The balance of power in the AL East seemed to swing late Wednesday night, as the Red Sox and Carl Crawford made an announcement that they had agreed to a 7-year/$142MM contract pending a physical. From what I understand, Crawford's decision was based upon the players attitudes towards the game. The tough nosed, gritty style of play that the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek and others. That is an uncommon thing to come from a player regarding why he chose a certain place to play, and a good one for Red Sox fans. There are intangibles that go with certain guys, and they can be infectious. Not only does Crawford bring his rare and unique skill set to a team that had been getting progressively older and slower, he brings an attitude that will make everyone around him better.
From seeing Crawford over the years, I can tell you that he is a special player. The amazing part is that even though most others in New England have seen him and how he plays the game, they were still sort of enamoured over Jayson Werth because of his power/RBI potential. Most used the argument that none of his stats (aside from the obvious steals) jump out at you, and how could he possibly be worth $20MM/season? If you were to look deeper however, there is really no comparison between the two. There are aspects to total production that put miles between the two of them. For those who do not really understand the difference, an easy way is to look at a typical fantasy league and use a player comparison to see the intricacies. Amazingly, Crawford had 5 more RBI (90) than Werth (85). Werth was higher in slugging, walks, doubles and HR's with 46 less AB's. Seems like I don't know what I'm talking about, right? Not so fast.
Werth was the crucial right handed compliment to the Phillies lineup. He saw an incredibly better amount of RBI situations and better pitches to hit. He hit in a ballpark that is made for him, and is an injury risk. He also has only had two years of real evidence that he can put up these kind of numbers. Numbers which did not start to surface until he was mixed in the Philly lineup, and in that ballpark. Crawford has hit in many different spots in the lineup, and used in different ways than Werth. His consistent production is something you can contribute to his hard work ethic. Now he will no longer be the man along with Evan Longoria, he will be mixed into an all-star lineup that will be relentless against RHP. He will likely see an incredible amount of better pitches to hit due to the mix of players hitting behind him, no matter where he hits in the lineup. He has less holes in his swing, and is more likely to hold his value through the end of this deal than Werth.
One thing to watch now that the Red Sox lineup got even more left handed is the value of Brian Fuentes and Scott Downs. It is almost a certainty that they will be given a bigger deal than they had anticipated with the Yankees now in more need of their services. Word is that Damaso Marte will not be healthy enough to start the season, and even he is climbing in age. Both Downs and Fuentes have shown that they can get righties out, but if I had to choose between the two I would go with Downs. He has a variety of off-speed stuff that I think would play better in Yankee stadium in terms of giving up the long ball. They are both very effective against left-handed batters and one of them is almost certain to sign with NYY.
The Cliff Lee saga continues, as both the Rangers and Yankees dig a hole deeper than they would like. It's really sad, because at 7-years, one of these teams are going to likely regret overextending themselves. However, I have written previously that I feel that Lee will age well. He has always been able to locate and aside from the mistake to Edgar Renteria, he rarely makes mistakes that hurt him. His WHIP over the past 4 seasons is astounding. The most exciting thing to consider is what all this means to Albert Pujols. The best hitter in the game must be watching this very closely. As Bobby Cox was quoted as saying "if Ryan Howard gets $25MM/year, then Pujols should get $50MM/year because he is twice as good as anybody out there".
Friday, December 10, 2010
Monday, December 6, 2010
Sox acquire Gonzalez, other moves as the Winter Meetings begin
The Boston Red Sox put together the final touches on a trade that had been in the works for over two years to acquire 1B Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is an extremely talented hitter that should have no problem adjusting to the AL East due to his plate recognition and ability to work with a pitch rather than force it. He has been scouted as to have issues with inside fastballs, but this should be an adjustment he can make rather easily without having to cheat too much. He lets the ball travel very deep into the strike zone and seems to really see the ball, and rarely overswings. He is a rarely gifted lefty, in that he handles left handed pitching rather well. Despite playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, he has managed to put up both power and average numbers consistently since being dealt to San Diego from Texas. Gonzalez had his $6.5MM option picked up by San Diego previous to dealing him to Boston, and weather or not that contract will be erased by a new 7-year/$154MM deal is yet to be seen. As of the time of this writing, Gonzalez has not put the pen to paper on a new deal. Rumors are that him and the team have agreed to wait until after the first game of the season to avoid an extended luxury tax penalty. The rumor that the Red Sox ownership are trying to do this in order to spend more money on free agents this offseason is laughable. If they want somebody they will go get the player if they feel it is within reason and value, regardless if they save a couple million in luxury tax penalties.
Out the door to San Diego are three top flight talents from the Red Sox system. Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes who have yet to see MLB action, thus their countdown to a raise has yet to begin. This was very important, and the difference between Fuentes and Ellsbury being the players swapped. Even if San Diego had coveted Ellsbury, he is about to hit his arbitration years and is expeted to get a hefty couple of raises. He is also represented by Scott Boras, and judging by how grossly overpaid Jayson Werth just got via free agency and an open market, you can guarantee that Ellsbury will be doing exactly the same about 3 or 4 years from now. There are may scouting reports available for all three of these players available, so I won't go into major detail about them. However, Kelly will substantially benefit from playing in Petco Park. That is something that I wrote about previous to Jason Stark's tweet that surfaced up today as Gonzalez was officially introduced. Seeing as how Kelly was made available recently to San Diego, I think that once he was able to be had that SD had to make the move. They received a significant offer from CHW, and I am assuming that Tyler Flowers was part of the deal, possibly Chris Sale also came up in discussions. Judging by the fact that AJ Pierzynski was resigned by CHW, I think that the ChiSox may be losing faith in Flowers as a big league backstop and SD most likely saw the same thing.
Later on this afternoon I learned that Mark Reynolds was traded to Baltimore for pitchers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolo. Hernandez is the most polished of the two, and had some success as a closer/setup man for Baltimore after being bumped out of the rotation. He has good movement on his fastball and mixes in a slider to keep hitters off balance. I have been hearing that ARZ will use him in a relief role, where his stuff tends to be more sharp and he is more effective when he is not going through the lineup three to four times a game. Mickolo is the guy with the bigger stuff, but less command and polish. He has had a tough time in the AL East, but what pitcher doesn't at some point? He will certainly have a better time getting by hitters in the weakest division in baseball, but watch out for the long ball.
Baltimore now gets the corner infielder with power that they lost when Aubrey Huff left to the champion San Francisco Giants. Between losing Huff and most likely Ty Wiggington, they looked to get some of those RBI's back with a gamble. I am not under the impression that this will work out however, and think Baltimore should have folded this hand and kept onto their live arms. Simply put: Reynolds will be overmatched in the AL East.
Hot stove is burning at the moment, rumor is that a possible Greinke deal could net KC a huge return. Rumor was that they asked for Kyle Drabek. Travis Snider and two prospects from Toronto in return for Greinke. That would be essentially Roy Halladay and Travis Snider for Greinke.. doesn't sound so good if you're a Jays fan when you put it that way.
Out the door to San Diego are three top flight talents from the Red Sox system. Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes who have yet to see MLB action, thus their countdown to a raise has yet to begin. This was very important, and the difference between Fuentes and Ellsbury being the players swapped. Even if San Diego had coveted Ellsbury, he is about to hit his arbitration years and is expeted to get a hefty couple of raises. He is also represented by Scott Boras, and judging by how grossly overpaid Jayson Werth just got via free agency and an open market, you can guarantee that Ellsbury will be doing exactly the same about 3 or 4 years from now. There are may scouting reports available for all three of these players available, so I won't go into major detail about them. However, Kelly will substantially benefit from playing in Petco Park. That is something that I wrote about previous to Jason Stark's tweet that surfaced up today as Gonzalez was officially introduced. Seeing as how Kelly was made available recently to San Diego, I think that once he was able to be had that SD had to make the move. They received a significant offer from CHW, and I am assuming that Tyler Flowers was part of the deal, possibly Chris Sale also came up in discussions. Judging by the fact that AJ Pierzynski was resigned by CHW, I think that the ChiSox may be losing faith in Flowers as a big league backstop and SD most likely saw the same thing.
Later on this afternoon I learned that Mark Reynolds was traded to Baltimore for pitchers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolo. Hernandez is the most polished of the two, and had some success as a closer/setup man for Baltimore after being bumped out of the rotation. He has good movement on his fastball and mixes in a slider to keep hitters off balance. I have been hearing that ARZ will use him in a relief role, where his stuff tends to be more sharp and he is more effective when he is not going through the lineup three to four times a game. Mickolo is the guy with the bigger stuff, but less command and polish. He has had a tough time in the AL East, but what pitcher doesn't at some point? He will certainly have a better time getting by hitters in the weakest division in baseball, but watch out for the long ball.
Baltimore now gets the corner infielder with power that they lost when Aubrey Huff left to the champion San Francisco Giants. Between losing Huff and most likely Ty Wiggington, they looked to get some of those RBI's back with a gamble. I am not under the impression that this will work out however, and think Baltimore should have folded this hand and kept onto their live arms. Simply put: Reynolds will be overmatched in the AL East.
Hot stove is burning at the moment, rumor is that a possible Greinke deal could net KC a huge return. Rumor was that they asked for Kyle Drabek. Travis Snider and two prospects from Toronto in return for Greinke. That would be essentially Roy Halladay and Travis Snider for Greinke.. doesn't sound so good if you're a Jays fan when you put it that way.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Analyzing Deals Made Thus Far
The most recent news that I saw this morning when I got in my office was that Colorado has extended an already lengthy contract to their uber-talented SS Troy Tulowitzki. There is no denying his talent, but locking ANYBODY up for ten years in a game where one wrong pivot, or one high and tight fastball can end a players career seems a little over the top. The interesting part is that it's not like Tulo is an ironman either, he has shown a proponence injuries over the course of his career. If he does stay relatively healthy, and by that I mean avoid any major injuries, it should be a great deal for Colorado, because guys with his talent and at the position he plays do not come around often. I have always been a fan of Tulo, mostly because he plays the game so hard, and you can tell he loves what he does. Maybe Hanley Ramirez can learn from this, but I doubt it.
I won't sugar coat it, the Dodgers messed up bigtime giving Juan Uribe a 3-year $21MM deal. Just another example (see Aubrey Huff) of a guy capitalizing on the spotlight of September and October. He posted several career high's, and his OBP is slightly above his batting average. I believe this is a gross way to overpay for a player who doesn't really offer a team any type of significant dynamic other than his ability to play multiple positions. The only real way Uribe could come close to keeping his value is if he plays SS, but with Furcal there for at least 2011, Uribe will most likely be used at 3B to platoon with the aggressively aging Casey Blake. That trade is looking better and better for Cleveland.
I see where the Florida Marlins are coming in signing Javier Vazquez to a 1-year $7MM deal with a full no-trade clause. In essence, the trade clause is meaningless because he is coming off of a bad year and if he were to get off to a bad start, his value would be zero. If he gets off to a good start, it's unlikely that Florida would trade him anyways due to the weakened lineup with the loss of Dan Uggla. Not only that, but if Vazquez has a bounceback year, he may choose to re-up with Florida at the end of the year, or they can let him walk and take the draft picks. With that said, I have a completely different perspective on the signing. My scouting report on Vazquez is this: it caught up. All those innings have taken a toll on his shoulder and I do not see him making large strides this year or any time in the future. The drop in veloctiy is one thing (not getting above 88MPH in most games last year), but his overall stuff looks flat. It was my impression that his arm was actually injured, but now that he has gone through a physical with Florida, it leads me to believe that this just may be the beginning of the end of Javier Vazquez as an effective MLB pitcher.
Another move by the Rockies was to re-acquire LHP Jorge De La Rosa. A 3-yr deal is about right, and this was a clear case of the imapact that his Type-A designation had.. which totally benefits the Rockies because their pitching staff is in rough shape. I am interested to see if they go after Brandon Webb, because any person with common sense can see how effective he would be in that stadium if he can regain his stuff. I have heard that it's not going all that well however. .
One last thing:
The Twins won the bidding rights to Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who they apparently want to play 2B to fill the void that Orlando Hudson is leaving via free agency. I watched some video on Nishioka, and he has a good stroke. He probably will have an issue with offspeed pitches down and away, as MLB pitchers have much better command and stuff. He stays far back on the ball and seems to explode out of his batting motion, so that will be interesting to watch.
Winter meetings are this week.. I expect to hear about a couple big trades maybe in the works. Keeping my eyes peeled!
I won't sugar coat it, the Dodgers messed up bigtime giving Juan Uribe a 3-year $21MM deal. Just another example (see Aubrey Huff) of a guy capitalizing on the spotlight of September and October. He posted several career high's, and his OBP is slightly above his batting average. I believe this is a gross way to overpay for a player who doesn't really offer a team any type of significant dynamic other than his ability to play multiple positions. The only real way Uribe could come close to keeping his value is if he plays SS, but with Furcal there for at least 2011, Uribe will most likely be used at 3B to platoon with the aggressively aging Casey Blake. That trade is looking better and better for Cleveland.
I see where the Florida Marlins are coming in signing Javier Vazquez to a 1-year $7MM deal with a full no-trade clause. In essence, the trade clause is meaningless because he is coming off of a bad year and if he were to get off to a bad start, his value would be zero. If he gets off to a good start, it's unlikely that Florida would trade him anyways due to the weakened lineup with the loss of Dan Uggla. Not only that, but if Vazquez has a bounceback year, he may choose to re-up with Florida at the end of the year, or they can let him walk and take the draft picks. With that said, I have a completely different perspective on the signing. My scouting report on Vazquez is this: it caught up. All those innings have taken a toll on his shoulder and I do not see him making large strides this year or any time in the future. The drop in veloctiy is one thing (not getting above 88MPH in most games last year), but his overall stuff looks flat. It was my impression that his arm was actually injured, but now that he has gone through a physical with Florida, it leads me to believe that this just may be the beginning of the end of Javier Vazquez as an effective MLB pitcher.
Another move by the Rockies was to re-acquire LHP Jorge De La Rosa. A 3-yr deal is about right, and this was a clear case of the imapact that his Type-A designation had.. which totally benefits the Rockies because their pitching staff is in rough shape. I am interested to see if they go after Brandon Webb, because any person with common sense can see how effective he would be in that stadium if he can regain his stuff. I have heard that it's not going all that well however. .
One last thing:
The Twins won the bidding rights to Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who they apparently want to play 2B to fill the void that Orlando Hudson is leaving via free agency. I watched some video on Nishioka, and he has a good stroke. He probably will have an issue with offspeed pitches down and away, as MLB pitchers have much better command and stuff. He stays far back on the ball and seems to explode out of his batting motion, so that will be interesting to watch.
Winter meetings are this week.. I expect to hear about a couple big trades maybe in the works. Keeping my eyes peeled!
Friday, November 12, 2010
The Rays and Marlins Have Work To Do
Just heard word that Dan Uggla turned down a pretty large contract offer from Florida. I find it pretty amazing that he is pushing it this far, and by all accounts has shot the trade value unless another team picks him up and is ready to dish out big dollars. He has some serious holes in his swing, and he has made some adjustments to fix a few of them.. but he is by no means a guy that you build your ballclub around, especially at his age. I'm pretty interested in watching what happens here. Florida has been opening themselves up to spending a few more dollars on established players, but this might be a time where their frugalness will pay off.
The Rays have a lot of work to do if they want to contend. If not, they can pack it in this year and try to play for next year. Either way, with a big pay cut coming (25%), and the loss of key players, they have a ton of work to do. Not only that but they have to be very creative in achieving the goals. Finding young talent on the cheap is not easy to do, and when you do find it, it costs a lot. Just how many of their starters are they willing to part with? Is now the time to move BJ Upton, or should the Rays hold onto him and hope he gets his act together? I would move him if it were me. Considering his production, you're better off having one of their platoon players (Rodriguez, Joyce, Brignac) fill the void if you want pitching back instead. It's possible that the Diamondbacks could come into the fold and have both Upton's playing in the outfield.
The Rays have a lot of work to do if they want to contend. If not, they can pack it in this year and try to play for next year. Either way, with a big pay cut coming (25%), and the loss of key players, they have a ton of work to do. Not only that but they have to be very creative in achieving the goals. Finding young talent on the cheap is not easy to do, and when you do find it, it costs a lot. Just how many of their starters are they willing to part with? Is now the time to move BJ Upton, or should the Rays hold onto him and hope he gets his act together? I would move him if it were me. Considering his production, you're better off having one of their platoon players (Rodriguez, Joyce, Brignac) fill the void if you want pitching back instead. It's possible that the Diamondbacks could come into the fold and have both Upton's playing in the outfield.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Hot Stove Officially Begins!
It's that time of year again. I find myself frequently clicking the refresh button on my baseball news sites. However, it's probably not necessary with twitter and other social media outlets, but it makes me feel a little oldschool so I will do it the old fashioned way.
There already seems to be a nationwide feeling of "what will happen after Cliff Lee signs with the yankees." If that is true, and the Yankees are the team to land Lee, I would watch Texas closely. They are in desperate need of an ace. This is how their rotation would shape up without Lee if the season were to start today. Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland and with the 5 spot taken up by a prospect. In all reality, if you're not getting Cliff Lee this offseason you're getting a complimentary piece. If you want impact from free agency this year it will have to be in the bullpen or in the outfield.
You can bet that if Lee signs in New York, that the rumor mill will start heating up in Kansas City. Texas would have to blow KC away with talent, and I'm not sure that they have the pieces to do so after the deal to bring Lee. Their minor system is deep, but not limitless.
Nobody should sleep on Anaheim. They are getting Kendry Morales back, they have major league depth at the catcher position that could easily be moved, and they have Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana at the top of the rotation. Carl Crawford is the perfect compliment to their team, and he is a dream player for Mike Soscia. If Arte Moreno is willing to put up the dollars to sign him, I think it's all but a lock that Crawford is an Angel in 2011.
This is totally out of my own speculation, but I could see Anaheim and the Dodgers getting together to make a deal this offseason. They are both West Coast, the Dodgers need a catcher and offense that Russell Martin could not provide, and Anaheim may look into taking a bat in return. Could possibly James Loney be involved?
To touch on the Red Sox a little more in depth:
I don't want to go off on a tangent here, but there is a growing trend in the Red Sox front office that does not bode well for the future of the organization. It seems as though Theo Epstein has a problem resisting temptation when a player is able to be acquired, regardless of the potential implications. Giving Ortiz the option at $12.5MM is a mistake in several different ways.
One being, he will most likely under perform the value of the contact. It's nice to have a player on a short deal, but $12.5 is grossly overpaying a player whom ultimately will probably not be back next season. He only appeals to a small group of teams, therefore if the Red Sox really wanted to keep him for a short term deal they could have let him go and then re-negotiated when he comes back crying.
Not only that, but the Red Sox are becoming an old team. Signs are pointing towards them being interested in Jason Werth. This would be a huge mistake in my opinion. I do not think that he would have success in the AL East. He strikes out a lot, and like Keith Law pointed out in his free agency breakdown, Werth has trouble already getting his hands through on pitches away. With his long lanky body, that will only become more difficult as he loses bat speed.
Re-signing Josh Beckett to the deal that the Red Sox did was a mistake, and I have been saying it since before they even started discussions with him. He has a ton of miles on his arm, and a delivery that doesn't finish cleanly. This year he started to implement a cutter into his arsenal, but he never located it well enough, or got late enough break from the pitch to make it effective. The only alternative he has is to work on his change up, and start to create a bigger differential between his fastball. Even if he accomplishes this, I can foresee some arm trouble starting to rear its ugly head. Bottom line is that this contract extension will come back to haunt the front office of the Red Sox for a long time to come.
There already seems to be a nationwide feeling of "what will happen after Cliff Lee signs with the yankees." If that is true, and the Yankees are the team to land Lee, I would watch Texas closely. They are in desperate need of an ace. This is how their rotation would shape up without Lee if the season were to start today. Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland and with the 5 spot taken up by a prospect. In all reality, if you're not getting Cliff Lee this offseason you're getting a complimentary piece. If you want impact from free agency this year it will have to be in the bullpen or in the outfield.
You can bet that if Lee signs in New York, that the rumor mill will start heating up in Kansas City. Texas would have to blow KC away with talent, and I'm not sure that they have the pieces to do so after the deal to bring Lee. Their minor system is deep, but not limitless.
Nobody should sleep on Anaheim. They are getting Kendry Morales back, they have major league depth at the catcher position that could easily be moved, and they have Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana at the top of the rotation. Carl Crawford is the perfect compliment to their team, and he is a dream player for Mike Soscia. If Arte Moreno is willing to put up the dollars to sign him, I think it's all but a lock that Crawford is an Angel in 2011.
This is totally out of my own speculation, but I could see Anaheim and the Dodgers getting together to make a deal this offseason. They are both West Coast, the Dodgers need a catcher and offense that Russell Martin could not provide, and Anaheim may look into taking a bat in return. Could possibly James Loney be involved?
To touch on the Red Sox a little more in depth:
I don't want to go off on a tangent here, but there is a growing trend in the Red Sox front office that does not bode well for the future of the organization. It seems as though Theo Epstein has a problem resisting temptation when a player is able to be acquired, regardless of the potential implications. Giving Ortiz the option at $12.5MM is a mistake in several different ways.
One being, he will most likely under perform the value of the contact. It's nice to have a player on a short deal, but $12.5 is grossly overpaying a player whom ultimately will probably not be back next season. He only appeals to a small group of teams, therefore if the Red Sox really wanted to keep him for a short term deal they could have let him go and then re-negotiated when he comes back crying.
Not only that, but the Red Sox are becoming an old team. Signs are pointing towards them being interested in Jason Werth. This would be a huge mistake in my opinion. I do not think that he would have success in the AL East. He strikes out a lot, and like Keith Law pointed out in his free agency breakdown, Werth has trouble already getting his hands through on pitches away. With his long lanky body, that will only become more difficult as he loses bat speed.
Re-signing Josh Beckett to the deal that the Red Sox did was a mistake, and I have been saying it since before they even started discussions with him. He has a ton of miles on his arm, and a delivery that doesn't finish cleanly. This year he started to implement a cutter into his arsenal, but he never located it well enough, or got late enough break from the pitch to make it effective. The only alternative he has is to work on his change up, and start to create a bigger differential between his fastball. Even if he accomplishes this, I can foresee some arm trouble starting to rear its ugly head. Bottom line is that this contract extension will come back to haunt the front office of the Red Sox for a long time to come.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
World Series wrap and David Ortiz
Congratulations to the SF Giants for doing something not many thought they could at the beginning of the year. They put together a team that got it done when it counted. They were definitely not the most talented, but timely hits to go along with good pitching can get it done in the playoffs. This was definitely the year of the pitcher.................and better testing. Tim Lincecum was as dominant as I have ever seen him in game 6. Cliff Lee showed (yet again) what happens to guys with stuff similar to his: When they are not on.. they get hit hard.
Rant of the day:
For the love of god, will somebody please pleas PLEASE! tell the Fox analysists to get this right: Tim Lincecum throws a split finger fastball.... not a changeup. His fingers may be marginally positioned diffferently than a straight splitter, but it still is a splitter. A two seam fastball and a circle change are not the same thing, even though they have the same type of action, and neither is a splitter and a straight change. The most amazing part is that they show slow motion close-ups of Lincecum throwing the pitch with a splitter grip, and they still go on and on about how it's the best change in the game. You have a whole offseason to figure this out, hopefully they get it right between now and spring training!!!
David Ortiz is having his option picked up by the Boston Red Sox, and what is largely becoming the most obvious example of terrible MLB-level talent scouting. Yesterday the guys on the big show at WEEI were laughing about how bad JP Riccardi was while he was in Toronto. While that may be true, he is no way worse than Theo Epstein. Difference being is that Theo can cover up his mistakes and get away with them. Riccardi's decisions were mostly "bad" because the players refused to play to their ability. Theo, however, has been compacting bad decision after bad decision by signing players who have already hit their peak value.
I plan on going into more depth about this subject in my next post. But my general opinion is that he is not helping the team, but merely doing a good enough job to not get fired... for now. By the way Red Sox fans, your farm system isn't even close to what most of you think it is.
Rant of the day:
For the love of god, will somebody please pleas PLEASE! tell the Fox analysists to get this right: Tim Lincecum throws a split finger fastball.... not a changeup. His fingers may be marginally positioned diffferently than a straight splitter, but it still is a splitter. A two seam fastball and a circle change are not the same thing, even though they have the same type of action, and neither is a splitter and a straight change. The most amazing part is that they show slow motion close-ups of Lincecum throwing the pitch with a splitter grip, and they still go on and on about how it's the best change in the game. You have a whole offseason to figure this out, hopefully they get it right between now and spring training!!!
David Ortiz is having his option picked up by the Boston Red Sox, and what is largely becoming the most obvious example of terrible MLB-level talent scouting. Yesterday the guys on the big show at WEEI were laughing about how bad JP Riccardi was while he was in Toronto. While that may be true, he is no way worse than Theo Epstein. Difference being is that Theo can cover up his mistakes and get away with them. Riccardi's decisions were mostly "bad" because the players refused to play to their ability. Theo, however, has been compacting bad decision after bad decision by signing players who have already hit their peak value.
I plan on going into more depth about this subject in my next post. But my general opinion is that he is not helping the team, but merely doing a good enough job to not get fired... for now. By the way Red Sox fans, your farm system isn't even close to what most of you think it is.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Bumgarner dominant in Game 4 win; Rangers on their heels
I was totally taken back by how dominant Madison Bumgarner was against the potent Rangers offense. When I scouted Bumgarner when he was called up, his stuff was almost identical to how it is now, and I was not impressed. He didn't have particularly good depth on any of his offspeed stuff, and his fastball seemed to be average. It simply has to be the angle that the baseball comes out of his hand, because he was baffling the Texas lineup all night. It has been a long time since I have seen a hitter look as bad as Vlad did against Bumgarner, and it wasn't just once, or twice.
I did notice one thing however. Bumgarner is tipping his pitches. This is the second big league starter this year that I have spotted doing something very obvious in his delivery that nobody else but myself has picked up on. Clay Buccholz of the Boston Red Sox tips his pitches by the degree at which his left leg bends. He has a sharper angle at the apex when he is throwing something hard (4-seamer, slider) and it is less of a hard angle when he throws a curve and changeup.
Last night, Bumgarner was tipping his pitches with his right foot. When he is throwing hard, the foot opens earlier in his delivery to create the harder force going foward. When he is throwing something offspeed, his foot stays closed until the last second.
Take a look for yourself and watch some game video of both pitchers and you will see exactly what I mean.
Tonight is the holy grail of pitching matchups. Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee.
I have been off in most of my predictions in this years world series, but I think it's just because the Texas pitching staff is tired. Don't forget, CJ Wilson is a MLB veteran, but as a setup guy. He is way ahead of his innings total and is most likely losing strength. Tommy Hunter is just who he is, an average pitcher who has trouble getting through the lineup after a few looks. He just doesn't have the stuff to get through a good lineup the 3rd time through. Colby Lewis is a smart pitcher, who has great poise. He cannot get it done all by himself though.
Game 5 Prediction:
Texas wins 6-4
Lincecum 6IP 6h 3ER
Lee 7IP 7h 2ER
Game 7 here we come!
I did notice one thing however. Bumgarner is tipping his pitches. This is the second big league starter this year that I have spotted doing something very obvious in his delivery that nobody else but myself has picked up on. Clay Buccholz of the Boston Red Sox tips his pitches by the degree at which his left leg bends. He has a sharper angle at the apex when he is throwing something hard (4-seamer, slider) and it is less of a hard angle when he throws a curve and changeup.
Last night, Bumgarner was tipping his pitches with his right foot. When he is throwing hard, the foot opens earlier in his delivery to create the harder force going foward. When he is throwing something offspeed, his foot stays closed until the last second.
Take a look for yourself and watch some game video of both pitchers and you will see exactly what I mean.
Tonight is the holy grail of pitching matchups. Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee.
I have been off in most of my predictions in this years world series, but I think it's just because the Texas pitching staff is tired. Don't forget, CJ Wilson is a MLB veteran, but as a setup guy. He is way ahead of his innings total and is most likely losing strength. Tommy Hunter is just who he is, an average pitcher who has trouble getting through the lineup after a few looks. He just doesn't have the stuff to get through a good lineup the 3rd time through. Colby Lewis is a smart pitcher, who has great poise. He cannot get it done all by himself though.
Game 5 Prediction:
Texas wins 6-4
Lincecum 6IP 6h 3ER
Lee 7IP 7h 2ER
Game 7 here we come!
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Game 1 Reaction, and Preview of Game 2
Well, I guess it's pretty obvious to say that everyone was surprised about the amount of offensive production that came from game 1. The Giants are one of those teams that can blow up if you miss your spots and leave balls over the plate. That's exactly what Cliff Lee did, and because he doesn't have power stuff, he paid for it dearly. This was a reminder to all of those teams sitting with blank checks, that power stuff can get by on off days.
There will be a lot of people who think that the power has shifted to the Giants advantage, but I would not be so quick on that assumption. I think CJ Wilson pitches well tonight, and I think he is a great matchup against San Fran. He can be a little on the wild side, but SF's offense strikes out a lot and are willing to chase out of the zone. Matt Cain is a phenominal pitcher, and he doesn't get the credit he deserves because he is on the same team as Tim Lincecum.
Game 2 Prediction:
Rangers win 4-2
Wilson: 6IP 6h 8k 2ER
Cain: 7IP 7h 7k 3ER
There will be a lot of people who think that the power has shifted to the Giants advantage, but I would not be so quick on that assumption. I think CJ Wilson pitches well tonight, and I think he is a great matchup against San Fran. He can be a little on the wild side, but SF's offense strikes out a lot and are willing to chase out of the zone. Matt Cain is a phenominal pitcher, and he doesn't get the credit he deserves because he is on the same team as Tim Lincecum.
Game 2 Prediction:
Rangers win 4-2
Wilson: 6IP 6h 8k 2ER
Cain: 7IP 7h 7k 3ER
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
World Series Predictions and Breakdowns
Game 1 is tonight, and I doubt anyone saw this one coming. To the few who bet that Texas and San Francisco would make it to the world series, spend it wisely!
A lot has been made in the media about game one and how dominant that Cliff Lee has been. The most amazing stat are the splits between lefties and righties. San Francisco is almost exclusively right-handed hitting team. To add to it, the ballpark is not hitter-friendly so a guy like Lee will do well even if the hitters get a few good swings on him. Lincecum is a strikeout pitcher who has trouble locating at times. He often gets his body out in front of him and leaves pitches up. He gets by because of the incredible movement, but you can only hang so many pitches before someone hits you hard. Texas' lineup is too powerful, and it has extra-base hitters from top to bottom.
Game 1 Prediction:
Rangers win 5-0
Lee: 8IP 5h 10k
Lincecum: 5 1/3 IP 7h 4ER 8K
Interesting point by an ESPN analyist on Baseball Tonight.. he thinks SF should go with Jonathan Sanchez in game 1, followed by Lincecum and Cain. That's an interesting perspective, but think about it from the manager and players point of view. It's not as if Texas is a heavy left-handed team.. so it would be pretty obvious that the manager would be saying "hey guys, give up tonight and lets go at it tomorrow". Is it a good idea? Sure, it is Cliff Lee after all. However, pulling it off may not be the best idea.
A lot has been made in the media about game one and how dominant that Cliff Lee has been. The most amazing stat are the splits between lefties and righties. San Francisco is almost exclusively right-handed hitting team. To add to it, the ballpark is not hitter-friendly so a guy like Lee will do well even if the hitters get a few good swings on him. Lincecum is a strikeout pitcher who has trouble locating at times. He often gets his body out in front of him and leaves pitches up. He gets by because of the incredible movement, but you can only hang so many pitches before someone hits you hard. Texas' lineup is too powerful, and it has extra-base hitters from top to bottom.
Game 1 Prediction:
Rangers win 5-0
Lee: 8IP 5h 10k
Lincecum: 5 1/3 IP 7h 4ER 8K
Interesting point by an ESPN analyist on Baseball Tonight.. he thinks SF should go with Jonathan Sanchez in game 1, followed by Lincecum and Cain. That's an interesting perspective, but think about it from the manager and players point of view. It's not as if Texas is a heavy left-handed team.. so it would be pretty obvious that the manager would be saying "hey guys, give up tonight and lets go at it tomorrow". Is it a good idea? Sure, it is Cliff Lee after all. However, pulling it off may not be the best idea.
Monday, July 26, 2010
The deadline approaches.. Dan Haren is shipped to Anaheim
The trade deadline is fast approaching for the 2010 MLB season, and only one big deal has been made thus far. The Arizona Diamondbacks moved Dan Haren to the Anaheim Angels for a return of Joe Saunders, Pat Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and a player to be named later (Jason Grey of ESPN.com reports that the player will most likely be Tyler Skaggs).
When I originally heard the report of the trade it was stated as "Joe Saunders, two relief pitchers and a player to be named", so my first thoughts were that it would be one of Anaheim's power arms in the bullpen. I was far off on that assumption, and feel that Arizona did not ask for a return that your normally see in an elite pitcher. Haren has always been dominant, and last year he proved that yet again by having one of the lowest WHIP's in the NL. He is still relatively young, and relatively affordable. Although I am not an expert on the Anaheim minor's system, I am familiar with their top flight talent and projected impact players. I was surprised when I heard the names announced.
Upon further consideration, my hunch is that Arizona may be aware that Haren is injured in some way. Although he did pass his physical, he could have some type of injury that flies under the radar. There have been reports that Haren's stuff has been called "flat". It could be an injury, or he simply could be losing interest while playing for one of the worst teams in the NL. Either way, this trade is a no-brainer for Anaheim. Saunders is not an impact player, and he is not incredibly cheap either.
I have always been under the impression that when you move a top-flight talent (like Haren) that you get at least two projectable major league impact players in return, but this deal changes that. Word is that this trade sets the market low for other starters around the league, but I am not so sure about that. This may be just another questionable move by the Arizona front office.
When I originally heard the report of the trade it was stated as "Joe Saunders, two relief pitchers and a player to be named", so my first thoughts were that it would be one of Anaheim's power arms in the bullpen. I was far off on that assumption, and feel that Arizona did not ask for a return that your normally see in an elite pitcher. Haren has always been dominant, and last year he proved that yet again by having one of the lowest WHIP's in the NL. He is still relatively young, and relatively affordable. Although I am not an expert on the Anaheim minor's system, I am familiar with their top flight talent and projected impact players. I was surprised when I heard the names announced.
Upon further consideration, my hunch is that Arizona may be aware that Haren is injured in some way. Although he did pass his physical, he could have some type of injury that flies under the radar. There have been reports that Haren's stuff has been called "flat". It could be an injury, or he simply could be losing interest while playing for one of the worst teams in the NL. Either way, this trade is a no-brainer for Anaheim. Saunders is not an impact player, and he is not incredibly cheap either.
I have always been under the impression that when you move a top-flight talent (like Haren) that you get at least two projectable major league impact players in return, but this deal changes that. Word is that this trade sets the market low for other starters around the league, but I am not so sure about that. This may be just another questionable move by the Arizona front office.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
What to do in Tampa
In an era where scouting has become more and more of a science, rather than an art, there is becoming less and less of the overlooked finds that some teams stumble upon. The draft is becoming more and more "solved", and teams are addressing their needs more efficiently. The Tampa Bay Rays are showing that with a couple strings of high picks, any franchise can be turned around regardless of budget. Their starting rotation has been blowing opposing teams away since day one of the regular season, and they look to be the team everyone thought they would and more. James Shields continues to pitch above his expected level of success at the big league level. David Price is showing why he was the number one overall pick by becoming the AL's first 9-game winner. Jeff Niemann is 6-0 and posting up some incredibly impressive numbers. He is by far the biggest suprise in the rotation to those who follow by name only. Wade Davis has struggled lately, but still has great stuff and two put-away pitches. Matt Garza is commanding his filthy stuff, and making the Twins wish he was back in town with every start he makes. But there's more...
Jeremy Hellickson is sitting down in the Rays AAA affiliate and is making a name for himself. Any other team in baseball would have Hellickson in their rotation and he would probably be their number 2 or 3 starter. However, Tampa Bay's rotation is full, and aside from Wade Davis' recent struggles, it looks like there is no room for this phenom. I tend to do my own scouting on players, and use others reports as a supplement to my own observations, but the record on Hellickson is pretty strong from top to bottom.
Hellickson possesses a complete arsenal of pitches. His fastball sits at the low 90's, and it doesn't have particularly good movement, but he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He can also use a two-seam grip to induce groundballs, which is important, because Hellickson's real doozy is his changeup. His change has incredible depth to it, and he has great arm action, adding to the deception. It absolutely dominates left handers, and gets righties out with equal effectiveness. He will occasionally mix in a curve that has pretty good movement, but not as dominant as his counterpart in the big leagues, Wade Davis. Hellickson throws from a three quarters arm slot, and by watching video on him, you can see that with this arm slot he is able to make his excellent change move down and away from lefties and down and in on righties. I have also seen him take away some of the fade vs. righties and make it drop more downwards. Right now Hellickson is 8-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 12 starts in the minors, with an impressive K-BB ratio.
With impending free agents Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Rays are in an interesting position. They will ultimately let Crawford leave to free agency, as he is expected to command large dollars and the team owner has already stated that he is going to cut payroll after this year. Remember, they still have 8 million on the books for Pat Burrell. Desmond Jennings will almost surely fill the gap that Crawford will leave in the outfield. This will leave a big hole at 1B, a position that is hard to fill if you're a low payroll club competing in the AL East. As it looks right now, nobody in the starting rotation is slowing down. This might open the window for the Rays front office to move one of their starters. If they were to do that, they would surely be able to pry away a slugger that they will need to bat behind Evan Longoria. Could the Dodgers be calling and dangling James Loney? He will come relatively cheap, and he will fill at least the defensive ability that Pena has provided at first for the Rays. They could look to fill the offense internally with the infield/outfield logjam they have with Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings. If not the Dodgers, there are a host of teams that would come calling if the Rays put one of their young talented starters on the market.
Jeremy Hellickson is sitting down in the Rays AAA affiliate and is making a name for himself. Any other team in baseball would have Hellickson in their rotation and he would probably be their number 2 or 3 starter. However, Tampa Bay's rotation is full, and aside from Wade Davis' recent struggles, it looks like there is no room for this phenom. I tend to do my own scouting on players, and use others reports as a supplement to my own observations, but the record on Hellickson is pretty strong from top to bottom.
With impending free agents Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Rays are in an interesting position. They will ultimately let Crawford leave to free agency, as he is expected to command large dollars and the team owner has already stated that he is going to cut payroll after this year. Remember, they still have 8 million on the books for Pat Burrell. Desmond Jennings will almost surely fill the gap that Crawford will leave in the outfield. This will leave a big hole at 1B, a position that is hard to fill if you're a low payroll club competing in the AL East. As it looks right now, nobody in the starting rotation is slowing down. This might open the window for the Rays front office to move one of their starters. If they were to do that, they would surely be able to pry away a slugger that they will need to bat behind Evan Longoria. Could the Dodgers be calling and dangling James Loney? He will come relatively cheap, and he will fill at least the defensive ability that Pena has provided at first for the Rays. They could look to fill the offense internally with the infield/outfield logjam they have with Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings. If not the Dodgers, there are a host of teams that would come calling if the Rays put one of their young talented starters on the market.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Put up or shut up!
It's about 60 games through the regular season, and there have been some pretty exciting developments thus far. Every season there are always teams that start hot, cold and just don't do anything special. One amazing thing is just how close the teams are in basically every division, and I don't think that's just a coincidence. With the development of teams using statistical analysis, there seems to be a closer gap between the talent level and ability to fill gaps on the major league level. Instead of losing a big free agent and wondering what they will do, a lot of teams have a game plan set up with tiers of talent in the minors.
The big developments through the beginning of May:
1. Ryan Howard signs 5-year $125MM extension with the Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are one of the few clubs that openly admit/pronounce that they do not have a single person in their front office that uses statistical analysis to make their player personnel decisions. How they can go that route is beyond me, but that's their claim, regardless if it is true.That said, Ryan Howard is one of the elite talents in baseball. His power, regardless if it regresses a bit, will still provide plenty in the park that he plays 82 games a year in. His defense has improved and he is still working on it. He has also cut down his strikeouts, but he's strong enough to still provide the offensive production when he lets the ball get deeper in the zone. The interesting part is that he still had two years left in his original extension. This also essentially waves goodbye to Jason Werth, another guy who has made vast improvements and has a plus arm in right field. There is a possibility that Ruben Amaro JR. decided that he wants as much cost certainty going forward. The thing that puzzles me is that they fell in love with the player, and went out and did whatever they could to keep him. That is nice for Philly fans, but I cannot concieve Howard keeping his value through the length of the deal. He will be in his mid-30's when it is up, and we have seen the deterioration of heavy-set power hitters once they hit their early-to-mid 30's. He is the second best hitter on the team, so it will be interesting to see what direction Philly goes in from here.
2. The San Diego Padres are leading the division
You heard me, the Padres have finally gotten some production in the offense from somebody not named Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley has gotten off to a good start, and the pitching staff has been solid from top to bottom.The bullpen is one of the best in the game, so it's concievable that they could continue to win games with a small margin, but I can't see this lasting much longer. The interesting part of this all is not their record, but the position that GM Jed Hoyer is in. If he had a reconstruction plan built in the offseason, he will be facing major pressure from the owners and fans if he blows the team up now. He still has to do it, and the sooner the better. He may be able to trade Adrian Gonzalez and spin him for major league ready talent. That will set up the team for success, and put the fans at ease if they can see the immedate return on losing their star player.
3. The AL East
The Tampa Bay Rays have started out on fire and taken hold of the AL East. Their starting pitching looks incredible from top to bottom. Both David Price and Wade Davis have established themselves beyond their hype and provided the power pitching needed to succeed in the toughest division in baseball. Don't forget about the Yankees however. Robinson Cano is the AL MVP thus far. Joe Girardi slid him into the 5-hole behind both Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and he has been providing incredible production ever since. Phil Hughes looks like a burgeoning ace, who commands his pitches well and has a deep arsenal of pitches and looks he can provide to hitters. Even with Hughes developing, recent acquisition Javier Vazquez has been down right awful. His stuff is still there, but he just cannot get pitches by AL East hitters and has left a few hanging sliders up in the zone in all the worst times. He finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last year with the Braves and he still certainly has the stuff and potential to be successful, but he has to get himself together because he is the key to that rotation.
4. The Colorado Rockies look gooooooooooood...
They have such a great mix of talent on their team. Carlos Gonzalez has been incredible for them, continuing the success he had in the second half last year and adding another talented bat to their outfield mix. Ubaldo Jimenez has been out of this world and has an arsenal of stuff that is rivaled by nobody in baseball. Their bullpen is about to get a bit stronger with Huston Street returning from injury, and slotting their setup guys where they belong. Jhoulys Chacin made a start last week and looked incredible, stating why he is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. It will be interesting to see if he can be consistent and command his offspeed stuff, because that has been the only thing holding him back from being a complete pitcher and an ace.
I would touch on the Red Sox and their slow start, but there's nothing really to say. They have played how I predicted them to... nothing special. Their farm system is quite overrated, and it looks as though they will have to buy the players they will need to improve.
Enjoy the season, and next column will most likely be about Roy Halladay and his transition to the NL. Also, how the Cliff Lee swap sets both teams up for the future.
The big developments through the beginning of May:
1. Ryan Howard signs 5-year $125MM extension with the Philadelphia Phillies
2. The San Diego Padres are leading the division
You heard me, the Padres have finally gotten some production in the offense from somebody not named Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley has gotten off to a good start, and the pitching staff has been solid from top to bottom.The bullpen is one of the best in the game, so it's concievable that they could continue to win games with a small margin, but I can't see this lasting much longer. The interesting part of this all is not their record, but the position that GM Jed Hoyer is in. If he had a reconstruction plan built in the offseason, he will be facing major pressure from the owners and fans if he blows the team up now. He still has to do it, and the sooner the better. He may be able to trade Adrian Gonzalez and spin him for major league ready talent. That will set up the team for success, and put the fans at ease if they can see the immedate return on losing their star player.
3. The AL East
The Tampa Bay Rays have started out on fire and taken hold of the AL East. Their starting pitching looks incredible from top to bottom. Both David Price and Wade Davis have established themselves beyond their hype and provided the power pitching needed to succeed in the toughest division in baseball. Don't forget about the Yankees however. Robinson Cano is the AL MVP thus far. Joe Girardi slid him into the 5-hole behind both Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira and he has been providing incredible production ever since. Phil Hughes looks like a burgeoning ace, who commands his pitches well and has a deep arsenal of pitches and looks he can provide to hitters. Even with Hughes developing, recent acquisition Javier Vazquez has been down right awful. His stuff is still there, but he just cannot get pitches by AL East hitters and has left a few hanging sliders up in the zone in all the worst times. He finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last year with the Braves and he still certainly has the stuff and potential to be successful, but he has to get himself together because he is the key to that rotation.
4. The Colorado Rockies look gooooooooooood...
I would touch on the Red Sox and their slow start, but there's nothing really to say. They have played how I predicted them to... nothing special. Their farm system is quite overrated, and it looks as though they will have to buy the players they will need to improve.
Enjoy the season, and next column will most likely be about Roy Halladay and his transition to the NL. Also, how the Cliff Lee swap sets both teams up for the future.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Right on the verge...
Here in New England we really appreciate it when the spring season creeps up on us. To those of you on the west coast, or in places that have generally warm climate all year, it's probably hard to imagine how we get excited at the thought of 50 degree weather. To me this signals more than grass growing, flowers pushing through the previously frozen earth, and ice cream stands prepping for another busy season. To me it signals only one thing: opening day.
Don't get me wrong, I love the hotstove and trade rumors as much, if not more, than the average baseball fan. In fact, the promise that the next season is coming around the corner is probably what gets me through all the miserable weather. However, there's nothing that compares to watching real games and seeing the talent put to good use.
So now comes the time for my first MLB Perspectives predictions!
A.L. West- There has been a lot of movement in this division this offseason. Seattle has made an aggressive push to make their mark in a division largely owned by the Angels over the past 5 years. I am not a believer, however, and a lot of the projections out there give me reason to believe that Seattle will finish behind Anaheim again this year. If they get out to a slow start, look to see both Cliff Lee and Jose Lopez on the trading block.
A.L. Central- I will keep this one short and simple. The Chicago White Sox are the class of this division. With a full year of Jake Peavy and another year of experience for John Danks and Gavin Floyd, this team is in position to dominate their division all year long.
A.L. East- Yankees win! Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees.. Winnn! Get the point yet? With the addition of Javier Vazquez, the Bronx Bombers have gotten stronger even with the exit of Johnny Damon. One thing to watch for is the health of Derek Jeter. If he were to go down that would be the biggest loss for the team aside from A-Rod going down again. I don't think the Red Sox are going to put up close to the numbers needed to win in this division, even with their improved defense and pitching.
N.L. West- It breaks my heart to see what is going on in Dodger nation. The divorce of the McCourt's couldn't have come at a worse time. They have budding stars on the cheap, and these kind of windows with this kind of talent don't come around often.. just ask the Florida Marlins. The addition of Edwin Jackson, a return of a healthy Brandon Webb and a more mature Stephen Drew spells a division championship for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Oh yeah, don't forget about Dan Haren. His year in 2009 was amazing, posting a flat 1.00 WHIP. He doesn't get the hype since his move to Arizona, but he is one of the games best and has plenty of experience to build on coming from the amazing staff back with the Oakland A's.
N.L. East- The Mets will be a strong team with the return of a healthy Carlos Beltran, but I think the Florida Marlins will squeeze out a tight race here. Josh Johnson is an elite ace, and the team is becoming more well-rounded offensively. Leo Nunez is going to earn his money this year. He will most likely be put in a lot of high-pressure scenario's.
N.L. Central- Not much to say here.. The St. Louis Cardinals are head and shoulders above everyone else in this division. Everybody has short memory though, because it seems everyone has forgotten about the sketchy health past of Chris Carpenter. Without him, they will struggle. With him, they easily walk away with the division. Felipe Lopez adds a lot of depth, and Albert Pujols is the best hitter (in my opinion) of all-time.
I will do a season-ending checkup to see how I did.
Stay tuned for the next entry, where I will go over my fantasy draft in my keeper league, and touch upon some of my impressions of a few impressive rookies already making a name for themselves.
Don't get me wrong, I love the hotstove and trade rumors as much, if not more, than the average baseball fan. In fact, the promise that the next season is coming around the corner is probably what gets me through all the miserable weather. However, there's nothing that compares to watching real games and seeing the talent put to good use.
So now comes the time for my first MLB Perspectives predictions!
A.L. West- There has been a lot of movement in this division this offseason. Seattle has made an aggressive push to make their mark in a division largely owned by the Angels over the past 5 years. I am not a believer, however, and a lot of the projections out there give me reason to believe that Seattle will finish behind Anaheim again this year. If they get out to a slow start, look to see both Cliff Lee and Jose Lopez on the trading block.
A.L. Central- I will keep this one short and simple. The Chicago White Sox are the class of this division. With a full year of Jake Peavy and another year of experience for John Danks and Gavin Floyd, this team is in position to dominate their division all year long.
A.L. East- Yankees win! Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees.. Winnn! Get the point yet? With the addition of Javier Vazquez, the Bronx Bombers have gotten stronger even with the exit of Johnny Damon. One thing to watch for is the health of Derek Jeter. If he were to go down that would be the biggest loss for the team aside from A-Rod going down again. I don't think the Red Sox are going to put up close to the numbers needed to win in this division, even with their improved defense and pitching.
N.L. West- It breaks my heart to see what is going on in Dodger nation. The divorce of the McCourt's couldn't have come at a worse time. They have budding stars on the cheap, and these kind of windows with this kind of talent don't come around often.. just ask the Florida Marlins. The addition of Edwin Jackson, a return of a healthy Brandon Webb and a more mature Stephen Drew spells a division championship for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Oh yeah, don't forget about Dan Haren. His year in 2009 was amazing, posting a flat 1.00 WHIP. He doesn't get the hype since his move to Arizona, but he is one of the games best and has plenty of experience to build on coming from the amazing staff back with the Oakland A's.
N.L. East- The Mets will be a strong team with the return of a healthy Carlos Beltran, but I think the Florida Marlins will squeeze out a tight race here. Josh Johnson is an elite ace, and the team is becoming more well-rounded offensively. Leo Nunez is going to earn his money this year. He will most likely be put in a lot of high-pressure scenario's.
N.L. Central- Not much to say here.. The St. Louis Cardinals are head and shoulders above everyone else in this division. Everybody has short memory though, because it seems everyone has forgotten about the sketchy health past of Chris Carpenter. Without him, they will struggle. With him, they easily walk away with the division. Felipe Lopez adds a lot of depth, and Albert Pujols is the best hitter (in my opinion) of all-time.
I will do a season-ending checkup to see how I did.
Stay tuned for the next entry, where I will go over my fantasy draft in my keeper league, and touch upon some of my impressions of a few impressive rookies already making a name for themselves.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Having a little fun with fantasy predictions!
On ESPN.com, the lead writers were all given the same questions about predictions for the 2010 MLB baseball season. I decided that I would give myself the same quiz and post my answers with an explanation. Enjoy!
Your fondest sports wish for 2010 is:
To see some resolution to the World Baseball Classic scheduling. I could go on and on about how much I support the idea of this tournament and how great it is for the game.
Why will this happen/not happen?
Baseball is a business and the owners have a lot invested in the players that take part in the tournament. Injury risk will always be the issue, but hopefully not the reason why it does or does not succeed.
Any sport, who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2010?
James Loney - He has the smoothe stroke and the body to be an impact player, we'll see if he figures it out.
Any sport, which player do you fear will let you down, but you feel compelled to keep drafting him anyway?
Alex Rios - He is the ultimate tease in my eyes and the eyes of a lot of scouts.
Which player has let you down one to many times and is now "dead to you?"
Jhonny Peralta
Who will be ...
... The second player taken in fantasy leagues? Hanley Ramirez.
... The first starting pitcher? Tim Lincecum
... The first closer? Jonathan Papelbon
... The second catcher? Victor Martinez
... The AL MVP? Joe Mauer
... The NL MVP? Albert Pujols - Durrr.. he's the best player in the game, and probably the best hitter of all time.
... The AL Cy Young? Zack Greinke.. he goes for the repeat! Last year was not a fluke!
... The NL Cy Young? Roy Halladay - And I don't think this one will be even close.
... The AL Rookie of the Year? Brett Wallace
... The NL Rookie of the Year? Stephen Strasburg
... The fantasy baseball MVP (most value for draft position)? Nick Johnson
... The highest-rated player on Player Rater? Albert Pujols
The Name Game ...
Which player would you rather draft in 2010?
Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez? A-Rod
Tim Lincecum or Zack Greinke? Lincecum, but it's not Greinke's fault he's on the worst team in baseball.
Roy Halladay or Chris Carpenter? Halladay
Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp? Braun
Yovani Gallardo or Josh Johnson? Johnson.. I think he falls just short of Halladay in the Cy voting this year.
Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard? Howard, he's making some really impressive adjustments at the plate.
Adam Lind or Josh Hamilton? Lind, it's not a question of talent, because if so Hamilton would win by a mile.
Aaron Hill or Ben Zobrist? Hill
Evan Longoria or Mark Teixeira? Teixeira... Longoria's supporting cast is the difference.
Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Broxton? Rivera.
Playing with Numbers:
Predict the 2010 stat.
Roy Halladay wins:21
Cliff Lee wins: 18
Mark Reynolds home runs and batting average: 34, .268.
Joe Mauer's batting average and home runs: .335, 27.
Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki's stolen bases: 27, 30.
Matt Capps saves: 12
Javier Vazquez wins, ERA and WHIP: 17, 4.07, 1.27
Stephen Strasburg's wins, ERA and WHIP: 6, 4.58, 1.18
Grady Sizemore's HR/SB: 18/20
Alfonso Soriano's average draft position:65
Your fondest sports wish for 2010 is:
To see some resolution to the World Baseball Classic scheduling. I could go on and on about how much I support the idea of this tournament and how great it is for the game.
Why will this happen/not happen?
Baseball is a business and the owners have a lot invested in the players that take part in the tournament. Injury risk will always be the issue, but hopefully not the reason why it does or does not succeed.
Any sport, who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2010?
James Loney - He has the smoothe stroke and the body to be an impact player, we'll see if he figures it out.
Any sport, which player do you fear will let you down, but you feel compelled to keep drafting him anyway?
Alex Rios - He is the ultimate tease in my eyes and the eyes of a lot of scouts.
Which player has let you down one to many times and is now "dead to you?"
Jhonny Peralta
Who will be ...
... The second player taken in fantasy leagues? Hanley Ramirez.
... The first starting pitcher? Tim Lincecum
... The first closer? Jonathan Papelbon
... The second catcher? Victor Martinez
... The AL MVP? Joe Mauer
... The NL MVP? Albert Pujols - Durrr.. he's the best player in the game, and probably the best hitter of all time.
... The AL Cy Young? Zack Greinke.. he goes for the repeat! Last year was not a fluke!
... The NL Cy Young? Roy Halladay - And I don't think this one will be even close.
... The AL Rookie of the Year? Brett Wallace
... The NL Rookie of the Year? Stephen Strasburg
... The fantasy baseball MVP (most value for draft position)? Nick Johnson
... The highest-rated player on Player Rater? Albert Pujols
The Name Game ...
Which player would you rather draft in 2010?
Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez? A-Rod
Tim Lincecum or Zack Greinke? Lincecum, but it's not Greinke's fault he's on the worst team in baseball.
Roy Halladay or Chris Carpenter? Halladay
Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp? Braun
Yovani Gallardo or Josh Johnson? Johnson.. I think he falls just short of Halladay in the Cy voting this year.
Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard? Howard, he's making some really impressive adjustments at the plate.
Adam Lind or Josh Hamilton? Lind, it's not a question of talent, because if so Hamilton would win by a mile.
Aaron Hill or Ben Zobrist? Hill
Evan Longoria or Mark Teixeira? Teixeira... Longoria's supporting cast is the difference.
Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Broxton? Rivera.
Playing with Numbers:
Predict the 2010 stat.
Roy Halladay wins:21
Cliff Lee wins: 18
Mark Reynolds home runs and batting average: 34, .268.
Joe Mauer's batting average and home runs: .335, 27.
Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki's stolen bases: 27, 30.
Matt Capps saves: 12
Javier Vazquez wins, ERA and WHIP: 17, 4.07, 1.27
Stephen Strasburg's wins, ERA and WHIP: 6, 4.58, 1.18
Grady Sizemore's HR/SB: 18/20
Alfonso Soriano's average draft position:65
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