. Nothing can excite a true baseball fan like a good discussion about a certain player, play, stat or anything else you can come up with.
Whenever I have a thought about the game I will post it here.
Enjoy.
-Bill King
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